Least-cost or sustainable? Exploring power sector transition pathways

The 2022 energy crisis augmented the European ambition for RES capacity expansion. However, beyond the issue of “how many” renewables, the research question that remains, is which capacity mixes achieve the emissions reduction, renewable integration, and energy autarky targets in a cost-effective way. This paper tries to answer this inquiry supported by two energy models and one decision support model. The analysis focuses on Greece, as an example country which opted for lignite phase out, turning to temporary heavy reliance on natural gas for power generation. The results indicate that even though from the energy and environmental targets’ perspective, more wind turbines in the RES capacity mix yield better results, when incorporating the economic point of view, balanced wind and solar mixes enable the achievement of targets in a cost-effective way. The most cost-efficient mixes consist of 50–55% wind and 45–50% solar capacity, with cost per additional percentage of RES share in the generation mix, equal to 40 million €. Nevertheless, in order to materialize them in a timely manner, and limit the short-term dependency on imported gas, permitting simplification, tenders for large-scale projects and incentives for small-scale projects are needed to facilitate accelerated RES deployment.