IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v298y2024ics0360544224011897.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy, economic, and environmental impacts of electricity market-oriented reform and the carbon emissions trading: A recursive dynamic CGE model in China

Author

Listed:
  • Xin-gang, Zhao
  • Shuran, Hu
  • Hui, Wang
  • Haowei, Chen
  • Wenbin, Zhang
  • Wenjie, Lu

Abstract

Electricity market-oriented reform and carbon emissions trading, as the main policies implemented in China's power sector, have a profound impact on China's green and low-carbon transition by promoting resource allocation efficiency and internalizing external environmental costs, respectively. Therefore, this paper constructed a dynamic recursive CGE model to measure the energy, economic, and environmental impacts of carbon emissions trading and electricity market-oriented reform from electricity market structure and pricing mechanism. The results show that the two policies have a synergistic effect on industrial structure optimization, energy consumption structure optimization, and carbon emission reduction. Specifically, the share of value-added of the tertiary sector, the growth rate of coal consumption, the share of thermal power consumption, and carbon emissions in 2030 are reduced by 5.70 %, 18.29 %, 2.55 %, and 2.838 trillion tons, respectively, compared with the scenario without carbon emissions trading and electricity market-oriented reform. However, imperfectly competitive market structures outperform perfectly competitive market structures in energy consumption structure and carbon emission reduction. Electricity price regulation is also more beneficial to GDP growth and increase in residential disposable income compared to price liberalization. To this end, returning emission trading scheme revenues to residents can effectively mitigate the adverse impacts caused by market-oriented reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin-gang, Zhao & Shuran, Hu & Hui, Wang & Haowei, Chen & Wenbin, Zhang & Wenjie, Lu, 2024. "Energy, economic, and environmental impacts of electricity market-oriented reform and the carbon emissions trading: A recursive dynamic CGE model in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:298:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224011897
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224011897
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131416?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, Qunli & Ma, Zhe & Meng, Fanxing, 2022. "Long-term impacts of carbon allowance allocation in China: An IC-DCGE model optimized by the hypothesis of imperfectly competitive market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Meng, Sam & Siriwardana, Mahinda & McNeill, Judith & Nelson, Tim, 2018. "The impact of an ETS on the Australian energy sector: An integrated CGE and electricity modelling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 213-224.
    3. Liu, Jinqi & Wang, Jihong & Cardinal, Joel, 2022. "Evolution and reform of UK electricity market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Du, Gang & Yu, Meng & Sun, Chuanwang & Han, Zhao, 2021. "Green innovation effect of emission trading policy on pilot areas and neighboring areas: An analysis based on the spatial econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Kiss, Tibor & Popovics, Steve, 2021. "Evaluation on the effectiveness of energy policies – Evidence from the carbon reductions in 25 countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Huang, Hai & Roland-Holst, David & Springer, Cecilia & Lin, Jiang & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2019. "Emissions trading systems and social equity: A CGE assessment for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1254-1265.
    7. Hu, Yingde & Liu, Jixun & Ahmed, Minhaz, 2022. "Does emission trading policy restrain economy? A county-scale empirical assessment from Zhejiang Province of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Wakiyama, Takako & Zusman, Eric, 2021. "The impact of electricity market reform and subnational climate policy on carbon dioxide emissions across the United States: A path analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Yu, Zhongjue & Geng, Yong & Calzadilla, Alvaro & Bleischwitz, Raimund, 2022. "China's unconventional carbon emissions trading market: The impact of a rate-based cap in the power generation sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    10. Li, Zhiguo & Wang, Jie, 2022. "Spatial spillover effect of carbon emission trading on carbon emission reduction: Empirical data from pilot regions in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    11. Tan, Xiujie & Liu, Yishuang & Dong, Hanmin & Zhang, Zhan, 2022. "The effect of carbon emission trading scheme on energy efficiency: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 506-517.
    12. Chen, Zhe & Song, Pei & Wang, Baolu, 2021. "Carbon emissions trading scheme, energy efficiency and rebound effect – Evidence from China's provincial data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    13. Chernenko, Nadia, 2015. "Market power issues in the reformed Russian electricity supply industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 315-323.
    14. Yu, Xianyu & Hu, Yuezhi & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Qunwei & Sang, Xiuzhi & Huang, Kai, 2023. "Carbon emission reduction analysis for cloud computing industry: Can carbon emissions trading and technology innovation help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Sun, Chuanwang & Xu, Zhehong & Zheng, Hongwei, 2023. "Green transformation of the building industry and the government policy effects: Policy simulation based on the DSGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    16. Hoffmann, Anders N., 2003. "Imperfect competition in computable general equilibrium models -- a primer," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 119-139, January.
    17. Chi, Yuan-ying & Zhao, Hao & Hu, Yu & Yuan, Yong-ke & Pang, Yue-xia, 2022. "The impact of allocation methods on carbon emission trading under electricity marketization reform in China: A system dynamics analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    18. Fabra, Natalia, 2023. "Reforming European electricity markets: Lessons from the energy crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio, 2015. "Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-21.
    20. Agyeman, Stephen Duah & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Electricity industry (de)regulation and innovation in negative-emission technologies: How do market liberalization influences climate change mitigation?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    21. Liu, HuiHui & Zhang, ZhongXiang & Chen, Zhan-Ming & Dou, DeSheng, 2019. "The impact of China's electricity price deregulation on coal and power industries: Two-stage game modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    22. Dynge, Marthe Fogstad & Berg, Kjersti & Bjarghov, Sigurd & Cali, Ümit, 2023. "Local electricity market pricing mechanisms’ impact on welfare distribution, privacy and transparency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    23. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang & Wen, Shiyan, 2022. "Electricity market Reform: The perspective of price regulation and carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    24. Konan, Denise Eby & Van Assche, Ari, 2007. "Regulation, market structure and service trade liberalization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 895-923, November.
    25. Ribó-Pérez, David & Van der Weijde, Adriaan H. & Álvarez-Bel, Carlos, 2019. "Effects of self-generation in imperfectly competitive electricity markets: The case of Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    26. Yu, Xianyu & Wu, Zemin & Wang, Qunwei & Sang, Xiuzhi & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Exploring the investment strategy of power enterprises under the nationwide carbon emissions trading mechanism: A scenario-based system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    27. Yu, Zhongjue & Geng, Yong & Calzadilla, Alvaro & Wei, Wendong & Bleischwitz, Raimund, 2023. "Combining mandatory coal power phaseout and emissions trading in China's power sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    28. Zhang, Lirong & Li, Yakun & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of carbon allowance allocation on power industry in China’s carbon trading market: Computable general equilibrium based analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 814-827.
    29. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie, 2016. "The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota: A dynamic recursive CGE model in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-14.
    30. Liu, Yunqiang & Liu, Sha & Shao, Xiaoyu & He, Yanqiu, 2022. "Policy spillover effect and action mechanism for environmental rights trading on green innovation: Evidence from China's carbon emissions trading policy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    31. Xiao, Kun & Yu, Bolin & Cheng, Lei & Li, Fei & Fang, Debin, 2022. "The effects of CCUS combined with renewable energy penetration under the carbon peak by an SD-CGE model: Evidence from China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    32. repec:hal:journl:halshs-02860013 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Kirchner, Mathias & Sommer, Mark & Kratena, Kurt & Kletzan-Slamanig, Daniela & Kettner-Marx, Claudia, 2019. "CO2 taxes, equity and the double dividend – Macroeconomic model simulations for Austria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 295-314.
    34. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "How to achieve the first step of the carbon-neutrality 2060 target in China: The coal substitution perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    35. Li, Mingquan & Gao, Huiwen & Abdulla, Ahmed & Shan, Rui & Gao, Shuo, 2022. "Combined effects of carbon pricing and power market reform on CO2 emissions reduction in China's electricity sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    36. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "What will China's carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement? A CGE based study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 301-311.
    37. Zhao, Xiaoli & Sun, Chuyu & Zhong, Zewei & Liu, Suwei & Yang, Zili, 2023. "Effect of market structure on renewable energy Development—A simulation study of a regional electricity market in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    38. Li, Wei & Lu, Can & Zhang, Yan-Wu, 2019. "Prospective exploration of future renewable portfolio standard schemes in China via a multi-sector CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 45-56.
    39. Huimin Bi & Hao Xiao & Kejuan Sun, 2019. "The Impact of Carbon Market and Carbon Tax on Green Growth Pathway in China: A Dynamic CGE Model Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(6), pages 1312-1325, May.
    40. Mastropietro, Paolo & Rodilla, Pablo & Rangel, Lina Escobar & Batlle, Carlos, 2020. "Reforming the colombian electricity market for an efficient integration of renewables: A proposal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    41. Hwang, Won-Sik & Lee, Jeong-Dong, 2015. "A CGE analysis for quantitative evaluation of electricity market changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-81.
    42. Xiao, De & Yu, Fan & Guo, Chenhao, 2023. "The impact of China's pilot carbon ETS on the labor income share: Based on an empirical method of combining PSM with staggered DID," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Hongyu & Zhang, Da & Guo, Siyue & Zhang, Xiliang, 2024. "Impact of benchmark tightening design under output-based ETS on China's power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    2. Zhao, Jing & Zhang, Qin & Zhou, Dequn, 2023. "Can marketed on-grid price drive the realization of energy transition in China’s power industry under the background of carbon neutrality?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    3. Tan, Xiujie & Sun, Qian & Wang, Meiji & Se Cheong, Tsun & Yan Shum, Wai & Huang, Jinpeng, 2022. "Assessing the effects of emissions trading systems on energy consumption and energy mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    4. Yidan Chen & Jiang Lin & David Roland-Holst & Xu Liu & Can Wang, 2023. "Declining Renewable Costs, Emissions Trading, and Economic Growth: China’s Power System at the Crossroads," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-14, January.
    5. Mardones, Cristian & Ortega, José, 2021. "Are the emissions trading systems’ simulations generated with a computable general equilibrium model sensitive to the nested production structure?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    6. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang & Wen, Shiyan, 2022. "Electricity market Reform: The perspective of price regulation and carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    7. Brown, Marilyn A. & Li, Yufei & Soni, Anmol, 2020. "Are all jobs created equal? Regional employment impacts of a U.S. carbon tax," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    8. Zhang, Yanfang & Wei, Jinpeng & Gao, Qi & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhou, Dequn, 2022. "Coordination between the energy-consumption permit trading scheme and carbon emissions trading: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Liu, Feng & van den Bergh, Jeroen & Wei, Yihang, 2024. "Testing mechanisms through which China's ETS promotes a low-carbon transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Li, Yan & Feng, Tian-tian & Liu, Li-li & Zhang, Meng-xi, 2023. "How do the electricity market and carbon market interact and achieve integrated development?--A bibliometric-based review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    11. Gao, Ming, 2023. "The impacts of carbon trading policy on China's low-carbon economy based on county-level perspectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    12. Wang, Hao-ran & Feng, Tian-tian & Zhong, Cheng, 2023. "Effectiveness of CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices under “electricity-carbon” market coupling in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    13. Wang, Benke & Li, Chunhua & Ban, Yongshuang & Zhao, Zeming & Wang, Zengxu, 2024. "A two-tier bidding model considering a multi-stage offer‑carbon joint incentive clearing mechanism for coupled electricity and carbon markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    14. Chen, Shuyang & Wang, Can, 2023. "Inequality impacts of ETS penalties: A case study on the recent Chinese nationwide ETS market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "How does tax system on energy industries affect energy demand, CO2 emissions, and economy in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Qianyi Du & Haoran Pan & Shuang Liang & Xiaoxue Liu, 2023. "Can Green Credit Policies Accelerate the Realization of the Dual Carbon Goal in China? Examination Based on an Endogenous Financial CGE Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-26, March.
    17. Che, Shuai & Wang, Jun & Chen, Honghang, 2023. "Can China's decentralized energy governance reduce carbon emissions? Evidence from new energy demonstration cities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    18. Yu, Xiaolin & Wan, Kai & Du, Qunyang, 2023. "Can carbon market policies achieve a “point-to-surface” effect?—Quasi-experimental evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    19. Sun, Yanming & Shen, Simiao & Zhou, Chuanyu, 2023. "Does the pilot emissions trading system in China promote innovation? Evidence based on green technology innovation in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    20. Hao, Xinyu & Sun, Wen & Zhang, Xiaoling, 2023. "How does a scarcer allowance remake the carbon market? An evolutionary game analysis from the perspective of stakeholders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:298:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224011897. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.