IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v300y2024ics0360544224012416.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A stochastic catastrophe model of construction site safety hazards supervision and its resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Wenqiang
  • Liang, Yunze
  • Lei, Ming
  • Cai, Dongliang
  • Wu, Xinwei

Abstract

Construction site safety hazards supervision (CSSHS) is directly related to the life safety of construction personnel and the social reputation of enterprises. This paper discusses the nonlinear evolution processes and resilience measure of CSSHS. First, evolutionary game theory is applied to establish replicator dynamic equations for construction enterprises and government departments. On this basis, white Gaussian noise and Itoˆ stochastic differential equations are introduced to construct its stochastic dynamical system. Second, we use limit probability density functions to transform the game model into stochastic catastrophe model and introduce resilience indicator to quantitatively characterize the system’s capacity to absorb disturbances. Finally, through simulation experiments, we further analyze the impact of relevant parameter variations on the system’s nonlinear evolution and resilience. The results show that: (1) the self-organized phase transition generated by the combination of variables in the bifurcation point set induces a structural catastrophe in the selection of a strategy by regulatory entities; (2) the change in resilience of CSSHS system corresponds to the occurrence of a structural catastrophe in the system state; (3) beyond certain thresholds, supervision frequency and pecuniary penalty have positive effects on the resilience of CSSHS system; (4) the probability of potential safety incidents negatively influences the resilience of CSSHS system, fostering a “gambling” mentality among regulatory entities, particularly when lower probabilities of incident occurrences are predicted.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Wenqiang & Liang, Yunze & Lei, Ming & Cai, Dongliang & Wu, Xinwei, 2024. "A stochastic catastrophe model of construction site safety hazards supervision and its resilience," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:300:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224012416
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131468
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224012416
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131468?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ning, Jiajun & Xiong, Lixin, 2024. "Analysis of the dynamic evolution process of the digital transformation of renewable energy enterprises based on the cooperative and evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    2. Liu, Xiaoqian & Wang, Chang'an & Wu, Haitao & Yang, Cunyi & Albitar, Khaldoon, 2023. "The impact of the new energy demonstration city construction on energy consumption intensity: Exploring the sustainable potential of China's firms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Hu, Qi & Jin, Tao & Jiang, Yulian & Liu, Xingwen, 2024. "Reputation incentives with public supervision promote cooperation in evolutionary games," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 466(C).
    4. Mohamed M. Mostafa, 2020. "Catastrophe Theory Predicts International Concern for Global Warming," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 709-731, September.
    5. Yang, Weixin & Yang, Yunpeng & Chen, Hongmin, 2022. "How to stimulate Chinese energy companies to comply with emission regulations? Evidence from four-party evolutionary game analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    6. Oliva, Gabriele & Faramondi, Luca & Setola, Roberto & Tesei, Marco & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "A multi-criteria model for the security assessment of large-infrastructure construction sites," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    7. Weixin Yang & Xiu Zheng & Yunpeng Yang, 2024. "Impact of Environmental Regulation on Export Technological Complexity of High-Tech Industries in Chinese Manufacturing," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-29, February.
    8. Liu, Dehai & Xiao, Xingzhi & Li, Hongyi & Wang, Weiguo, 2015. "Historical evolution and benefit–cost explanation of periodical fluctuation in coal mine safety supervision: An evolutionary game analysis framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 974-984.
    9. Liu, Bin & Gao, Qun & Liang, Lingfeng & Sun, Jide & Liu, Chunlu & Xu, Youquan, 2021. "Ecological relationships of global construction industries in sustainable economic and energy development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    10. Yigang Wei & Xin Liang & Liang Xu & Gang Kou & Julien Chevallier, 2023. "Trading, storage, or penalty? Uncovering firms' decision-making behavior in the Shanghai emissions trading scheme: Insights from agent-based modeling," Post-Print halshs-04250312, HAL.
    11. Li, Cui & Li, Hong & Tao, Changqi, 2023. "Evolutionary game of platform enterprises, government and consumers in the context of digital economy," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    12. Hou, Yali & Wang, Qunwei & Tan, Tao, 2023. "An ensemble learning framework for rooftop photovoltaic project site selection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    13. Wang, Lianghu & Shao, Jun, 2024. "The energy saving effects of digital infrastructure construction: Empirical evidence from Chinese industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    14. Yang, Weixin & Pan, Lingying & Ding, Qinyi, 2023. "Dynamic analysis of natural gas substitution for crude oil: Scenario simulation and quantitative evaluation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    15. Chen, Zihan, 2023. "Enhancing the engineering supervision process in China: A solution enabled by integrating hybrid blockchain system," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    16. Wei, Yigang & Liang, Xin & Xu, Liang & Kou, Gang & Chevallier, Julien, 2023. "Trading, storage, or penalty? Uncovering firms' decision-making behavior in the Shanghai emissions trading scheme: Insights from agent-based modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao, Dan & Wang, Jian & Li, Ye-kai & Tang, Jin-huan & Zhang, Shui-wang, 2024. "How to promote the transition of fuel vehicle enterprises under dual credit policy? An improved tripartite evolutionary game analysis with time delay," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    2. Xia, Xiaoning & Li, Pengwei & Cheng, Yang, 2023. "Tripartite evolutionary game analysis of power battery carbon footprint disclosure under the EU battery regulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    3. Liu, Xinglei & Liu, Jun & Liu, Jiacheng & Yang, Yin, 2024. "Multi-period optimal capacity expansion planning scheme of regional integrated energy systems considering multi-time scale uncertainty and generation low-carbon retrofit," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. Jia, Shanghui & Chen, Xinhui & Jin, Jiayu, 2024. "Digital disruption and energy efficiency: The impact of regional digitalization on China's industrial sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    5. Zhu, Rongqi & Wei, Yigang & Tan, Longyan, 2024. "Low-carbon technology adoption and diffusion with heterogeneity in the emissions trading scheme," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    6. Shobande, Olatunji A. & Ogbeifun, Lawrence & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2024. "Extricating the impacts of emissions trading system and energy transition on carbon intensity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    7. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Yizhi, 2024. "Identifying price bubbles in global carbon markets: Evidence from the SADF test, GSADF test and LPPLS method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Sun, Yong & Liu, Baoyin & Sun, Zhongrui & Yang, Ruijia, 2023. "Inter-regional cooperation in the transfers of energy-intensive industry: An evolutionary game approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    9. Jin, Tao & Jiang, Yulian & Liu, Xingwen, 2023. "Evolutionary game analysis of the impact of dynamic dual credit policy on new energy vehicles after subsidy cancellation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    10. Yongkang Yang & Qiaoyi Du & Chenlong Wang & Yu Bai, 2020. "Research on the Method of Methane Emission Prediction Using Improved Grey Radial Basis Function Neural Network Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-15, November.
    11. Chen, Liming & Zhao, Yuanyuan & Xie, Rui & Su, Bin & Liu, Yue & Renfei, Xv, 2023. "Embodied energy intensity of global high energy consumption industries: A case study of the construction industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    12. Fan, Ruguo & Dong, Lili, 2018. "The dynamic analysis and simulation of government subsidy strategies in low-carbon diffusion considering the behavior of heterogeneous agents," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 252-262.
    13. Wenke Wang & Xiaoqiong You & Kebei Liu & Yenchun Jim Wu & Daming You, 2020. "Implementation of a Multi-Agent Carbon Emission Reduction Strategy under the Chinese Dual Governance System: An Evolutionary Game Theoretical Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-21, November.
    14. Yi Song & Dan Chang & Lizhu Cui, 2022. "The Evolutionary Game of Cooperative Air Pollution Management under Complex Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Wei He & Rujie Liu & Tao Han & Jicheng Zhang & Yixun Lei & Shan Xu & Hongwei Yu & Zhu Li, 2024. "Cooperative Construction of Renewable Energy and Energy Storage System: Research on Evolutionary Game Model Based on Continuous Strategy and Random Disturbance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-24, November.
    16. Zhang, S.Q. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Ding, Y.K. & Yang, X., 2023. "Developing a copula-based input-output method for analyzing energy-water nexus of Tajikistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    17. Liu, Lu & Zhao, Qiuhong & Bi, Yanlin, 2020. "Why rent-seeking behavior may exist in Chinese mining safety production inspection system and how to alleviate it: A tripartite game analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Wenxin Su & Xin Gao & Yukun Jiang & Jinrong Li, 2021. "Developing a Construction Safety Standard System to Enhance Safety Supervision Efficiency in China: A Theoretical Simulation of the Evolutionary Game Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-22, December.
    19. Chong Zhang & Zhiying Feng, 2024. "Carbon emissions trading price forecasts by multi-perspective fusion," Economic Analysis Letters, Anser Press, vol. 3(2), pages 13-25, June.
    20. Chen, Sen-Sen & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Evaluating the effect of coal mine safety supervision system policy in China's coal mining industry: A two-phase analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 12-21.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:300:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224012416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.