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Integrating long-term economic scenarios into peak load forecasting: An application to Spain

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  • Moral-Carcedo, Julián
  • Pérez-García, Julián

Abstract

The treatment of trend components in electricity demand is critical for long-term peak load forecasting. When forecasting high frequency variables, like daily or hourly loads, a typical problem is how to make long-term scenarios - regarding demographics, GDP growth, etc. - compatible with short-term projections. Traditional procedures that apply de-trending methods are unable to simulate forecasts under alternative long-term scenarios. On the other hand, existing models that allow for changes in long-term trends tend to be characterized by end-of-year discontinuities. In this paper a novel forecasting procedure is presented that improves upon these approaches and is able to combine long and short-term features by employing temporal disaggregation techniques. This method is applied to forecast electricity load for Spain and its performance is compared to that of a nonlinear autoregressive neural network with exogenous inputs. Our proposed procedure is flexible enough to be applied to different scenarios based on alternative assumptions regarding both long-term trends as well as short-term projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Moral-Carcedo, Julián & Pérez-García, Julián, 2017. "Integrating long-term economic scenarios into peak load forecasting: An application to Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 682-695.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:140:y:2017:i:p1:p:682-695
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.08.113
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Peak load forecasting; Load curve forecasting; Long-term scenarios; Temporal disaggregation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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