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A weekly sentiment index and the cross-section of stock returns

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  • Xu, Hai-Chuan
  • Zhou, Wei-Xing

Abstract

Using the partial least squares approach, we construct an aligned sentiment index at weekly frequency. We investigate the predictive power of short-term investor sentiment on the characteristic-sorted portfolio returns. We find that sentiment changes have a positive impact on future stock returns in the Chinese A-share market. We further uncover that the predictive power of the sentiment index is the most significant for the small-size portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2018. "A weekly sentiment index and the cross-section of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 135-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:27:y:2018:i:c:p:135-139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.02.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Long, Wen & Zhao, Manyi & Tang, Yeran, 2021. "Can the Chinese volatility index reflect investor sentiment?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak & Joshua C. Hall, 2020. "Stock returns and investor sentiment: textual analysis and social media," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 458-485, July.
    4. Karam KIM & Doojin RYU, 2020. "Predictive ability of investor sentiment for the stock market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 33-46, December.
    5. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Do, Hung & Hu, Xiaolu & Zhong, Angel, 2022. "Sentiment and stock market connectedness: Evidence from the U.S. – China trade war," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Michael Cary, 2024. "Herding and investor sentiment after the cryptocurrency crash: evidence from Twitter and natural language processing," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, December.
    7. Zhao, Ruwei, 2020. "Quantifying the cross sectional relation of daily happiness sentiment and stock return: Evidence from US," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).
    8. Shi, Yong & Tang, Ye-ran & Long, Wen, 2019. "Sentiment contagion analysis of interacting investors: Evidence from China’s stock forum," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 246-259.
    9. Qadan, Mahmoud & Jacob, Maram, 2022. "The value premium and investors' appetite for risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 194-219.
    10. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y., 2019. "Can investor sentiment predict the size premium?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 10-26.
    11. Ning Wang & Shanhui Ke & Yibo Chen & Tao Yan & Andrew Lim, 2019. "Textual Sentiment of Chinese Microblog Toward the Stock Market," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(02), pages 649-671, March.
    12. Xiong Xiong & Chunchun Luo & Ye Zhang & Shen Lin, 2019. "Do stock bulletin board systems (BBS) contain useful information? A viewpoint of interaction between BBS quality and predicting ability," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1385-1411, March.
    13. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Hong-Yu, 2020. "Time-varying lead–lag structure between investor sentiment and stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Mugerman, Yevgeny & Yidov, Orr & Wiener, Zvi, 2020. "By the light of day: The effect of the switch to winter time on stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Fasanya, Ismail & Adekoya, Oluwasegun & Oyewole, Oluwatomisin & Adegboyega, Soliu, 2022. "Investor sentiment and energy futures predictability: Evidence from Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. González-Fernández, Marcos & González-Velasco, Carmen, 2020. "A sentiment index to measure sovereign risk using Google data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 406-418.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; Partial least squares; Return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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