IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ausman/v22y1997i1p21-45.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mispricing in Stock Index Futures: A Re†Examination Using the SPI

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Brailsford

    (Department of Commerce, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200; E†mail: Tim. Brailsford@anu.edu.au)

  • Allan Hodgson

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, Griffith University, Brisbane QLD 4111.)

Abstract

This paper re†examines and extends stock index futures pricing in Australia. The paper has two objectives. First, the paper provides a comprehensive examination of stock index futures pricing which is, as far as possible, free from method bias which has been problematic in previous studies. Second, the paper analyses the behaviour of the mispricing series in relation to a number of explanatory variables. The results indicate that a frequent but small mispricing series is prevalent and highly predictable. The series is related to time†to†expiry, which is consistent with the arbitrage position having an option component, and has a positive association with both volatility from the overnight US market and contemporaneous futures market volatility. Some institutional and time features are sample specific, whilst surprises in futures trading volume also have an impact on absolute mispricing. We conclude that the relationship between the markets is dynamic and likely to be driven by more complex nonlinear relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Brailsford & Allan Hodgson, 1997. "Mispricing in Stock Index Futures: A Re†Examination Using the SPI," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 22(1), pages 21-45, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:22:y:1997:i:1:p:21-45
    DOI: 10.1177/031289629702200102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/031289629702200102
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/031289629702200102?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Greenwald, Bruce C & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Transactional Risk, Market Crashes, and the Role of Circuit Breakers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 443-462, October.
    2. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Ramaswamy, Krishna & Sundaresan, Suresh M, 1985. "The Valuation of Options on Futures Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1319-1340, December.
    4. Yadav, Pradeep K. & Pope, Peter F., 1992. "Intraweek and intraday seasonalities in stock market risk premia: Cash and futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 233-270, February.
    5. Nusret Cakici & Sris Chatterjee, 1991. "Pricing stock index futures with stochastic interest rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 441-452, August.
    6. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Arbitrage in Stock Index Futures," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 7-31, January.
    7. Powers, Mark J, 1970. "Does Futures Trading Reduce Price Fluctuations in the Cash Markets?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 460-464, June.
    8. Chung, Y Peter, 1991. "A Transactions Data Test of Stock Index Futures Market Efficiency and Index Arbitrage Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1791-1809, December.
    9. Cornell, Bradford & French, Kenneth R, 1983. "Taxes and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 675-694, June.
    10. A. Craig MacKinlay, Krishna Ramaswamy, 1988. "Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 137-158.
    11. Brown, Stephen J & Dybvig, Philip H, 1986. "The Empirical Implications of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 617-630, July.
    12. Kian‐Guan Lim, 1992. "Arbitrage and price behavior of the Nikkei stock index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-161, April.
    13. Robert C. Klemkosky & Jae Ha Lee, 1991. "The intraday ex post and ex ante profitability of index arbitrage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 291-311, June.
    14. Miller, Merton H & Muthuswamy, Jayaram & Whaley, Robert E, 1994. "Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage-Induced or Statistical Illusion?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 479-513, June.
    15. Swati Bhatt & Nusret Cakici, 1990. "Premiums on stock index futures‐some evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 367-375, August.
    16. Stephen E. Satchell & Richard C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1997. "The Pricing of Marked-to-Market Contingent Claims in a No-Arbitrage Economy," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-37, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    17. Ravi Vaidyanathan & Tim Krehbiel, 1992. "Does the S&P 500 futures mispricing series exhibit nonlinear dependence across time?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 659-677, December.
    18. Pradeep K. Yadav & Peter F. Pope, 1991. "Testing index futures market efficiency using price differences: A critical analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 239-252, April.
    19. Cox, Charles C, 1976. "Futures Trading and Market Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1215-1237, December.
    20. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr & Locke, Peter R & Yu, Wei, 1996. "Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 301-332.
    21. John J. Merrick Jr., 1987. "Volume determination in stock and stock index futures markets: An analysis of arbitrage and volatility effects," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(5), pages 483-496, October.
    22. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. "Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-2034, December.
    23. Brenner, Menachem & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Uno, Jun, 1989. "The behavior of prices in the Nikkei spot and futures market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 363-383, August.
    24. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    25. Warren Bailey, 1989. "The market for japanese stock index futures: Some preliminary evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 283-295, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frino, Alex & Mollica, Vito & Webb, Robert I. & Zhang, Shunquan, 2017. "The impact of latency sensitive trading on high frequency arbitrage opportunities," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 91-102.
    2. Tu, Anthony H. & Hsieh, Wen-Liang G. & Wu, Wei-Shao, 2016. "Market uncertainty, expected volatility and the mispricing of S&P 500 index futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-98.
    3. James Richard Cummings & Alex Frino, 2008. "Tax Effects on the Pricing of Australian Stock Index Futures," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(2), pages 391-406, December.
    4. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Perera, Devmali, 2019. "Stock index futures arbitrage: Evidence from a meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 284-294.
    5. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2007. "Investigating the Pricing Efficiency of Indian Equity Futures Market," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 32(4), pages 486-512, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Perera, Devmali, 2019. "Stock index futures arbitrage: Evidence from a meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 284-294.
    2. Chris Bilson & Tim Brailsford & Twm Evans, 2005. "The International Transmission of Arbitrage Information Across Futures Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5‐6), pages 973-1000, June.
    3. Bühler, Wolfgang & Kempf, Alexander, 1994. "DAX Index Futures: Mispricing and Arbitrage in German Markets," ZEW Discussion Papers 94-15, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Tse, Yiuman, 2001. "Index arbitrage with heterogeneous investors: A smooth transition error correction analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1829-1855, October.
    5. Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. Lin, Emily & Lee, Cheng-Few & Wang, Kehluh, 2013. "Futures mispricing, order imbalance, and short-selling constraints," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 408-423.
    7. Henker, Thomas & Martens, Martin, 2005. "Index futures arbitrage before and after the introduction of sixteenths on the NYSE," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 353-373, June.
    8. Chang, Charles & Lin, Emily, 2015. "Cash-futures basis and the impact of market maturity, informed trading, and expiration effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 197-213.
    9. Pascal Alphonse, 2007. "Mispricing Persistence and the Effectiveness of Arbitrage Trading," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 11(1-2), pages 123-156, March-Jun.
    10. Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "Estimating Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the NSE Index Futures," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 108-131, December.
    11. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Jakubowski, Jacek, 2008. "Stock index futures arbitrage in emerging markets: Polish evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 363-381.
    12. Heinz Zimmermann & Claudia Zogg-Wetter, 1997. "Preisbildung am schweizerischen SMI-Futuresmarkt: Arbitrage und dynamische Preisbeziehungen," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(II), pages 95-132, June.
    13. Janchung Wang, 2009. "Stock market volatility and the forecasting performance of stock index futures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 277-292.
    14. Lee, Jaeram & Kang, Jangkoo & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Common deviation and regime-dependent dynamics in the index derivatives markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-22.
    15. Lafuente, Juan A. & Novales, Alfonso, 2003. "Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: Evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1053-1078, June.
    16. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    17. Kristoffer Glover & Hardy Hulley, 2022. "Financially constrained index futures arbitrage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1688-1703, September.
    18. Kim, Bong-Han & Chun, Sun-Eae & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2010. "Nonlinear dynamics in arbitrage of the S&P 500 index and futures: A threshold error-correction model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 566-573, March.
    19. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    20. Jieye Qin & Christopher J. Green & Kavita Sirichand, 2019. "Determinants of Nikkei futures mispricing in international markets: Dividend clustering, currency risk, and transaction costs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1269-1300, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:22:y:1997:i:1:p:21-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.agsm.edu.au .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.