IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v226y2021ics0360544221006447.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis framework for quantitative evaluation of parametric uncertainty in a cooperated energy storage system with multiple energy carriers

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Jing
  • Kang, Lixia
  • Huang, Xiankun
  • Liu, Yongzhong

Abstract

In order to increase the penetration of renewable energy into process industries, it is essential to develop an energy storage system for effectively coordinating the intermittent supplies of renewable energy and the fluctuating demands, but parametric uncertainty reigns. In this work, a four-step analysis framework to quantitatively evaluate impacts of parametric uncertainty on a cooperated energy storage system with multiple energy carriers was proposed. It features the quantitative uncertainty analysis associated with global sensitivity analysis based on the deterministic optimization model for the system. The implementation of the quantitative uncertainty analysis was demonstrated by a cooperated energy storage system to bridge the intermittent renewable energy and the fluctuating demands in refineries. The critical parameters and their impacts on the total annual cost of the system were analyzed. Results show that the proposed analysis framework and the developed solution strategy are effective in quantitatively evaluating parametric uncertainty of the system. The critical parameters vary dramatically under different penetration ratios of renewable energy, but the hydrogen demand is the dominant parameter in all cases. The proposed approach provides a useful tool to support quantitative analysis of uncertainties for utilization of renewable energy in process industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jing & Kang, Lixia & Huang, Xiankun & Liu, Yongzhong, 2021. "An analysis framework for quantitative evaluation of parametric uncertainty in a cooperated energy storage system with multiple energy carriers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:226:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221006447
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120395
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221006447
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120395?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tezer, Tuba & Yaman, Ramazan & Yaman, Gülşen, 2017. "Evaluation of approaches used for optimization of stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 840-853.
    2. Pizarro-Alonso, Amalia & Ravn, Hans & Münster, Marie, 2019. "Uncertainties towards a fossil-free system with high integration of wind energy in long-term planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Zubi, Ghassan & Dufo-López, Rodolfo & Carvalho, Monica & Pasaoglu, Guzay, 2018. "The lithium-ion battery: State of the art and future perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 292-308.
    4. Lewandowska-Bernat, Anna & Desideri, Umberto, 2018. "Opportunities of power-to-gas technology in different energy systems architectures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 57-67.
    5. Olateju, Babatunde & Monds, Joshua & Kumar, Amit, 2014. "Large scale hydrogen production from wind energy for the upgrading of bitumen from oil sands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 48-56.
    6. Coppitters, Diederik & De Paepe, Ward & Contino, Francesco, 2019. "Surrogate-assisted robust design optimization and global sensitivity analysis of a directly coupled photovoltaic-electrolyzer system under techno-economic uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 310-320.
    7. Petkov, Ivalin & Gabrielli, Paolo, 2020. "Power-to-hydrogen as seasonal energy storage: an uncertainty analysis for optimal design of low-carbon multi-energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    8. Pilpola, Sannamari & Lund, Peter D., 2020. "Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    9. Coppitters, Diederik & De Paepe, Ward & Contino, Francesco, 2020. "Robust design optimization and stochastic performance analysis of a grid-connected photovoltaic system with battery storage and hydrogen storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    10. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2016. "Using bias-corrected reanalysis to simulate current and future wind power output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1224-1239.
    11. Jordan, Matthias & Millinger, Markus & Thrän, Daniela, 2020. "Robust bioenergy technologies for the German heat transition: A novel approach combining optimization modeling with Sobol’ sensitivity analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    12. Khiareddine, Abla & Ben Salah, Chokri & Rekioua, Djamila & Mimouni, Mohamed Faouzi, 2018. "Sizing methodology for hybrid photovoltaic /wind/ hydrogen/battery integrated to energy management strategy for pumping system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 743-762.
    13. Yu, Yang & Li, Hong & Che, Yuyuan & Zheng, Qiongjie, 2017. "The price evolution of wind turbines in China: A study based on the modified multi-factor learning curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 522-536.
    14. Kim, Hansung & Cheon, Hyungkyu & Ahn, Young-Hwan & Choi, Dong Gu, 2019. "Uncertainty quantification and scenario generation of future solar photovoltaic price for use in energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 370-379.
    15. Pelaez-Samaniego, Manuel Raul & Riveros-Godoy, Gustavo & Torres-Contreras, Santiago & Garcia-Perez, Tsai & Albornoz-Vintimilla, Esteban, 2014. "Production and use of electrolytic hydrogen in Ecuador towards a low carbon economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 626-631.
    16. Mavromatidis, Georgios & Orehounig, Kristina & Carmeliet, Jan, 2018. "Uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis for the optimal design of distributed energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 219-238.
    17. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Plischke, Elmar, 2016. "Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 869-887.
    18. Gabrielli, Paolo & Gazzani, Matteo & Martelli, Emanuele & Mazzotti, Marco, 2018. "Optimal design of multi-energy systems with seasonal storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 408-424.
    19. Koj, Jan Christian & Wulf, Christina & Zapp, Petra, 2019. "Environmental impacts of power-to-X systems - A review of technological and methodological choices in Life Cycle Assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 865-879.
    20. Buttler, Alexander & Spliethoff, Hartmut, 2018. "Current status of water electrolysis for energy storage, grid balancing and sector coupling via power-to-gas and power-to-liquids: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2440-2454.
    21. Pfenninger, Stefan & Staffell, Iain, 2016. "Long-term patterns of European PV output using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1251-1265.
    22. Das, Choton K. & Bass, Octavian & Kothapalli, Ganesh & Mahmoud, Thair S. & Habibi, Daryoush, 2018. "Overview of energy storage systems in distribution networks: Placement, sizing, operation, and power quality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1205-1230.
    23. Tran, Thomas T.D. & Smith, Amanda D., 2018. "Incorporating performance-based global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis into LCOE calculations for emerging renewable energy technologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 157-171.
    24. Mirakyan, Atom & De Guio, Roland, 2015. "Modelling and uncertainties in integrated energy planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-69.
    25. Mariaud, Arthur & Acha, Salvador & Ekins-Daukes, Ned & Shah, Nilay & Markides, Christos N., 2017. "Integrated optimisation of photovoltaic and battery storage systems for UK commercial buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 466-478.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chong, Cheng Tung & Fan, Yee Van & Lee, Chew Tin & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír, 2022. "Post COVID-19 ENERGY sustainability and carbon emissions neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Wang, Jing & Kang, Lixia & Liu, Yongzhong, 2022. "A multi-objective approach to determine time series aggregation strategies for optimal design of multi-energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    3. Wang, Jing & Kang, Lixia & Liu, Yongzhong, 2024. "Optimal design of a renewable hydrogen production system by coordinating multiple PV arrays and multiple electrolyzers," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    4. Zhu, Junpeng & Huang, Yong & Lu, Shuai & Shen, Mengya & Yuan, Yue, 2024. "Incorporating local uncertainty management into distribution system planning: An adaptive robust optimization approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Petkov, Ivalin & Gabrielli, Paolo, 2020. "Power-to-hydrogen as seasonal energy storage: an uncertainty analysis for optimal design of low-carbon multi-energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    2. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    3. Brodnicke, Linda & Gabrielli, Paolo & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2023. "Impact of policies on residential multi-energy systems for consumers and prosumers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    4. Petkov, Ivalin & Mavromatidis, Georgios & Knoeri, Christof & Allan, James & Hoffmann, Volker H., 2022. "MANGOret: An optimization framework for the long-term investment planning of building multi-energy system and envelope retrofits," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    5. Bartolini, Andrea & Mazzoni, Stefano & Comodi, Gabriele & Romagnoli, Alessandro, 2021. "Impact of carbon pricing on distributed energy systems planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    6. Xin-Cheng Meng & Yeon-Ho Seong & Min-Kyu Lee, 2021. "Research Characteristics and Development Trend of Global Low-Carbon Power—Based on Bibliometric Analysis of 1983–2021," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Coppitters, Diederik & Verleysen, Kevin & De Paepe, Ward & Contino, Francesco, 2022. "How can renewable hydrogen compete with diesel in public transport? Robust design optimization of a hydrogen refueling station under techno-economic and environmental uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    8. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Gorre, Jachin & Ortloff, Felix & van Leeuwen, Charlotte, 2019. "Production costs for synthetic methane in 2030 and 2050 of an optimized Power-to-Gas plant with intermediate hydrogen storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Iva Ridjan Skov & Noémi Schneider & Gerald Schweiger & Josef-Peter Schöggl & Alfred Posch, 2021. "Power-to-X in Denmark: An Analysis of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    11. Oliver Gregor Gorbach & Noha Saad Hussein & Jessica Thomsen, 2021. "Impact of Internal Carbon Prices on the Energy System of an Organisation’s Facilities in Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom Compared to Potential External Carbon Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-41, July.
    12. Wang, Jing & Kang, Lixia & Liu, Yongzhong, 2022. "A multi-objective approach to determine time series aggregation strategies for optimal design of multi-energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    13. Anam Nadeem & Mosè Rossi & Erica Corradi & Lingkang Jin & Gabriele Comodi & Nadeem Ahmed Sheikh, 2022. "Energy-Environmental Planning of Electric Vehicles (EVs): A Case Study of the National Energy System of Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, April.
    14. Fonder, Michaël & Counotte, Pierre & Dachet, Victor & de Séjournet, Jehan & Ernst, Damien, 2024. "Synthetic methane for closing the carbon loop: Comparative study of three carbon sources for remote carbon-neutral fuel synthetization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    15. Pizarro-Alonso, Amalia & Ravn, Hans & Münster, Marie, 2019. "Uncertainties towards a fossil-free system with high integration of wind energy in long-term planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Pickering, Bryn & Choudhary, Ruchi, 2021. "Quantifying resilience in energy systems with out-of-sample testing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    17. Marzi, Emanuela & Morini, Mirko & Saletti, Costanza & Vouros, Stavros & Zaccaria, Valentina & Kyprianidis, Konstantinos & Gambarotta, Agostino, 2023. "Power-to-Gas for energy system flexibility under uncertainty in demand, production and price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    18. Schmid, Fabian & Behrendt, Frank, 2023. "Genetic sizing optimization of residential multi-carrier energy systems: The aim of energy autarky and its cost," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    19. Niu, Jide & Li, Xiaoyuan & Tian, Zhe & Yang, Hongxing, 2023. "A framework for quantifying the value of information to mitigate risk in the optimal design of distributed energy systems under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    20. Xavier Rixhon & Gauthier Limpens & Diederik Coppitters & Hervé Jeanmart & Francesco Contino, 2021. "The Role of Electrofuels under Uncertainties for the Belgian Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-23, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:226:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221006447. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.