IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v17y2008i2p363-381.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock index futures arbitrage in emerging markets: Polish evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Bialkowski, Jedrzej
  • Jakubowski, Jacek

Abstract

The efficiency of the market for stock index futures and profitability of arbitrage for contracts on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index WIG20 is studied in this paper. The Polish market has unique attributes: in a relatively short time the risk-free interest rate has decreased significantly, short sale cannot be used to construct an arbitrage position by institutional investors, and the dividends are small and paid in an irregular manner. Examining intraday transaction data shows that ex post and ex ante violations for short arbitrage reveal almost all properties of a mature market. Nonetheless, findings for long arbitrage indicate inefficiency of the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Jakubowski, Jacek, 2008. "Stock index futures arbitrage in emerging markets: Polish evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 363-381.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:2:p:363-381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057-5219(06)00081-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Puttonen, Vesa, 1993. "Stock index futures arbitrage in Finland: Theory and evidence in a new market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 304-317, August.
    2. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    3. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    4. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    5. Chung, Y Peter, 1991. "A Transactions Data Test of Stock Index Futures Market Efficiency and Index Arbitrage Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1791-1809, December.
    6. Cornell, Bradford & French, Kenneth R, 1983. "Taxes and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 675-694, June.
    7. Neal, Robert, 1996. "Direct Tests of Index Arbitrage Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 541-562, December.
    8. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Arbitrage in Stock Index Futures," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 7-31, January.
    9. Figlewski, Stephen, 1984. "Hedging Performance and Basis Risk in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 657-669, July.
    10. A. Craig MacKinlay, Krishna Ramaswamy, 1988. "Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 137-158.
    11. Berglund, T. & Kabir, M.R., 2003. "What explains the difference between the futures' price and its "fair" value? Evidence from the Euronext Amsterdam," Other publications TiSEM ec81c70e-739d-4b03-be66-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Robert C. Klemkosky & Jae Ha Lee, 1991. "The intraday ex post and ex ante profitability of index arbitrage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 291-311, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Devmali Perera & Jędrzej Białkowski & Martin T. Bohl, 2022. "Is the Tracking Error Time-Varying? Evidence from Agricultural ETCs," Working Papers in Economics 22/13, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Effect of futures trading on the liquidity of underlying stocks: Evidence from Vietnam," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Nam, Seung Oh & Kim, Hyun Kyung & Kim, Byung Chun, 2010. "An alternative approach to evaluating the agreement between financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-35, February.
    4. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Perera, Devmali, 2019. "Stock index futures arbitrage: Evidence from a meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 284-294.
    5. Perera, Devmali & Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T., 2022. "Is the tracking error time-varying? Evidence from agricultural ETCs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Edyta Marcinkiewicz, 2016. "Short Sale and Index Futures Mispricing: Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(5), pages 547-559.
    7. Frino, Alex & Lecce, Steven & Lepone, Andrew, 2011. "Short-sales constraints and market quality: Evidence from the 2008 short-sales bans," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 225-236, August.
    8. Jędrzej Białkowski & Jacek Jakubowski, 2017. "Determinants of Trading Activity on the Single-Stock Futures Market: Evidence from the Eurex Exchange," Working Papers in Economics 17/16, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Perera, Devmali, 2019. "Stock index futures arbitrage: Evidence from a meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 284-294.
    2. Tse, Yiuman, 2001. "Index arbitrage with heterogeneous investors: A smooth transition error correction analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1829-1855, October.
    3. Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "Estimating Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the NSE Index Futures," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 108-131, December.
    4. Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Tim Brailsford & Allan Hodgson, 1997. "Mispricing in Stock Index Futures: A Re†Examination Using the SPI," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 22(1), pages 21-45, June.
    6. Henker, Thomas & Martens, Martin, 2005. "Index futures arbitrage before and after the introduction of sixteenths on the NYSE," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 353-373, June.
    7. Radnai, Márton, 2002. "Árazási hiba a határidős indexpiacokon [Mispricing on index futures markets]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 905-927.
    8. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2007. "Investigating the Pricing Efficiency of Indian Equity Futures Market," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 32(4), pages 486-512, November.
    9. Chang, Charles & Lin, Emily, 2015. "Cash-futures basis and the impact of market maturity, informed trading, and expiration effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 197-213.
    10. Chen, Chin-Ho, 2019. "Downside jump risk and the levels of futures-cash basis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Lin, Emily & Lee, Cheng-Few & Wang, Kehluh, 2013. "Futures mispricing, order imbalance, and short-selling constraints," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 408-423.
    12. Vipul, 2008. "Mispricing, Volume, Volatility and Open Interest," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 7(3), pages 263-292, December.
    13. Pascal Alphonse, 2007. "Mispricing Persistence and the Effectiveness of Arbitrage Trading," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 11(1-2), pages 123-156, March-Jun.
    14. Mauricio Contreras G. & Roberto Ortiz H, 2021. "Three little arbitrage theorems," Papers 2104.10187, arXiv.org.
    15. Bühler, Wolfgang & Kempf, Alexander, 1994. "DAX Index Futures: Mispricing and Arbitrage in German Markets," ZEW Discussion Papers 94-15, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Louis T. W. Cheng & Joseph K. W. Fung & Castor Pang, 1998. "Early Unwinding Strategy In Index Options-Futures Arbitrage," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 447-467, December.
    17. Lee, Jaeram & Kang, Jangkoo & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Common deviation and regime-dependent dynamics in the index derivatives markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-22.
    18. Panayiotis Andreou & Yiannos Pierides, 2008. "Empirical investigation of stock index futures market efficiency: the case of the Athens Derivatives Exchange," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 211-223.
    19. Tu, Anthony H. & Hsieh, Wen-Liang G. & Wu, Wei-Shao, 2016. "Market uncertainty, expected volatility and the mispricing of S&P 500 index futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-98.
    20. Nicholas Taylor, 2007. "A New Econometric Model of Index Arbitrage," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(1), pages 159-183, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:2:p:363-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.