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Exploring the uncertainty around potential shale gas development – A global energy system analysis based on TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model)

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  • Gracceva, Francesco
  • Zeniewski, Peter

Abstract

This paper aims to quantitatively explore the uncertainty around the global potential of shale gas development and its possible impacts, using a multi-regional energy system model, TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model). Starting from the premise that shale gas resource size and production cost are two key preconditions for its development, our scenario analysis reveals the way these and other variables interact with the global energy system, impacting on the regional distribution of gas production, interregional gas trade, demand and prices. The analysis shows how the reciprocal effects of substitutions on both the supply and demand-side play an important role in constraining or enabling the penetration of shale gas into the energy mix. Moreover, we systematically demonstrate that the global potential for shale gas development is contingent on a large number of intervening variables that manifest themselves in different ways across regionally-distinct energy systems. A simple theoretical model is derived from the results of the scenario analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gracceva, Francesco & Zeniewski, Peter, 2013. "Exploring the uncertainty around potential shale gas development – A global energy system analysis based on TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 443-457.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:443-457
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.06.006
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    15. Sheridan Few & Ajay Gambhir & Tamaryn Napp & Adam Hawkes & Stephane Mangeon & Dan Bernie & Jason Lowe, 2017. "The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, January.
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