IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v60y2024ics1544612323012655.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are markets in happier countries less affected by tragic events? Evidence from market reaction to the Israel–Hamas conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Pandey, Dharen Kumar
  • Kumari, Vineeta
  • Palma, Alessia
  • Goodell, John W.

Abstract

Do happier people care more, or less, about other people's problems? Indirectly to this question we investigate whether markets in happier countries are less affected by tragic events. Using a sample of 71 global stock market indices, we employ an event study method to analyze the immediate impact of the Israel–Hamas conflict on stock market returns. We find that stock indices from happier nations are more resilient to this geopolitical event. While the overall cumulative effect of the war remained largely negative, the Europe, Middle East, and Africa markets demonstrated heightened vulnerability to the conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta & Palma, Alessia & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Are markets in happier countries less affected by tragic events? Evidence from market reaction to the Israel–Hamas conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:60:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323012655
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104893
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323012655
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104893?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    2. Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003. "What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," Research Papers 1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. Cahit Guven, 2009. "Weather and Financial Risk-Taking: Is Happiness the Channel?," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 218, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    4. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Pengfei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2018. "Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment and international stock returns: Evidence from linear and nonlinear causality tests," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 50-53.
    6. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2021. "Event study on the reaction of the developed and emerging stock markets to the 2019-nCoV outbreak," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 467-483.
    7. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2016. "Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 295-308.
    8. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Nasreen, Samia & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2020. "Time-varying co-movements between energy market and global financial markets: Implication for portfolio diversification and hedging strategies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Ekta Sikarwar, 2021. "Time-varying foreign currency risk of world tourism industry: effects of COVID-19," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7), pages 887-891, April.
    10. Hassan, M Kabir & Boubaker, Sabri & Kumari, Vineeta & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Border disputes and heterogeneous sectoral returns: An event study approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Yousaf, Imran & Patel, Ritesh & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia–Ukraine conflict “black-swan” event: Evidence from event study approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    12. Lo, Gaye-Del & Marcelin, Isaac & Bassène, Théophile & Sène, Babacar, 2022. "The Russo-Ukrainian war and financial markets: the role of dependence on Russian commodities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    13. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Gozgor, Giray & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Impact of Russia-Ukraine war attention on cryptocurrency: Evidence from quantile dependence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Al-Hajieh, Heitham & Redhead, Keith & Rodgers, Timothy, 2011. "Investor sentiment and calendar anomaly effects: A case study of the impact of Ramadan on Islamic Middle Eastern markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 345-356, September.
    15. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Hassan, M.Kabir & Kumari, Vineeta & Hasan, Rashedul, 2023. "Repercussions of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse on global stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    16. Shaista Wasiuzzaman & Noura Abdullah Al-Musehel, 2018. "Mood, religious experience and the Ramadan effect," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(1), pages 290-307, January.
    17. Falato, Antonio, 2009. "Happiness maintenance and asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1247-1262, June.
    18. Li, Yue & W. Goodell, John & Shen, Dehua, 2021. "Does happiness forecast implied volatility? Evidence from nonparametric wave-based Granger causality testing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 113-122.
    19. Corbet, Shaen & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Meegan, Andrew, 2018. "Long-term stock market volatility and the influence of terrorist attacks in Europe," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-131.
    20. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    21. Bouri, Elie & Demirer, Riza & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Financial market connectedness: The role of investors’ happiness," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    22. Brian M. Lucey & Michael Dowling, 2005. "The Role of Feelings in Investor Decision‐Making," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 211-237, April.
    23. Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Xue, Mei & Zhang, Wei, 2017. "Daily happiness and stock returns: The case of Chinese company listed in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 496-501.
    24. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    25. Yousaf, Imran & Riaz, Yasir & Goodell, John W, 2023. "What do responses of financial markets to the collapse of FTX say about investor interest in cryptocurrencies? Event-study evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    26. Ali Ataullah & Xiaojing Song & Mark Tippett, 2011. "A modified Corrado test for assessing abnormal security returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 589-601.
    27. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Faruk, Balli & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Can happiness predict future volatility in stock markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    28. Chaturvedula, Chakrapani & Bang, Nupur Pavan & Rastogi, Nikhil & Kumar, Satish, 2015. "Price manipulation, front running and bulk trades: Evidence from India," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 26-45.
    29. Chortane, Sana Gaied & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Does the Russia-Ukraine war lead to currency asymmetries? A US dollar tale," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    30. Nygren, Thomas E. & Isen, Alice M. & Taylor, Pamela J. & Dulin, Jessica, 1996. "The Influence of Positive Affect on the Decision Rule in Risk Situations: Focus on Outcome (and Especially Avoidance of Loss) Rather Than Probability," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 59-72, April.
    31. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2020. "Arab geopolitics in turmoil: Implications of Qatar-Gulf crisis for business," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 100-119.
    32. Boubaker, Sabri & Farag, Hisham & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Short-term overreaction to specific events: Evidence from an emerging market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 153-165.
    33. Shehadeh, Ali A. & Li, Youwei & Vigne, Samuel A. & Almaharmeh, Mohammad I. & Wang, Yizhi, 2021. "The existence and severity of the forward premium puzzle during tranquil and turbulent periods: Developed versus developing country currencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    34. Corrado, Charles J., 1989. "A nonparametric test for abnormal security-price performance in event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 385-395, August.
    35. Kumari, Vineeta & Kumar, Gaurav & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2023. "Are the European Union stock markets vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine war?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    36. Zhang, Yongjie & Zhang, Yuzhao & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2017. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from provincial TV audience rating in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 288-294.
    37. Wiston Adrian Risso, 2009. "The informational efficiency: the emerging markets versus the developed markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 485-487.
    38. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    39. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Peng, Cheng, 2017. "Twitter's daily happiness sentiment and the predictability of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 58-64.
    40. Kumar, Rahul & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Market reactions to layoff announcements during crises: Examining impacts and conditioners," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    41. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y., 2019. "How much happiness can we find in the U.S. fear Index?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 246-258.
    42. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2012. "Oil Prices And Stock Markets In Gcc Countries: Empirical Evidence From Panel Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 242-253, July.
    43. Doğan, Buhari & Trabelsi, Nader & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ghosh, Sudeshna, 2023. "Dynamic dependence and causality between crude oil, green bonds, commodities, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 36-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta & Palma, Alessia & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Impact of ESG regulation on stock market returns: Investor responses to a reasonable assurance mandate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumari, Vineeta & Kumar, Gaurav & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2023. "Are the European Union stock markets vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine war?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    2. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta & Palma, Alessia & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Impact of ESG regulation on stock market returns: Investor responses to a reasonable assurance mandate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Assaf, Rima & Rai, Varun Kumar, 2023. "Did the Indian stock market sail the Russia-Ukraine storm safely?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    4. Kumar, Rahul & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Market reactions to layoff announcements during crises: Examining impacts and conditioners," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    5. Assaf, Rima & Gupta, Deeksha & Kumar, Rahul, 2023. "The price of war: Effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global financial market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Hassan, M Kabir & Boubaker, Sabri & Kumari, Vineeta & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Border disputes and heterogeneous sectoral returns: An event study approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    8. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Yadav, Miklesh Prasad & Rao, Amar & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Tabassum, Sabia & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "The domino effect: Analyzing the impact of Silicon Valley Bank's fall on top equity indices around the world," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    10. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adeabah, David & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2023. "Effect of Russia–Ukraine war sentiment on blockchain and FinTech stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Yousaf, Imran & Youssef, Manel & Goodell, John W., 2022. "Quantile connectedness between sentiment and financial markets: Evidence from the S&P 500 twitter sentiment index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Hassan, M.Kabir & Kumari, Vineeta & Hasan, Rashedul, 2023. "Repercussions of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse on global stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    14. Ahmed, Shamima & Assaf, Rima & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Tabassum, Fariha, 2023. "Is geopolitical risk interconnected? Evidence from Russian-Ukraine crisis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    15. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Cohen, Gil, 2020. "Everybody likes shopping, including the US capital market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    16. Lal, Madan & Kumar, Satish & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Rai, Varun Kumar & Lim, Weng Marc, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    17. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Azmi, Wajahat & Anwer, Zaheer & Azmi, Shujaat Naeem & Nobanee, Haitham, 2023. "How did major global asset classes respond to Silicon Valley Bank failure?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    19. Si Mohammed, Kamel & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Doğan, Buhari & Sharma, Gagan Deep & Mentel, Urszula, 2023. "The reaction of the metal and gold resource planning in the post-COVID-19 era and Russia-Ukrainian conflict: Role of fossil fuel markets for portfolio hedging strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Monica Martinez-Blasco & Vanessa Serrano & Francesc Prior & Jordi Cuadros, 2023. "Analysis of an event study using the Fama–French five-factor model: teaching approaches including spreadsheets and the R programming language," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:60:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323012655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.