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Stochastic optimal operation model for a distributed integrated energy system based on multiple-scenario simulations

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  • Mei, Fei
  • Zhang, Jiatang
  • Lu, Jixiang
  • Lu, Jinjun
  • Jiang, Yuhan
  • Gu, Jiaqi
  • Yu, Kun
  • Gan, Lei

Abstract

Problems related to the uncertainties of the sources and loads in integrated energy systems (IESs) are becoming more prominent with the interconnection of large-scale renewable energy sources and multi-energy loads. Moreover, such scenarios pose great challenges for the optimal operation of IESs. A distributed IES in an industrial park is regarded as the research object, and a stochastic optimal operation model based on multiple-scenario simulations is proposed to consider the prediction uncertainties arising in the case of distributed power generation and multi-energy loads. Specifically, scenario analysis for stochastic optimization is applied to address these prediction uncertainties in a two-part approach: operation scenario generation based on Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and the reduction of multiple scenarios into a smaller number of more general scenarios based on K-means. Afterwards, a day-ahead stochastic optimal operation model for a distributed IES with the total operating economy as the decision-making objective is proposed based on typical operation scenarios. Moreover, the overall energy efficiency and new energy consumption capacity are all considered. In this way, the safe and economical operation of the IES can be guaranteed even under the negative influence of uncertainties. The validity and rationality of the proposed model are verified by analysis of examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Mei, Fei & Zhang, Jiatang & Lu, Jixiang & Lu, Jinjun & Jiang, Yuhan & Gu, Jiaqi & Yu, Kun & Gan, Lei, 2021. "Stochastic optimal operation model for a distributed integrated energy system based on multiple-scenario simulations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:219:y:2021:i:c:s0360544220327365
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119629
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    15. Cai, Pengcheng & Mi, Yang & Ma, Siyuan & Li, Hongzhong & Li, Dongdong & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Hierarchical game for integrated energy system and electricity-hydrogen hybrid charging station under distributionally robust optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
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    17. Yang, Haolin & Xu, Siqi & Gao, Weijun & Wang, Yafei & Li, You & Wei, Xindong, 2024. "Mitigating long-term financial risk for large customers via a hybrid procurement strategy considering power purchase agreements," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    18. Noorollahi, Younes & Golshanfard, Aminabbas & Hashemi-Dezaki, Hamed, 2022. "A scenario-based approach for optimal operation of energy hub under different schemes and structures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
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    20. Wu, Min & Xu, Jiazhu & Zeng, Linjun & Li, Chang & Liu, Yuxing & Yi, Yuqin & Wen, Ming & Jiang, Zhuohan, 2022. "Two-stage robust optimization model for park integrated energy system based on dynamic programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    21. Xiaotian Xia & Liye Xiao, 2023. "Probabilistic Power Flow Method for Hybrid AC/DC Grids Considering Correlation among Uncertainty Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-19, March.
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