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Stock market oscillations during the corona crash: The role of fear and uncertainty

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  • Lyócsa, Štefan
  • Molnár, Peter

Abstract

Stock market returns are difficult to predict, but crisis periods tend to be an exception to this rule. We document that, during the event period from November 2019 to May 2020 with the S&P 500 market index, the corona crash was not an exception. We use a nonlinear autoregressive model, where the autoregressive coefficient is governed by i) abnormal Google searches related to COVID-19 and ii) realized volatility. We find that the autoregressive coefficient was negative over the whole event period, but as market uncertainty and attention to virus increased, the magnitude of the autoregressive coefficient increased as well.

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  • Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter, 2020. "Stock market oscillations during the corona crash: The role of fear and uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:36:y:2020:i:c:s1544612320309818
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101707
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    Cited by:

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    2. Evangelos Vasileiou, 2021. "Explaining stock markets' performance during the COVID‐19 crisis: Could Google searches be a significant behavioral indicator?," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 173-181, July.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdowns, stimulus packages, travel bans, and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    4. Bilal & Adeel Nasir & Umar Farooq & Muhammad Farhan Bashir, 2024. "Stock returns, government response strategies, and daily new case bursts during COVID‐19: A cross‐country perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 465-485, January.
    5. Le, Trung Hai & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Covid-19 pandemic and tail-dependency networks of financial assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    6. Foglia, Matteo & Addi, Abdelhamid & Angelini, Eliana, 2022. "The Eurozone banking sector in the time of COVID-19: Measuring volatility connectedness," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
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    8. Xin Li, 2021. "Asymmetric Impact of COVID-19 on China's Stock Market Volatility - Media Effect or Fact?," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-6.
    9. Díaz, Fernando & Henríquez, Pablo A. & Winkelried, Diego, 2022. "Stock market volatility and the COVID-19 reproductive number," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
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    11. Julien Chevallier, 2020. "COVID-19 Outbreak and CO 2 Emissions: Macro-Financial Linkages," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, December.
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