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Impact of COVID-19 on financial returns: a spatial dynamic panel data model with random effects

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  • Anna Gloria Billé

    (Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna)

  • Massimiliano Caporin

    (University of Padua)

Abstract

Using a dataset including financial market returns and volatility proxies for several countries, we analyzed the impact of Covid-19 deaths on the financial economy. From the modeling perspective, we consider a spatial panel data model for returns and a spatial dynamic panel data for volatilities. Proper marginal effects are calculated to exploit information on short- and long-term effects. A Chow test is used to identify the existence of a structural break in each series. Our empirical evidence shows that in the first weeks of the Covid-19 outbreak, until mid-March 2020, the identified break date, the spatial effect of Covid-19 deaths was statistically significant, leading to a contraction in returns and an increase in risk. Moreover, the effects disappeared in the remaining months as the financial markets moved back to pre-crisis levels, causing a decrease in the overall risk. Our evidence supports the behavioral impact of the pandemic on financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Gloria Billé & Massimiliano Caporin, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on financial returns: a spatial dynamic panel data model with random effects," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jospat:v:3:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s43071-022-00025-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s43071-022-00025-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Financial crisis; Spatio-temporal modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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