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Market and Model Credit Default Swap Spreads: Mind the Gap!

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  • Mascia Bedendo
  • Lara Cathcart
  • Lina El†Jahel

Abstract

Structural models of default establish a relation across the fair values of various asset classes (equity, bonds, credit derivatives) referring to the same company. In most circumstances such relation is verified in practice, as different financial assets tend to move in the same direction at similar speed. However, occasional deviations from the theoretical fair values occur, especially in times of financial turmoil. Understanding how the dynamics of the theoretical fair values of various assets compares to that of their market values is crucial to a number of market participants. This paper investigates whether a popular structural model, the CreditGrades approach proposed by Finger (2002), Stamicar and Finger (2005), succeeds in explaining the dynamic relation between equity/option variables and Credit Default Swap (CDS) premia at individual company level. We find that CDS model spreads display a significant correlation with CDS market spreads. However, the gap between the two is time varying and widens substantially in times of financial turbulence. The analysis of the gap dynamics reveals that this is partly due to episodes of decoupling between equity and credit markets, and partly due to shortcomings of the model. Finally, we observe that model spreads tend to predict market spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Mascia Bedendo & Lara Cathcart & Lina El†Jahel, 2011. "Market and Model Credit Default Swap Spreads: Mind the Gap!," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 655-678, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:17:y:2011:i:4:p:655-678
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2009.00516.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2014. "Are All Credit Default Swap Databases Equal?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 677-713, September.
    2. Díaz, Antonio & Groba, Jonatan & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 529-563.
    3. Santiago Forte & Lidija Lovreta, 2015. "Time†Varying Credit Risk Discovery in the Stock and CDS Markets: Evidence from Quiet and Crisis Times," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 430-461, June.
    4. Specht, Leon, 2023. "An Empirical Analysis of European Credit Default Swap Spread Dynamics," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 8(1), pages 1-42.
    5. Guha, Rajiv & Sbuelz, Alessandro & Tarelli, Andrea, 2020. "Structural recovery of face value at default," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(3), pages 1148-1171.
    6. Ping Li & Ze†Zheng Li, 2015. "Change Analysis for the Dependence Structure and Dynamic Pricing of Basket Default Swaps," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(4), pages 646-671, September.

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