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Modelling the natural gas dynamics in the Southern Cone of Latin America

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Listed:
  • Chávez-Rodríguez, Mauro F.
  • Dias, Luís
  • Simoes, Sofia
  • Seixas, Júlia
  • Hawkes, Adam
  • Szklo, Alexandre
  • Lucena, Andre F.P.

Abstract

Natural gas plays an important role in the Southern cone energy system, and is expected to increase in primary supply in the future. This paper presents a new energy systems model for the Southern Cone region of Latin America, covering five regions (Argentina, Bolivia, South and Centre Chile, North Chile, and Brazil) with the aim to explore, up to 2030, the interplay between (i) the expected consumption of natural gas for electricity generation and end-use consumption (i.e. residential, commercial, transport and industry) in each country, (ii) the inter- and intra-country potential role as producer and consumer of natural gas, and (iii) the possible supply network of LNG and natural gas via pipeline and domestic production. It is found that, under a Constrained Investment Scenario, the gross domestic gas production of the Southern Cone from 2012 to 2030 could be 62Tcf, whereas under an Unconstrained Scenario, it could rise to 75Tcf. This highlights the economic potential of the unconventional gas resources of Argentina and projections of associated gas from the Campos and Santos basins in Brazil. However, accessing these resources poses financial challenges. Nonetheless, results clearly indicate significant potential for an increase in regional natural gas trade in the Southern Cone.

Suggested Citation

  • Chávez-Rodríguez, Mauro F. & Dias, Luís & Simoes, Sofia & Seixas, Júlia & Hawkes, Adam & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucena, Andre F.P., 2017. "Modelling the natural gas dynamics in the Southern Cone of Latin America," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 219-239.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:201:y:2017:i:c:p:219-239
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.061
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    3. Hammerschmitt, Bruno Knevitz & Guarda, Fernando Guilherme Kaehler & Lucchese, Felipe Cirolini & Abaide, Alzenira da Rosa, 2022. "Complementary thermal energy generation associated with renewable energies using Artificial Intelligence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    4. Barbosa, Juliana & Dias, Luís P. & Simoes, Sofia G. & Seixas, Júlia, 2020. "When is the sun going to shine for the Brazilian energy sector? A story of how modelling affects solar electricity," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1684-1702.
    5. Crow, Daniel J.G. & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2018. "A dynamic model of global natural gas supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 452-469.
    6. Michail Tsangas & Mejdi Jeguirim & Lionel Limousy & Antonis Zorpas, 2019. "The Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in Combination with PESTEL-SWOT Analysis to Assess the Hydrocarbons Sector in Cyprus," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, February.
    7. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
    8. Henrique Vilela Pinto dos Anjos & Alexandre Szklo & Mauro Francisco Chávez Rodríguez, 2024. "Gas market integration in South America: The role of Argentine gas to reduce the regional exposure to liquefied natural gas imports," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(7), pages 3530-3553, November.

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