IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v30y2019icp228-232.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can list prices accurately capture housing price trends? Insights from extreme markets conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Lyons, Ronan C.

Abstract

Housing matters but measuring housing prices is not straightforward. Using population-level datasets of listings and mortgage drawdowns for the Irish housing market 2006–2012, and a novel decomposition of the gap between the two, I examine whether listings accurately capture sale price trends, even in volatile market conditions. I find that, accounting for time-to-sell, an index based on listed prices is a very accurate barometer of, and lead indicator for, true transaction prices. With current and historical listings readily available online, the findings are very relevant for both academics and policymakers interested in measuring and understanding living costs and wealth trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyons, Ronan C., 2019. "Can list prices accurately capture housing price trends? Insights from extreme markets conditions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 228-232.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:30:y:2019:i:c:p:228-232
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.10.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S154461231830432X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2018.10.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John R. Knight & C. F. Sirmans & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 1994. "List price signaling and buyer behavior in the housing market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, pages 177-195.
    2. Francis E Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2012. "Developing Housing Finance Systems," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2012. "Property markets and financial stability," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 64.
    4. Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "The Irish Mortgage Market: Stylised Facts, Negative Equity and Arrears," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-108, February.
    5. Darren K. Hayunga & R. Kelley Pace, 2017. "List Prices in the US Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 155-184, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taruttis, Lisa & Weber, Christoph, 2022. "Estimating the impact of energy efficiency on housing prices in Germany: Does regional disparity matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Breidenbach, Philipp & Jäger, Philipp & Taruttis, Lisa, 2022. "Aging and real estate prices in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 953, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Trojanek, Radoslaw & Gluszak, Michal, 2022. "Short-run impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis on the housing market in Poland," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Maria-Francisca Cespedes-Lopez & Raul-Tomas Mora-Garcia, 2022. "Are Cave Houses a Sustainable Real Estate Alternative?," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Robert J. Hill & Norbert Pfeifer & Miriam Steurer & Radoslaw Trojanek, 2021. "Warning: Some Transaction Prices can be Detrimental to your House Price Index," Graz Economics Papers 2021-11, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    6. Pfeifer Norbert & Steurer Miriam, 2022. "Early Real Estate Indicators during the COVID-19 Crisis," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 38(1), pages 319-351, March.
    7. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Heblich, Stephan & Seidel, Tobias, 2023. "Micro-geographic property price and rent indices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Tom Gillespie & Ronan C. Lyons & Thomas K. J. McDermott, 2020. "Information Matters: Evidence from flood risk in the Irish housing market," Trinity Economics Papers tep1620, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Francisco Amaral & Martin Dohmen & Moritz Schularick & Jonas Zdrzalek, 2023. "German Real Estate Index (GREIX)," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 231, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    10. Richard Keely & Ronan C. Lyons, 2022. "Housing Prices, Yields and Credit Conditions in Dublin since 1945," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 404-439, April.
    11. Chen, Jie & Chen, Yu & Hill, Robert J. & Hu, Pei, 2022. "The user cost of housing and the price-rent ratio in Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Michał Hebdzyński, 2024. "Price-setting factors or revealed preferences? How to understand the results of hedonic models and hedonic indices of the housing rental market that base on listings data?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(4), pages 519-550.
    13. Ronan C. Lyons & Allison Shertzer & Rowena Gray & David N. Agorastos, 2024. "The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890-2006," NBER Working Papers 32593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Aoife K. Hurley & James Sweeney, 2024. "Irish Property Price Estimation Using A Flexible Geo-spatial Smoothing Approach: What is the Impact of an Address?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 355-393, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Heblich, Stephan & Seidel, Tobias, 2023. "Micro-geographic property price and rent indices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Shi, Song & Zhang, Hong & Zhang, Jun, 2022. "The impact of a home purchase restrictions (HPR) policy on the distressed property market in Beijing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    3. Ronan C Lyons, 2017. "Credit conditions and the housing price ratio: evidence from Ireland's bubble and crash," Trinity Economics Papers tep0717, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. Kelly, Robert & O'Toole, Conor, 2016. "Lending Conditions and Loan Default: What Can We Learn From UK Buy-to-Let Loans?," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. de Wit, Erik R. & Englund, Peter & Francke, Marc K., 2013. "Price and transaction volume in the Dutch housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 220-241.
    6. Reamonn Lyndon & Yvonne McCarthy, 2013. "What Lies Beneath? Understanding Recent Trends in Irish Mortgage Arrears," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 117-150.
    7. Jamshed Uppal, 2021. "Developing Housing Finance in Pakistan – Challenges and Opportunities," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 31-56, Jan-June.
    8. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Murcia, Andres, 2017. "The impact of macroprudential policies and their interaction with monetary policy: an empirical analysis using credit registry," CEPR Discussion Papers 12027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Muellbauer, John, 2018. "The Future of Macroeconomics," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    10. John Benjamin & Peter Chinloy & Daniel Winkler, 2007. "Sorting, Franchising and Real Estate Brokerage Firms," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 189-206, February.
    11. Konstantin A Kholodilin & Andreas Mense & Claus Michelsen, 2017. "The market value of energy efficiency in buildings and the mode of tenure," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(14), pages 3218-3238, November.
    12. Dean Gatzlaff & Peng Liu, 2013. "List Price Information in the Negotiation of Commercial Real Estate Transactions: Is Silence Golden?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 760-786, November.
    13. Ronan Lyons, 2012. "Inside a bubble and crash: Evidence from the valuation of amenities," ERES eres2012_065, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    14. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Rossana Merola, 2019. "Consumption and credit constraints: a model and evidence from Ireland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 475-503, August.
    15. Danne, Christian & McGuinness, Anne, 2016. "Mortgage modifications and loan performance," Research Technical Papers 05/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    16. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Some defaults are deeper than others: Understanding long-term mortgage arrears," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 15-27.
    17. Andreas Mense, 2018. "The Value of Energy Efficiency and the Role of Expected Heating Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(3), pages 671-701, November.
    18. Shimizu, Chihiro & Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2016. "House prices at different stages of the buying/selling process," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 37-53.
    19. John D. Benjamin & G. Donald Jud & G. Stacy Sirmans, 2000. "What Do We Know About Real Estate Brokerage?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 20(1), pages 5-30.
    20. Donald R. Haurin & Jessica L. Haurin & Taylor Nadauld & Anthony Sanders, 2010. "List Prices, Sale Prices and Marketing Time: An Application to U.S. Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 659-685, Winter.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:30:y:2019:i:c:p:228-232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.