IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v308y2024ics0360544224023934.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Diffusion of electric vehicles and their flexibility potential for smoothing residual demand — A spatio-temporal analysis for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Arnold, Fabian
  • Lilienkamp, Arne
  • Namockel, Nils

Abstract

The transformation of the energy system is causing stress on distribution grid components. However, flexible charging of electric vehicles has been shown to have the potential to mitigate this impact by reducing load and feed-in peaks. To understand the potential of charging flexibility on regional and national levels, regional residual demand time series for Germany are estimated for the years 2019, 2030 and 2045. The diffusion of electric vehicles is modeled via sigmoid functions and driving and charging profiles are derived based on micro mobility data. Furthermore, two flexibility schemes for electric vehicles are distinguished: (1) all vehicles contribute to flattening the national residual load curve; (2) vehicles contribute to flattening regional residual load curves. The analysis shows that although the absolute flexibility potential increases with the number of vehicles, its marginal utility to reduce load peaks declines. In load-dominated regions, the national deployment of flexibility can result in higher regional demand peaks compared to a scenario without charging flexibility. The two approaches of flexibility activation can be contradictory in their effects: While regional incentivization is less efficient in reaching the smoothing in the national residual demand curve, national incentivization can even lead to increased strain on the local level.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold, Fabian & Lilienkamp, Arne & Namockel, Nils, 2024. "Diffusion of electric vehicles and their flexibility potential for smoothing residual demand — A spatio-temporal analysis for Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:308:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224023934
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.132619
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224023934
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.132619?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Siobhan Powell & Gustavo Vianna Cezar & Liang Min & Inês M. L. Azevedo & Ram Rajagopal, 2022. "Charging infrastructure access and operation to reduce the grid impacts of deep electric vehicle adoption," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 932-945, October.
    2. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    3. Kockel, Christina & Nolting, Lars & Priesmann, Jan & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2022. "Does renewable electricity supply match with energy demand? – A spatio-temporal analysis for the German case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    4. Gunkel, Philipp Andreas & Bergaentzlé, Claire & Græsted Jensen, Ida & Scheller, Fabian, 2020. "From passive to active: Flexibility from electric vehicles in the context of transmission system development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    5. Schill, Wolf-Peter & Gerbaulet, Clemens, 2015. "Power System Impacts of Electric Vehicles in Germany: Charging with Coal or Renewables," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 156, pages 185-196.
    6. Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Guha, Pritha & Chakraborty, Abhishek, 2022. "Comparative assessment and selection of electric vehicle diffusion models: A global outlook," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    7. Rebenaque, Olivier & Schmitt, Carlo & Schumann, Klemens & Dronne, Théo & Roques, Fabien, 2023. "Success of local flexibility market implementation: A review of current projects," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Philipp Andreas Gunkel & Claire Bergaentzl'e & Ida Gr{ae}sted Jensen & Fabian Scheller, 2020. "From passive to active: Flexibility from electric vehicles in the context of transmission system development," Papers 2011.05830, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Strobel, Leo & Schlund, Jonas & Pruckner, Marco, 2022. "Joint analysis of regional and national power system impacts of electric vehicles—A case study for Germany on the county level in 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    2. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Nagel, Niels Oliver & Jåstad, Eirik Ogner & Martinsen, Thomas, 2024. "The grid benefits of vehicle-to-grid in Norway and Denmark: An analysis of home- and public parking potentials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    4. Indre Siksnelyte-Butkiene & Dalia Streimikiene, 2022. "Sustainable Development of Road Transport in the EU: Multi-Criteria Analysis of Countries’ Achievements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-25, November.
    5. Jåstad, Eirik Ogner & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2023. "Modelling emission and land-use impacts of altered bioenergy use in the future energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    6. Bergaentzle, Claire & Gunkel, Philipp Andreas, 2022. "Cross-sector flexibility, storage investment and the integration of renewables: Capturing the impacts of grid tariffs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    7. Yin, Linfei & Qiu, Yao, 2022. "Long-term price guidance mechanism of flexible energy service providers based on stochastic differential methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    8. Jerez Monsalves, Juan & Bergaentzlé, Claire & Keles, Dogan, 2023. "Impacts of flexible-cooling and waste-heat recovery from data centres on energy systems: A Danish case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    9. Gunkel, Philipp Andreas & Kachirayil, Febin & Bergaentzlé, Claire-Marie & McKenna, Russell & Keles, Dogan & Jacobsen, Henrik Klinge, 2023. "Uniform taxation of electricity: incentives for flexibility and cost redistribution among household categories," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    10. Jåstad, Eirik Ogner & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2023. "Offshore wind power market values in the North Sea – A probabilistic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    11. Daryabari, Mohamad K. & Keypour, Reza & Golmohamadi, Hessam, 2020. "Stochastic energy management of responsive plug-in electric vehicles characterizing parking lot aggregators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    12. Heffron, Raphael J. & Körner, Marc-Fabian & Schöpf, Michael & Wagner, Jonathan & Weibelzahl, Martin, 2021. "The role of flexibility in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond: Contributing to a sustainable and resilient energy future in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    13. McGarry, Connor & Dixon, James & Flower, Jack & Bukhsh, Waqquas & Brand, Christian & Bell, Keith & Galloway, Stuart, 2024. "Electrified heat and transport: Energy demand futures, their impacts on power networks and what it means for system flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    14. Alexandra Märtz & Uwe Langenmayr & Sabrina Ried & Katrin Seddig & Patrick Jochem, 2022. "Charging Behavior of Electric Vehicles: Temporal Clustering Based on Real-World Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-26, September.
    15. Valkering, Pieter & Moglianesi, Andrea & Godon, Louis & Duerinck, Jan & Huber, Dominik & Costa, Daniele, 2023. "Representing decentralized generation and local energy use flexibility in an energy system optimization model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    16. Roldán-Blay, Carlos & Escrivá-Escrivá, Guillermo & Roldán-Porta, Carlos & Dasí-Crespo, Daniel, 2023. "Optimal sizing and design of renewable power plants in rural microgrids using multi-objective particle swarm optimization and branch and bound methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    17. Hassam ur Rehman & Jan Diriken & Ala Hasan & Stijn Verbeke & Francesco Reda, 2021. "Energy and Emission Implications of Electric Vehicles Integration with Nearly and Net Zero Energy Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-30, October.
    18. Sevdari, Kristian & Calearo, Lisa & Andersen, Peter Bach & Marinelli, Mattia, 2022. "Ancillary services and electric vehicles: An overview from charging clusters and chargers technology perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    19. Ding, Xiaofeng & Lu, Peng & Shan, Zhenyu, 2021. "A high-accuracy switching loss model of SiC MOSFETs in a motor drive for electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    20. D’Ettorre, F. & Banaei, M. & Ebrahimy, R. & Pourmousavi, S. Ali & Blomgren, E.M.V. & Kowalski, J. & Bohdanowicz, Z. & Łopaciuk-Gonczaryk, B. & Biele, C. & Madsen, H., 2022. "Exploiting demand-side flexibility: State-of-the-art, open issues and social perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flexibility; Electric vehicles; Residual load; Energy transition; Charging profiles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:308:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224023934. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.