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A dynamic forward-citation full path model for technology monitoring: An empirical study from shale gas industry

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  • Wei, Yi-Ming
  • Kang, Jia-Ning
  • Yu, Bi-Ying
  • Liao, Hua
  • Du, Yun-Fei

Abstract

The utilization of shale gas has become one of the important options to transit into low-carbon economy in the world and its vigorous development relies on successful technology revolution to a great extent. Based on patent data, this paper analyzes the development trends and the status quo of technical innovation of shale gas quantitatively by means of patent maps. A new dynamic model named Forward-Citation Full Path (FCFP) is investigated to identify the key development paths in technology clusters and monitor potential breakthrough technologies on those key paths. Then we employ topic modeling and text mining for patent abstracts to explore the potential promising topics with high innovation activeness in aid of providing specific references for development and foresight of the shale gas technology. The results show that: (1) The patent center of shale gas has been transferring from North American to the Asia-Pacific region and the technological innovation is mainly driven by preferential tax policy and loose environmental regimes. (2) Current hotspots of shale gas technology are production technique including stimulation treatments, environmental protection technology of fracturing fluid and geological prospecting technology. (3) There are five potential topics with high innovation activeness identified by topic modeling and text mining which are synthetic carbon oxide, hydraulic fracturing, fracturing propping agents, horizontal well, and technologies of reservoir exploration and modeling. (4) By means of visualization of technology clusters, it is found that promising technologies are refined simulation technology for shale gas exploration, multi-interval fracturing techniques in horizontal wells with deep pay zones, water treatment and environmental protection technology in shale gas production. (5) The suggested dynamic FCFP model can effectively identify the key development paths and monitor potential breakthrough technology of shale gas.

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  • Wei, Yi-Ming & Kang, Jia-Ning & Yu, Bi-Ying & Liao, Hua & Du, Yun-Fei, 2017. "A dynamic forward-citation full path model for technology monitoring: An empirical study from shale gas industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 769-780.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:205:y:2017:i:c:p:769-780
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.121
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    Cited by:

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    3. Kang, Jia-Ning & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liu, Lan-cui & Wang, Jin-Wei, 2021. "Observing technology reserves of carbon capture and storage via patent data: Paving the way for carbon neutral," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    4. Niu, Wente & Lu, Jialiang & Sun, Yuping & Zhang, Xiaowei & Li, Qiaojing & Cao, Xu & Liang, Pingping & Zhan, Hongming, 2024. "Techno-economic integration evaluation in shale gas development based on ensemble learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    5. Jong-Hyun Kim & Yong-Gil Lee, 2020. "Progress of Technological Innovation of the United States’ Shale Petroleum Industry Based on Patent Data Association Rules," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-17, August.
    6. de Wildt, Tristan E. & Chappin, Emile J.L. & van de Kaa, Geerten & Herder, Paulien M., 2018. "A comprehensive approach to reviewing latent topics addressed by literature across multiple disciplines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2111-2128.
    7. WANG, La-yin & ZHAO, Dong, 2021. "Cross-domain function analysis and trend study in Chinese construction industry based on patent semantic analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    8. Kang, Jia-Ning & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liu, Lan-Cui & Han, Rong & Yu, Bi-Ying & Wang, Jin-Wei, 2020. "Energy systems for climate change mitigation: A systematic review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    9. Yi-Ming Wei & Jin-Wei Wang & Tianqi Chen & Bi-Ying Yu & Hua Liao, 2018. "Frontiers of Low-Carbon Technologies: Results from Bibliographic Coupling with Sliding Window," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 116, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    10. Jong-Hyun Kim & Yong-Gil Lee, 2018. "Learning Curve, Change in Industrial Environment, and Dynamics of Production Activities in Unconventional Energy Resources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-11, September.
    11. Kang, Jia-Ning & Zhang, Yun-Long & Chen, Weiming, 2022. "Delivering negative emissions innovation on the right track: A patent analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology foresight; Patent map; Technology monitoring; Path identification; Shale gas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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