IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v140y2020ics0301421520301634.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the investment strategy of power enterprises under the nationwide carbon emissions trading mechanism: A scenario-based system dynamics approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Xianyu
  • Wu, Zemin
  • Wang, Qunwei
  • Sang, Xiuzhi
  • Zhou, Dequn

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the appropriate investment strategy for Chinese power enterprises with the effect of the nationwide carbon emissions trading (NCET) market. Based on the system dynamics (SD) theory and the analysis of investment strategies, the SD model for the investment analysis of power enterprises is proposed. The simulation experiments based on three different investment policy scenarios (i.e., conservative, neutral and active) are conducted. According to the simulation results, the reasonable short-term investment for enterprises should be increased. If enterprises choose to invest more resources in the installation of green powers (hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic), their carbon emissions and profits may be more difficult to achieve qualitative changes in the short term. It is suggested that before the establishment of NCET market, enterprises should give priority to investing in clean technology instead of large-scale green energy installation. In the long run, increasing the investment of green power generation will help enterprises resist the rising cost of carbon trading. In addition, even in the conservative policy environment, the enterprise can still achieve its carbon discharges peak value before 2030, so the government may consider adopting a loose policy standard to support the economic interests of power enterprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Xianyu & Wu, Zemin & Wang, Qunwei & Sang, Xiuzhi & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Exploring the investment strategy of power enterprises under the nationwide carbon emissions trading mechanism: A scenario-based system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520301634
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111409
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520301634
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111409?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esmaieli, M. & Ahmadian, M., 2018. "The effect of research and development incentive on wind power investment, a system dynamics approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 765-773.
    2. Simone Borghesi, 2011. "The European emission trading scheme and renewable energy policies: credible targets for incredible results?," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 312-327.
    3. Wang, Peng & Dai, Han-cheng & Ren, Song-yan & Zhao, Dai-qing & Masui, Toshihiko, 2015. "Achieving Copenhagen target through carbon emission trading: Economic impacts assessment in Guangdong Province of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 212-227.
    4. Duan, Hongbo & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie, 2016. "The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota: A dynamic recursive CGE model in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Jiang, Jingjing & Xie, Dejun & Ye, Bin & Shen, Bo & Chen, Zhanming, 2016. "Research on China’s cap-and-trade carbon emission trading scheme: Overview and outlook," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 902-917.
    7. Tu, Qiang & Betz, Regina & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying, 2019. "The profitability of onshore wind and solar PV power projects in China - A comparative study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 404-417.
    8. Ming, Zeng & Kun, Zhang & Jun, Dong, 2013. "Overall review of China's wind power industry: Status quo, existing problems and perspective for future development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 379-386.
    9. Yang, Lin & Li, Fengyu & Zhang, Xian, 2016. "Chinese companies’ awareness and perceptions of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS): Evidence from a national survey in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 254-265.
    10. Guo, Xiaodan & Guo, Xiaopeng, 2015. "China's photovoltaic power development under policy incentives: A system dynamics analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 589-598.
    11. Mo, Jian-Lei & Agnolucci, Paolo & Jiang, Mao-Rong & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of Chinese carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on low carbon energy (LCE) investment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 271-283.
    12. Zhu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Fan, Y.R. & Nie, S., 2015. "A dynamic model to optimize municipal electric power systems by considering carbon emission trading under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 636-649.
    13. Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2012. "Experimental comparison of impact of auction format on carbon allowance market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 4148-4156.
    14. Duan, Hongbo & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-60.
    15. Tu, Qiang & Betz, Regina & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Liu, Yu, 2019. "Achieving grid parity of wind power in China – Present levelized cost of electricity and future evolution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1053-1064.
    16. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Ao-Dong & Tan, Weiping, 2015. "The impact of China's carbon allowance allocation rules on the product prices and emission reduction behaviors of ETS-covered enterprises," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 176-185.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hua Pan & Huimin Zhu & Minmin Teng, 2023. "Low-Carbon Transformation Strategy for Blockchain-Based Power Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
    2. Wu, Jiansong & Zhang, Linlin & Bai, Yiping & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    3. Keke Wang & Dongxiao Niu & Min Yu & Yi Liang & Xiaolong Yang & Jing Wu & Xiaomin Xu, 2021. "Analysis and Countermeasures of China’s Green Electric Power Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Tan, Xiujie & Sun, Qian & Wang, Meiji & Se Cheong, Tsun & Yan Shum, Wai & Huang, Jinpeng, 2022. "Assessing the effects of emissions trading systems on energy consumption and energy mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    5. Wang, Delu & Gan, Jun & Mao, Jinqi & Chen, Fan & Yu, Lan, 2023. "Forecasting power demand in China with a CNN-LSTM model including multimodal information," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    6. Feng, Huchen & Hu, Yu-Jie & Li, Chengjiang & Wang, Honglei, 2023. "Rolling horizon optimisation strategy and initial carbon allowance allocation model to reduce carbon emissions in the power industry: Case of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    7. Yu, Xianyu & Ge, Shengxian & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Qunwei & Chang, Ching-Ter & Sang, Xiuzhi, 2022. "Whether feed-in tariff can be effectively replaced or not? An integrated analysis of renewable portfolio standards and green certificate trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    8. Du, Puliang & Zhou, Bo & Yang, Miaoheng, 2024. "Carbon emission reduction contribution analysis of electricity enterprises in urban green development: A quantum spherical fuzzy sets-based decision framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. Wu, Zemin & Wu, Qiuwei & Yu, Xianyu & Wang, Qunwei & Tan, Jin, 2024. "Exploring phase-out path of China's coal power plants with its dynamic impact on electricity balance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Hendalianpour, Ayad & Liu, Peide & Amirghodsi, Sirous & Hamzehlou, Mohammad, 2022. "Designing a System Dynamics model to simulate criteria affecting oil and gas development contracts," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Xi Chen & Zhigang Chen, 2021. "Can Green Finance Development Reduce Carbon Emissions? Empirical Evidence from 30 Chinese Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, November.
    12. Bai, Rui & Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Xiying, 2021. "Government subsidies and firm-level renewable energy investment: New evidence from partially linear functional-coefficient models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    13. Song, Xiao-hua & Han, Jing-jing & Zhang, Lu & Zhao, Cai-ping & Wang, Peng & Liu, Xiao-yan & Li, Qiao-chu, 2021. "Impacts of renewable portfolio standards on multi-market coupling trading of renewable energy in China: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Huaibo Yang & Chao Shi & Jianbo Li & Tianran Liu & Youwei Li & Yao Wang & Yueying Yang, 2022. "Has the Inter-Regional Power Transmission Promoted Economic Development? A Quantitative Assessment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-13, October.
    15. Ma, Xiaochen & Pan, Yanchun & Zhang, Manzi & Ma, Jianhua & Yang, Wen, 2024. "Impact of carbon emission trading and renewable energy development policy on the sustainability of electricity market: A stackelberg game analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Yang, Yuxue & Yu, Huimin & Su, Xiang & Wang, Rong, 2023. "Exploring the role of green finance and natural resource policies in carbon emission efficiency of China's manufacturing industry in the context of post-COVID-19 period," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    17. Xu, Bin, 2023. "Exploring the sustainable growth pathway of wind power in China: Using the semiparametric regression model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    18. Chu, Baoju & Lin, Boqiang & Tian, Lichun & Zheng, Chaofeng & Ye, Nan & Zhu, Yafang & Tan, Zhizhou, 2024. "A long-term impact assessment of carbon capture (storage) investment conducted by conventional power company on sustainable development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    19. Xin-gang, Zhao & Shuran, Hu & Hui, Wang & Haowei, Chen & Wenbin, Zhang & Wenjie, Lu, 2024. "Energy, economic, and environmental impacts of electricity market-oriented reform and the carbon emissions trading: A recursive dynamic CGE model in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    20. Qiao, Sen & Zhao, Dong Hao & Guo, Zi Xin & Tao, Zhang, 2022. "Factor price distortions, environmental regulation and innovation efficiency: An empirical study on China's power enterprises," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    21. Zhang, Xinyue & Guo, Xiaopeng & Zhang, Xingping, 2023. "Assessing the policy synergy among power, carbon emissions trading and tradable green certificate market mechanisms on strategic GENCOs in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tu, Qiang & Mo, Jianlei & Betz, Regina & Cui, Lianbiao & Fan, Ying & Liu, Yu, 2020. "Achieving grid parity of solar PV power in China- The role of Tradable Green Certificate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Jiang, Jingjing & Xie, Dejun & Ye, Bin & Shen, Bo & Chen, Zhanming, 2016. "Research on China’s cap-and-trade carbon emission trading scheme: Overview and outlook," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 902-917.
    3. Tu, Qiang & Betz, Regina & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying, 2019. "The profitability of onshore wind and solar PV power projects in China - A comparative study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 404-417.
    4. Xie, Li & Zhou, Zhichao & Hui, Shimin, 2022. "Does environmental regulation improve the structure of power generation technology? Evidence from China's pilot policy on the carbon emissions trading market(CETM)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    5. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Wei, 2021. "How does China's carbon emissions trading (CET) policy affect the investment of CET-covered enterprises?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    6. Chen, Xing & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Towards carbon neutrality by implementing carbon emissions trading scheme: Policy evaluation in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Bin Xiong & Qi Sui, 2023. "Does Carbon Emissions Trading Policy Improve Inclusive Green Resilience in Cities? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-16, August.
    8. Song, Yazhi & Liu, Tiansen & Liang, Dapeng & Li, Yin & Song, Xiaoqiu, 2019. "A Fuzzy Stochastic Model for Carbon Price Prediction Under the Effect of Demand-related Policy in China's Carbon Market," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 253-265.
    9. Yu, Xiaolin & Wan, Kai & Du, Qunyang, 2023. "Can carbon market policies achieve a “point-to-surface” effect?—Quasi-experimental evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    10. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "Impacts of carbon price level in carbon emission trading market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 157-170.
    11. Jiangyue Joy Ying & Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2021. "A fair trade? Expert perceptions of equity, innovation, and public awareness in China’s future Emissions Trading Scheme," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-23, February.
    12. Cheng, Shulei & Wang, Ping & Chen, Boyang & Fan, Wei, 2022. "Decoupling and decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from government spending in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    13. Liangpeng Wu & Qingyuan Zhu, 2021. "Impacts of the carbon emission trading system on China’s carbon emission peak: a new data-driven approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2487-2515, July.
    14. Qiong Chen & Hongyu Zhang & Yui-Yip Lau & Tianni Wang & Wen Wang & Guangsheng Zhang, 2023. "Climate Change, Carbon Peaks, and Carbon Neutralization: A Bibliometric Study from 2006 to 2023," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-12, March.
    15. Mengfei Jiang & Xi Liang & David Reiner & Boqiang Lin & Maosheng Duan, 2018. "Stakeholder Views on Interactions between Low-carbon Policies and Carbon Markets in China: Lessons from the Guangdong ETS," Working Papers EPRG 1805, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    16. Chang, Kai & Ge, Fangping & Zhang, Chao & Wang, Weihong, 2018. "The dynamic linkage effect between energy and emissions allowances price for regional emissions trading scheme pilots in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-425.
    17. Feng Liu & Tao Lv & Yuan Meng & Xiaoran Hou & Jie Xu & Xu Deng, 2022. "Low-Carbon Transition Paths of Coal Power in China’s Provinces under the Context of the Carbon Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-14, August.
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of quota decline scheme of emission trading in China: A dynamic recursive CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 190-203.
    19. Yang, Lin & Li, Fengyu & Zhang, Xian, 2016. "Chinese companies’ awareness and perceptions of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS): Evidence from a national survey in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 254-265.
    20. Baochen Yang & Chuanze Liu & Yunpeng Su & Xin Jing, 2017. "The Allocation of Carbon Intensity Reduction Target by 2020 among Industrial Sectors in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520301634. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.