IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v124y2017icp372-381.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A probabilistic approach to the computation of the levelized cost of electricity

Author

Listed:
  • Geissmann, Thomas

Abstract

This paper sets forth a novel approach to calculate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) using a probabilistic model that accounts for endogenous input parameters. The approach is applied to the example of a nuclear and gas power project. Monte Carlo simulation results show that a correlation between input parameters has a significant effect on the model outcome. By controlling for endogeneity, a statistically significant difference in the mean LCOE estimate and a change in the order of input leverages is observed. Moreover, the paper discusses the role of discounting options and external costs in detail. In contrast to the gas power project, the economic viability of the nuclear project is considerably weaker.

Suggested Citation

  • Geissmann, Thomas, 2017. "A probabilistic approach to the computation of the levelized cost of electricity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 372-381.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:372-381
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217302529
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.078?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabien A. Roques & William J. Nuttall & David M. Newbery & Richard de Neufville & Stephen Connors, 2006. "Nuclear Power: A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-24.
    2. Feretic, Danilo & Tomsic, Zeljko, 2005. "Probabilistic analysis of electrical energy costs comparing: production costs for gas, coal and nuclear power plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-13, January.
    3. Lucas Davis & Catherine Hausman, 2016. "Market Impacts of a Nuclear Power Plant Closure," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 92-122, April.
    4. Roques, F.A. & Nuttall, W.J. & Newbery, D.M., 2006. "Using Probabilistic Analysis to Value Power Generation Investments Under Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0650, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Linares, Pedro & Conchado, Adela, 2013. "The economics of new nuclear power plants in liberalized electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 119-125.
    6. Ahmad, Ali & Ramana, M.V., 2014. "Too costly to matter: Economics of nuclear power for Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 682-694.
    7. Marian Radetzki, 2000. "Coal or Nuclear in New Power Stations: The Political Economy of an Undesirable but Necessary Choice," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 135-147.
    8. Branker, K. & Pathak, M.J.M. & Pearce, J.M., 2011. "A review of solar photovoltaic levelized cost of electricity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4470-4482.
    9. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    10. D Evans, 2008. "Social Project Appraisal and Discounting for the Very Long Term," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(1), pages 61-70, March.
    11. Fabien A. Roques & William J. Nuttall & David M. Newbery & Richard de Neufville & Stephen Connors, 2006. "Nuclear Power: A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-24.
    12. David Pearce & Ben Groom & Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri, 2003. "Valuing the Future," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, April.
    13. Ederer, Nikolaus, 2016. "The price of rapid offshore wind expansion in the UK: Implications of a profitability assessment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 357-365.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiang Huang & Yapan Qu & Zhentao Zhu & Qiuchi Wu, 2023. "Techno-Economic Analysis of Photovoltaic Hydrogen Production Considering Technological Progress Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-29, February.
    2. Lynch, Muireann Á & Devine, Mel & Bertsch, Valentin, 2018. "The role of power-to-gas in the future energy system: how much is needed and who wants to invest?," Papers WP590, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Chenglong Guo & Wanan Sheng & Dakshina G. De Silva & George Aggidis, 2023. "A Review of the Levelized Cost of Wave Energy Based on a Techno-Economic Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-30, February.
    4. Aldersey-Williams, John & Broadbent, Ian D. & Strachan, Peter A., 2020. "Analysis of United Kingdom offshore wind farm performance using public data: Improving the evidence base for policymaking," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Tazi, Nacef & Safaei, Fatemeh & Hnaien, Faicel, 2022. "Assessment of the levelized cost of energy using a stochastic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    6. Bartnik, Ryszard & Hnydiuk-Stefan, Anna & Buryn, Zbigniew, 2018. "Analysis of the impact of technical and economic parameters on the specific cost of electricity production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 965-979.
    7. Shen, Wei & Chen, Xi & Qiu, Jing & Hayward, Jennifier A & Sayeef, Saad & Osman, Peter & Meng, Ke & Dong, Zhao Yang, 2020. "A comprehensive review of variable renewable energy levelized cost of electricity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Borna Doračić & Tomislav Novosel & Tomislav Pukšec & Neven Duić, 2018. "Evaluation of Excess Heat Utilization in District Heating Systems by Implementing Levelized Cost of Excess Heat," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-14, March.
    9. Hanak, Dawid P. & Manovic, Vasilije, 2017. "Economic feasibility of calcium looping under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 691-702.
    10. Prakash, Vrishab & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2020. "Costs of avoided carbon emission from thermal and renewable sources of power in India and policy implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    11. Bistline, John E. & Comello, Stephen D. & Sahoo, Anshuman, 2018. "Managerial flexibility in levelized cost measures: A framework for incorporating uncertainty in energy investment decisions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 211-225.
    12. Lynch, Muireann & Devine, Mel T. & Bertsch, Valentin, 2019. "The role of power-to-gas in the future energy system: Market and portfolio effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1197-1209.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roques, Fabien A., 2008. "Technology choices for new entrants in liberalized markets: The value of operating flexibility and contractual arrangements," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 245-253, December.
    2. Gross, Robert & Blyth, William & Heptonstall, Philip, 2010. "Risks, revenues and investment in electricity generation: Why policy needs to look beyond costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 796-804, July.
    3. Mondello, Gérard, 2015. "Splitting nuclear parks or not? The third party liability role," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 553-559.
    4. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & Riesz, Jenny & MacGill, Iain F., 2015. "Using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties—An Australian case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 43-56.
    5. Sunderkötter, Malte & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Valuing fuel diversification in power generation capacity planning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1664-1674.
    6. Roth, Michael Buchdahl & Jaramillo, Paulina, 2017. "Going nuclear for climate mitigation: An analysis of the cost effectiveness of preserving existing U.S. nuclear power plants as a carbon avoidance strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 67-77.
    7. David M. Newbery & David M. Reiner & Robert A. Ritz, 2018. "When is a carbon price floor desirable?," Working Papers EPRG 1816, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    8. Newbery, David, 2018. "Policies for decarbonizing a liberalized power sector," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-24.
    9. Winkler, Ralph, 2009. "Now or Never: Environmental Protection under Hyperbolic Discounting," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-22.
    10. Newbery, David, 2016. "Missing money and missing markets: Reliability, capacity auctions and interconnectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 401-410.
    11. María del Carmen Gómez-Ríos & David Juárez-Luna, 2019. "Costo de generación eléctrica incorporando externalidades ambientales: Mezcla óptima de tecnologías de carga base," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(3), pages 353-377, Julio - S.
    12. Konsta Värri & Sanna Syri, 2019. "The Possible Role of Modular Nuclear Reactors in District Heating: Case Helsinki Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, June.
    13. D. Finon & F. Roques, 2008. "Financing Arrangements and Industrial Organisation for New Nuclear Build in Electricity Markets," Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, Intersentia, vol. 9(3), pages 247-282, September.
    14. Hauteclocque, Adrien de & Glachant, Jean-Michel, 2009. "Long-term energy supply contracts in European competition policy: Fuzzy not crazy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5399-5407, December.
    15. Meunier, Guy, 2010. "Capacity choice, technology mix and market power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1306-1315, November.
    16. Kessides, Ioannis N., 2010. "Nuclear power: Understanding the economic risks and uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3849-3864, August.
    17. Karbowski, Adam, 2016. "Discussion on the Social Rate of Discount: from Sen to Behavioural Economics," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 46-60.
    18. Cartelle Barros, Juan José & Lara Coira, Manuel & de la Cruz López, María Pilar & del Caño Gochi, Alfredo, 2015. "Assessing the global sustainability of different electricity generation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 473-489.
    19. Juárez-Luna, David, 2020. "Beneficios económicos y ambientales de la energía nuclear [Economic and environmental benefits of nuclear energy]," MPRA Paper 98790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:372-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.