A novel data-driven state evaluation approach for photovoltaic arrays in uncertain shading scenarios

Accurately determining the operating state of photovoltaic (PV) power-generation equipment and providing accurate support for maintenance management requires evaluation of the states of PV arrays under partial shading conditions. Results of such evaluation enable the optimization of maintenance measures to reduce maintenance costs and extend the lifespan of PV modules, thereby increasing the overall revenue of the PV power station. Therefore, this study proposes a novel state-evaluation approach based on current-voltage (I-V) curves under partial shading conditions. Based on the size of the pixel values in this curve, the proposed novel state-evaluation was performed using the proportion of the values of the normal and shaded curves under the same environmental conditions. Specifically, the feature variables (open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current) and pixel values within the I-V curve were analyzed and calculated using a sensitivity algorithm and computer vision algorithms (Canny edge-detection algorithm and Green's theorem). Based on the mapping relationship between feature variables and pixels, an improved Gaussian-process regression method with a combined kernel function (dot product and Matérn function) was proposed to predict the pixel values under the corresponding normal curve. This combined kernel function effectively captured causal relationships and handled outliers in the test dataset to improve the robustness of the model. Finally, the ratios of the pixel values were calculated using the predicted pixels within the normal curve and the calculated pixels within the shading curve. Experiments demonstrated that the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), R squared (R2) and log likelihood of the improved Gaussian-process regression method reached 0.011, 0.0086, 0.9996, and 24.7096, respectively.