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The Yield Spread and Bond Return Predictability in Expansions and Recessions

Author

Listed:
  • Martin M Andreasen
  • Tom Engsted
  • Stig V Møller
  • Magnus Sander
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abstract

This paper uncovers that expected excess bond returns display a positive correlation with the slope of the yield curve (i.e., yield spread) in expansions but a negative correlation in recessions. We use a macro-finance term structure model with different market prices of risk in expansions and recessions to show that a very accommodating monetary policy in recessions is a key driver of this switch in return predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin M Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V Møller & Magnus Sander & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "The Yield Spread and Bond Return Predictability in Expansions and Recessions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2773-2812.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:6:p:2773-2812.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaa107
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2024. "Predictive ability tests with possibly overlapping models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(1).
    2. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas & Steffensen, Sigurd A.M., 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 841-858.
    3. Guimaraes, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor & Wijnandts, Jean-Charles, 2023. "The liquidity state-dependence of monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 1045, Bank of England.
    4. Jiti Gao & Bin Peng & Yayi Yan, 2023. "Time-Varying Vector Error-Correction Models: Estimation and Inference," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Xiaosai Liao & Xinjue Li & Qingliang Fan, 2024. "Robust Bond Risk Premia Predictability Test in the Quantiles," Papers 2410.03557, arXiv.org.
    6. Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Karouzakis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Sequential learning and economic benefits from dynamic term structure models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Johnson, James A. & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Paye, Bradley S., 2022. "Jumps in stock prices: New insights from old data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Chen, Yu-Lun, 2023. "The crucial role of the five-year Treasury in the US yield curve," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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