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Short-run impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis on the housing market in Poland

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  • Trojanek, Radoslaw
  • Gluszak, Michal

Abstract

This study analysed the impact of the Russian aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 on rental and housing prices in Warsaw and Krakow, two major cities in Poland. We hypothesize that the tremendous urban population growth (by 15% in Warsaw and 23% in Krakow) in a short period generated a housing demand shock, which, combined with constrained availability, resulted in extraordinary changes in prices and rents. Quantile hedonic indices indicated a significant increase in rents since the beginning of the Russian invasion in both markets, which were affected by the refugee shock. However, similar effects were not observed in the case of housing prices. In March and April of 2022, rents increased by around 16.5% in Krakow and 14% in Warsaw, while housing prices in both cities rose by much less (by about 4.0% in Krakow and 1% in Warsaw). Using Bayesian Structural Time Series models, we demonstrated that this abnormal rent increase is not random, and we concluded that the inflow of Ukrainian refugees most likely caused it.

Suggested Citation

  • Trojanek, Radoslaw & Gluszak, Michal, 2022. "Short-run impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis on the housing market in Poland," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004366
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103236
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    5. Laura Gabrielli & Aurora Greta Ruggeri & Massimiliano Scarpa, 2023. "“Location, Location, Location”: Fluctuations in Real Estate Market Values after COVID-19 and the War in Ukraine Based on Econometric and Spatial Analysis, Random Forest, and Multivariate Regression," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-23, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing market; Demand shock; Refugees; War; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R22 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Other Demand
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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