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Directional predictability of implied volatility: From crude oil to developed and emerging stock markets

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  • Bouri, Elie
  • Lien, Donald
  • Roubaud, David
  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the implied volatility of crude oil improves the directional predictability of the implied volatility index for some major developed and emerging stock markets. Using cross-quantilograms via Han et al (2016), we find strong and persistent quantile predictability when the crude oil implied volatility is low. The effect remains significant but a bit weaker when the oil implied volatility is high. There is no improvement in directional predictability when the implied volatility of oil is at the medium level. The rolling window analysis indicates the above results are robust when the global financial crisis period is excluded.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouri, Elie & Lien, Donald & Roubaud, David & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2018. "Directional predictability of implied volatility: From crude oil to developed and emerging stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 65-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:27:y:2018:i:c:p:65-79
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.02.022
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    Cited by:

    1. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    2. Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "News-based equity market uncertainty and crude oil volatility," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    3. Zhang, Lei & Chen, Yan & Bouri, Elie, 2024. "Time-varying jump intensity and volatility forecasting of crude oil returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Billah, Mabruk & Karim, Sitara & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Vigne, Samuel A., 2022. "Return and volatility spillovers between energy and BRIC markets: Evidence from quantile connectedness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Chen, Fu-Rui & Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue, 2021. "Network connectedness between natural gas markets, uncertainty and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Baumöhl, Eduard & Bouri, Elie & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Výrost, Tomáš, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk in the global banking sector: A cross-quantilogram network approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Jeng-Bau Lin & Wei Tsai, 2019. "The Relations of Oil Price Change with Fear Gauges in Global Political and Economic Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-17, August.
    8. David Iheke Okorie & Boqiang Lin, 2022. "Crude oil market and Nigerian stocks: An asymmetric information spillover approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4002-4017, October.
    9. Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Sadorsky, Perry & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bouri, Elie & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Regime specific spillovers across US sectors and the role of oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    10. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "The linkages between oil market uncertainty and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Pham, Linh & Senthilkumar, Arunachalam & Karim, Sitara, 2022. "Oil shocks and BRIC markets: Evidence from extreme quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Gogolin, Fabian & Kearney, Fearghal & Lucey, Brian M. & Peat, Maurice & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Uncovering long term relationships between oil prices and the economy: A time-varying cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 584-593.
    13. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Bouri, Elie & Eraslan, Veysel & Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Energy and non-energy commodities: An asymmetric approach towards portfolio diversification in the commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeş & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "On the Linkage between the Energy Market and Stock Returns: Evidence from Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Tissaoui, Kais & Azibi, Jamel, 2019. "International implied volatility risk indexes and Saudi stock return-volatility predictabilities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 65-84.
    16. Anupam Dutta & Elie Bouri & David Roubaud, 2021. "Modelling the volatility of crude oil returns: Jumps and volatility forecasts," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 889-897, January.
    17. Li, Shuping & Li, Jianfeng & Lu, Xinsheng & Sun, Yihong, 2022. "Exploring the dynamic nonlinear relationship between crude oil price and implied volatility indices: A new perspective from MMV-MFDFA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    18. Yang, Yuying & Ma, Yan-Ran & Hu, Min & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Extreme risk spillover between chinese and global crude oil futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    19. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony & Khalid, Ali, 2019. "The impact of oil price uncertainty on GCC stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2024. "Could the Russia-Ukraine war stir up the persistent memory of interconnectivity among Islamic equity markets, energy commodities, and environmental factors?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    21. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    22. Jeng-Bau Lin & Chin-Chia Liang & Wei Tsai, 2019. "Nonlinear Relationships between Oil Prices and Implied Volatilities: Providing More Valuable Information," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
    23. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Tareq Saeed, 2022. "Oil price risk exposure of BRIC stock markets and hedging effectiveness," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 145-170, June.
    24. Asadi, Mehrad & Pham, Son D. & Nguyen, Thao T.T. & Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert, 2023. "The nexus between oil and airline stock returns: Does time frequency matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    25. Hung, Ngo Thai & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Directional spillover effects and time-frequency nexus between oil, gold and stock markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Directional predictability; Oil implied volatility; Stock implied volatility; VIX; Quantile dependence; Developed and emerging stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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