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Directional predictability from stock market sector indices to gold: A cross-quantilogram analysis

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  • Baumöhl, Eduard
  • Lyócsa, Štefan

Abstract

We address the safe haven properties of gold relative to US stock market sector indices using the bivariate cross-quantilogram of Han et al. (2016). Splitting our sample into pre- and post-crisis periods, our results show that the safe haven properties of gold have a changing nature. Before and after the financial crisis, we find only limited quantile dependence and that gold can be considered a safe haven for most of the sectors, except Industrials. On a full sample (1999-2016), there are only three sectors – Healthcare, IT, and Telecommunication services – for which gold can be considered a safe haven.

Suggested Citation

  • Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2017. "Directional predictability from stock market sector indices to gold: A cross-quantilogram analysis," MPRA Paper 76915, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:76915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    2. Kontonikas, Alexandros & MacDonald, Ronald & Saggu, Aman, 2013. "Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: State dependence and the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4025-4037.
    3. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    4. Florackis, Chris & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2014. "Stock market liquidity and macro-liquidity shocks: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 97-117.
    5. Linton, O. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2007. "The quantilogram: With an application to evaluating directional predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 250-282, November.
    6. Ciner, Cetin & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Lucey, Brian M., 2013. "Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 202-211.
    7. Han, Heejoon & Linton, Oliver & Oka, Tatsushi & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2016. "The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 251-270.
    8. Chung-Shin Liu & Meng-Shiuh Chang & Ximing Wu & Chin Man Chui, 2016. "Hedges or safe havens—revisit the role of gold and USD against stock: a multivariate extended skew- copula approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1763-1789, November.
    9. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    10. Andrew Patton & Dimitris Politis & Halbert White, 2009. "Correction to “Automatic Block-Length Selection for the Dependent Bootstrap” by D. Politis and H. White," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 372-375.
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    13. Huayun Jiang & Jen‐Je Su & Neda Todorova & Eduardo Roca, 2016. "Spillovers and Directional Predictability with a Cross‐Quantilogram Analysis: The Case of U.S. and Chinese Agricultural Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(12), pages 1231-1255, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market sectors; gold; safe haven; quantile dependence; cross-quantilogram;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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