IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v191y2020ics0360544219322340.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A multi-objective approach to the prospective development of the European power system by 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Louis, Jean-Nicolas
  • Allard, Stéphane
  • Kotrotsou, Freideriki
  • Debusschere, Vincent

Abstract

This paper reports the recent work carried out to engage both the environmental impact and the economic indicators on the prioritisation of dispatchable technologies in the European energy mix up to 2050. Those two contradictory indicators are incorporated in a multi-criteria optimisation leading to iterations of two scenario: business as usual and 2 °C climate policy. The results present the evolution of the climate change emission versus the operational costs of the power system up to 2050. The yearly electricity mix evaluations allow assessing the long-term development of the European energy system, where a focus is done on variable renewable energy production. It is shown that policy-only solutions, associated with a traditional cost-oriented optimisation, have a limited impact on helping the power sector to reach emission levels targets. Integrating the objective of reducing emissions to the management of power plants would reduce the absolute and cumulative carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. The counterpart is that the system electricity price tends to increase faster thus implying increased social costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis, Jean-Nicolas & Allard, Stéphane & Kotrotsou, Freideriki & Debusschere, Vincent, 2020. "A multi-objective approach to the prospective development of the European power system by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:191:y:2020:i:c:s0360544219322340
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.116539
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219322340
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116539?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Després, Jacques & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Criqui, Patrick & Noirot, Isabelle, 2015. "Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 486-495.
    2. Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte, 2016. "Carpe diem: A novel approach to select representative days for long-term power system modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 430-442.
    3. Mahbub, Md Shahriar & Cozzini, Marco & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Alberti, Fabrizio, 2016. "Combining multi-objective evolutionary algorithms and descriptive analytical modelling in energy scenario design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 140-151.
    4. Geng, Zhaowei & Conejo, Antonio J. & Chen, Qixin & Xia, Qing & Kang, Chongqing, 2017. "Electricity production scheduling under uncertainty: Max social welfare vs. min emission vs. max renewable production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 540-549.
    5. Alban Kitous, Patrick Criqui, Elie Bellevrat and Bertrand Chateau, 2010. "Transformation Patterns of the Worldwide Energy System - Scenarios for the Century with the POLES Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    6. Sithole, H. & Cockerill, T.T. & Hughes, K.J. & Ingham, D.B. & Ma, L. & Porter, R.T.J. & Pourkashanian, M., 2016. "Developing an optimal electricity generation mix for the UK 2050 future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 363-373.
    7. Quiggin, Daniel & Buswell, Richard, 2016. "The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 253-270.
    8. Jean-Nicolas Louis & Stéphane Allard & Vincent Debusschere & Silvana Mima & Tuan Tran-Quoc & Nouredine Hadjsaid, 2018. "Environmental impact indicators for the electricity mix and network development planning towards 2050 – A POLES and EUTGRID model," Post-Print hal-01863887, HAL.
    9. Després, Jacques & Mima, Silvana & Kitous, Alban & Criqui, Patrick & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Noirot, Isabelle, 2017. "Storage as a flexibility option in power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy sources: a POLES-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 638-650.
    10. Louis, Jean-Nicolas & Allard, Stéphane & Debusschere, Vincent & Mima, Silvana & Tran-Quoc, Tuan & Hadjsaid, Nouredine, 2018. "Environmental impact indicators for the electricity mix and network development planning towards 2050 – A POLES and EUTGRID model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 618-628.
    11. Shi, Bin & Yan, Lie-Xiang & Wu, Wei, 2013. "Multi-objective optimization for combined heat and power economic dispatch with power transmission loss and emission reduction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 135-143.
    12. David L. McCollum & Wenji Zhou & Christoph Bertram & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Valentina Bosetti & Sebastian Busch & Jacques Després & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Marianne Fay & Oliver Fricko & Sh, 2018. "Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 589-599, July.
    13. Stéphane Allard & Silvana Mima & Vincent Debusschere & Tuan Tran Quoc & Patrick Criqui & Nouredine Hadjsaid, 2017. "Long-Term Transmission Capacity Planning In A Scenario With High Share Of Variable Renewable Energies," Post-Print hal-01631004, HAL.
    14. Blarke, Morten B. & Jenkins, Bryan M., 2013. "SuperGrid or SmartGrid: Competing strategies for large-scale integration of intermittent renewables?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 381-390.
    15. Kimon Keramidas & Alban Kitous & Jacques Despres & Andreas Schmitz & Ana Diaz Vazquez & Silvana Mima & Peter Russ & Tobias Wiesenthal, 2017. "POLES-JRC model documentation," JRC Research Reports JRC107387, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Alderson, Helen & Cranston, Gemma R. & Hammond, Geoffrey P., 2012. "Carbon and environmental footprinting of low carbon UK electricity futures to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 96-107.
    17. Lund, Henrik & Duić, Neven & Krajac˘ić, Goran & Graça Carvalho, Maria da, 2007. "Two energy system analysis models: A comparison of methodologies and results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 948-954.
    18. Boßmann, T. & Staffell, I., 2015. "The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1317-1333.
    19. Rečka, L. & Ščasný, M., 2016. "Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 19-33.
    20. Bird, Lori & Lew, Debra & Milligan, Michael & Carlini, E. Maria & Estanqueiro, Ana & Flynn, Damian & Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio & Holttinen, Hannele & Menemenlis, Nickie & Orths, Antje & Eriksen, Peter Børr, 2016. "Wind and solar energy curtailment: A review of international experience," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 577-586.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Stephan Kigle & Michael Ebner & Andrej Guminski, 2022. "Greenhouse Gas Abatement in EUROPE—A Scenario-Based, Bottom-Up Analysis Showing the Effect of Deep Emission Mitigation on the European Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Zapata, Sebastian & Castaneda, Monica & Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac, 2023. "Investigating the concurrence of transmission grid expansion and the dissemination of renewables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    4. Phylicia Cicilio & David Glennon & Adam Mate & Arthur Barnes & Vishvas Chalishazar & Eduardo Cotilla-Sanchez & Bjorn Vaagensmith & Jake Gentle & Craig Rieger & Richard Wies & Mohammad Heidari Kapourch, 2021. "Resilience in an Evolving Electrical Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Xin-Cheng Meng & Yeon-Ho Seong & Min-Kyu Lee, 2021. "Research Characteristics and Development Trend of Global Low-Carbon Power—Based on Bibliometric Analysis of 1983–2021," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Borasio, M. & Moret, S., 2022. "Deep decarbonisation of regional energy systems: A novel modelling approach and its application to the Italian energy transition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Horasan, Muhammed Bilal & Kilic, Huseyin Selcuk, 2022. "A multi-objective decision-making model for renewable energy planning: The case of Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 484-504.
    8. Potrč, Sanja & Nemet, Andreja & Čuček, Lidija & Varbanov, Petar Sabev & Kravanja, Zdravko, 2022. "Synthesis of a regenerative energy system – beyond carbon emissions neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean-Nicolas Louis & Stéphane Allard & Freideriki Kotrotsou & Vincent Debusschere, 2020. "A multi-objective approach to the prospective development of the European power system by 2050," Post-Print hal-02376337, HAL.
    2. Allard, Stéphane & Debusschere, Vincent & Mima, Silvana & Quoc, Tuan Tran & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Criqui, Patrick, 2020. "Considering distribution grids and local flexibilities in the prospective development of the European power system by 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    3. Louis, Jean-Nicolas & Allard, Stéphane & Debusschere, Vincent & Mima, Silvana & Tran-Quoc, Tuan & Hadjsaid, Nouredine, 2018. "Environmental impact indicators for the electricity mix and network development planning towards 2050 – A POLES and EUTGRID model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 618-628.
    4. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Niina Helistö & Juha Kiviluoma & Hannele Holttinen & Jose Daniel Lara & Bri‐Mathias Hodge, 2019. "Including operational aspects in the planning of power systems with large amounts of variable generation: A review of modeling approaches," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(5), September.
    6. Savvidis, Georgios & Siala, Kais & Weissbart, Christoph & Schmidt, Lukas & Borggrefe, Frieder & Kumar, Subhash & Pittel, Karen & Madlener, Reinhard & Hufendiek, Kai, 2019. "The gap between energy policy challenges and model capabilities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 503-520.
    7. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Ueckerdt, Falko & Carrara, Samuel & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & Després, Jacques & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Johnson, Nils & Kitous, Alban & Scholz, Yvonne & Sullivan, Patrick & Ludere, 2017. "System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 583-599.
    8. Stéphane Allard & Vincent Debusschere & Silvana Mima & Tuan Tran Quoc & Nouredine Hadjsaid & Patrick Criqui, 2020. "Considering distribution grids and local flexibilities in the prospective development of the European power system by 2050," Post-Print hal-03133109, HAL.
    9. Borasio, M. & Moret, S., 2022. "Deep decarbonisation of regional energy systems: A novel modelling approach and its application to the Italian energy transition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    10. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Moser, David & Nastasi, Benedetto & Sparber, Wolfram, 2020. "Classification and challenges of bottom-up energy system models - A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Clemens Gerbaulet & Casimir Lorenz, 2017. "dynELMOD: A Dynamic Investment and Dispatch Model for the Future European Electricity Market," Data Documentation 88, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Spittler, Nathalie & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Shafiei, Ehsan & Diemer, Arnaud, 2021. "Implications of renewable resource dynamics for energy system planning: The case of geothermal and hydropower in Kenya," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Merrick, James H. & Bistline, John E.T. & Blanford, Geoffrey J., 2024. "On representation of energy storage in electricity planning models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Lionetti, Matteo & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Sparber, Wolfram & Moser, David, 2019. "Transition pathways optimization methodology through EnergyPLAN software for long-term energy planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 356-368.
    15. Yazdanie, M. & Orehounig, K., 2021. "Advancing urban energy system planning and modeling approaches: Gaps and solutions in perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. Mahbub, Md Shahriar & Viesi, Diego & Cattani, Sara & Crema, Luigi, 2017. "An innovative multi-objective optimization approach for long-term energy planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1487-1504.
    17. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Nastasi, Benedetto & Groppi, Daniele & Misconel, Steffi & Garcia, Davide Astiaso & Sparber, Wolfram, 2022. "Comparison methods of energy system frameworks, models and scenario results," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Haugen, Mari & Blaisdell-Pijuan, Paris L. & Botterud, Audun & Levin, Todd & Zhou, Zhi & Belsnes, Michael & Korpås, Magnus & Somani, Abhishek, 2024. "Power market models for the clean energy transition: State of the art and future research needs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    19. Stéphane Allard & Silvana Mima & Vincent Debusschere & Tuan Tran Quoc & Patrick Criqui & Nouredine Hadjsaid, 2020. "European transmission grid expansion as a flexibility option in a scenario of large scale variable renewable energies integration," Post-Print hal-02502378, HAL.
    20. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:191:y:2020:i:c:s0360544219322340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.