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Country-level analyst recommendations and international stock market returns

Author

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  • Berkman, Henk
  • Yang, Wanyi

Abstract

This study defines the aggregate analyst recommendation for a country as the value-weighted average of all outstanding recommendations for shares of firms incorporated in that country. We show that country-level analyst recommendations predict international stock market returns. A trading strategy based on country-level recommendations yields an abnormal return of around 1% per month. Aggregate recommendations also help to predict changes in gross domestic product and aggregate earnings surprises. Overall, we find that country-level analyst recommendations provide useful information to predict future aggregate cash flows and associated market returns across different countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Berkman, Henk & Yang, Wanyi, 2019. "Country-level analyst recommendations and international stock market returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:103:y:2019:i:c:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.03.018
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Darko B. Vukovic & Vladislav Ugolnikov & Moinak Maiti, 2021. "Sell‐side analysts' recommendations a value or noise," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3134-3151, April.
    2. José Luis Miralles-Quirós & María Mar Miralles-Quirós, 2020. "Who Knocks on the Door of Portfolio Performance Heaven: Sinner or Saint Investors?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Adam Zaremba, 2019. "The Cross Section of Country Equity Returns: A Review of Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Tiniç, Murat & Tanyeri, Başak & Bodur, Mehmet, 2021. "Who to trust? Reactions to analyst recommendations of domestic versus foreign brokerage houses in a developing stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    6. Mustafa Kevser & Mesut DoÄŸan & AyÅŸenur TarakçioÄŸlu Altinay, 2022. "The Impact Of Buy €“ Sell Recommendations On Banks’ Stock Returns," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 8(2).
    7. Kim, Karam & Ryu, Doojin & Yang, Heejin, 2021. "Information uncertainty, investor sentiment, and analyst reports," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. José Luis Miralles-Quirós & María Mar Miralles-Quirós & José Manuel Nogueira, 2020. "Sustainable Development Goals and Investment Strategies: The Profitability of Using Five-Factor Fama-French Alphas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Jaeyong Lee & Jonathan A. Batten & Hyuna Ham & Doojin Ryu, 2024. "Does Portfolio Momentum Beat Analyst Advice?," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 60(2), pages 338-364, June.

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