Modelling tools to evaluate China's future energy system – A review of the Chinese perspective

Research efforts to analyse China's future energy system increased tremendously over the past decade. One prominent research area is China's first binding CO2 emission intensity target per unit of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and its impact on the country's economy and energy system. This paper compares 18 energy modelling tools from ten Chinese institutions. These models have been described in English language publications between 2005 and 2013, although not all are published in peer-reviewed journals. When comparing the results for three main energy system indicators across models, this paper finds that there are considerable ranges in the reference scenarios: (i) GDP is projected to grow by 630–840% from 2010 to 2050, (ii) energy demand could increase by 200–300% from 2010 to 2050, and (iii) CO2 emissions could rise by 160–250% from 2010 to 2050. Although the access to the modelling tools and the underlying data remains challenging, this study concludes that the Chinese perspective, independently from the modelling approach and institution, suggests a rather gradual and long-term transition towards a low carbon economy in China. Few reference scenarios include an emission peak or stabilisation period before 2040. While policy scenarios frequently suggest efficiency improvements, a short-term and large-scale introduction of non-fossil power technologies is rarely recommended.