IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v102y2016icp436-443.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crude oil price decision under considering emergency and release of strategic petroleum reserves

Author

Listed:
  • Liao, Shujie
  • Wang, Fengxia
  • Wu, Ting
  • Pan, Wei

Abstract

With the development of economics, oil has an important influence on social stability. The key challenge for oil import is steady supply. However, in this article, we do not focus on this aspect but the fluctuation of crude oil price when emergency and release of strategic petroleum reserves occur. It is a very complex research in real-life environment. In this situation, case analysis is the best tool for solving this problem. Our model is formulated in such a way as to simultaneously consider new oil price breakpoints, different emergency and so on. For solving the problem, a new programming is developed. Finally, an analysis is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The results show: (1) Natural disasters have less influences on crude oil price than social conflicts. As the impact of Hurricane Katrina is 3.27, less than 4.044 of Libyan conflict, and the subsequent influence is also limited, 5 days less than 8 days of the conflict. (2) Releases of strategic petroleum reserves are effective for the reliefs of oil price fluctuations caused by emergencies, respectively 41.05, 6.48 and 5, presenting a weakening trend of stabilizing role.

Suggested Citation

  • Liao, Shujie & Wang, Fengxia & Wu, Ting & Pan, Wei, 2016. "Crude oil price decision under considering emergency and release of strategic petroleum reserves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 436-443.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:102:y:2016:i:c:p:436-443
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.02.043
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421630086X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.02.043?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Say, Nuriye Peker & Yucel, Muzaffer, 2006. "Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Turkey: Empirical analysis and future projection based on an economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3870-3876, December.
    2. Azadeh, A. & Tarverdian, S., 2007. "Integration of genetic algorithm, computer simulation and design of experiments for forecasting electrical energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5229-5241, October.
    3. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2014. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements With Oil-Sensitive Stocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 830-844, April.
    4. Aydin, Gokhan, 2014. "Modeling of energy consumption based on economic and demographic factors: The case of Turkey with projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 382-389.
    5. Utgikar, V.P. & Scott, J.P., 2006. "Energy forecasting: Predictions, reality and analysis of causes of error," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3087-3092, November.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Nuo & Kasimov, Ikboljon & Wang, Yanan, 2022. "Unlocking private investment as a new determinant of green finance for renewable development in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1121-1130.
    2. Tan, Hua & Iqbal, Nadeem & Wu, Zhengzhong, 2022. "Evaluating the impact of stakeholder engagement for renewable energy sources and economic growth for CO2 emission," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 999-1007.
    3. Liu, Zhen & Tang, Yuk Ming & Chau, Ka Yin & Chien, Fengsheng & Iqbal, Wasim & Sadiq, Muhammad, 2021. "Incorporating strategic petroleum reserve and welfare losses: A way forward for the policy development of crude oil resources in South Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Li, Tianxiao & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2021. "Optimal scale of natural gas reserves in China under increasing and fluctuating demand: A quantitative analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Ali Raza & Maryam Khokhar & Reyna Esperanza Zea Gordillo & Faisal Ejaz & Tahir Saeed Jagirani & Fodor Zita Júlia & Md Billal Hossain, 2024. "Economic Gains and Losses for Sustainable Policy Development of Crude Oil Resources: A Historical Perspective of Indian Subcontinent," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 642-655, March.
    6. Yang, Jianfeng & Zhang, Bo & Chen, Liangchao & Diao, Xu & Hu, Yuanhao & Suo, Guanyu & Li, Ru & Wang, Qianlin & Li, Jinghai & Zhang, Jianwen & Dou, Zhan, 2023. "Improved solid radiation model for thermal response in large crude oil tanks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    7. Liu, Yang & Dilanchiev, Azer & Xu, Kaifei & Hajiyeva, Aytan Merdan, 2022. "Financing SMEs and business development as new post Covid-19 economic recovery determinants," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 554-567.
    8. Huang, Weiting & He, Jia, 2023. "Impact of energy intensity, green economy, and natural resources development to achieve sustainable economic growth in Asian countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Aiman Fadil & Paul Davis & John Geraghty, 2023. "A Mixed-Method Approach to Determine the Successful Factors Affecting the Criticality Level of Intermediate and Final Products on National Basis: A Case Study from Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-29, March.
    10. Gao, Dan & Li, Zheng & Liu, Pei & Zhao, Jiazhu & Zhang, Yuning & Li, Canbing, 2018. "A coordinated energy security model taking strategic petroleum reserve and alternative fuels into consideration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 171-181.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Bulut, Ümit & Sualp, M. Nedim, 2016. "How did the US economy react to shale gas production revolution? An advanced time series approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 963-977.
    2. Golberg, Alexander, 2015. "Environmental exergonomics for sustainable design and analysis of energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 314-321.
    3. Azimi, Seyyed Shahabeddin & Namazi, Mohammad Hosain, 2015. "Modeling of combustion of gas oil and natural gas in a furnace: Comparison of combustion characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 458-465.
    4. Jin, Jingliang & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng & Qian, Shuqu & Zhang, Mingming, 2016. "Dispatching strategies for coordinating environmental awareness and risk perception in wind power integrated system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 453-463.
    5. Ali, E.S. & Abd Elazim, S.M. & Abdelaziz, A.Y., 2016. "Ant Lion Optimization Algorithm for Renewable Distributed Generations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 445-458.
    6. Aydin, Gokhan, 2014. "Modeling of energy consumption based on economic and demographic factors: The case of Turkey with projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 382-389.
    7. Qiao, Weibiao & Liu, Wei & Liu, Enbin, 2021. "A combination model based on wavelet transform for predicting the difference between monthly natural gas production and consumption of U.S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    8. You, Junyu & Ampomah, William & Sun, Qian, 2020. "Co-optimizing water-alternating-carbon dioxide injection projects using a machine learning assisted computational framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    9. Li, Fengyun & Zheng, Haofeng & Li, Xingmei & Yang, Fei, 2021. "Day-ahead city natural gas load forecasting based on decomposition-fusion technique and diversified ensemble learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    10. Miaomiao Tao & Pierre Failler & Lim Thye Goh & Wee Yeap Lau & Hanghang Dong & Liang Xie, 2022. "Quantify the Effect of China’s Emission Trading Scheme on Low-carbon Eco-efficiency: Evidence from China’s 283 Cities," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-33, August.
    11. Xu, Mengmeng & Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Siquan, 2021. "Towards energy conservation by improving energy efficiency? Evidence from China’s metallurgical industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Sun, Wantong & Wei, Na & Zhao, Jinzhou & Kvamme, Bjørn & Zhou, Shouwei & Zhang, Liehui & Almenningen, Stian & Kuznetsova, Tatiana & Ersland, Geir & Li, Qingping & Pei, Jun & Li, Cong & Xiong, Chenyang, 2022. "Imitating possible consequences of drilling through marine hydrate reservoir," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    13. Atherton, John & Xie, Wanni & Aditya, Leonardus Kevin & Zhou, Xiaochi & Karmakar, Gourab & Akroyd, Jethro & Mosbach, Sebastian & Lim, Mei Qi & Kraft, Markus, 2021. "How does a carbon tax affect Britain’s power generation composition?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    14. Kang, Jia-Ning & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liu, Lan-cui & Yu, Bi-Ying & Liao, Hua, 2021. "A social learning approach to carbon capture and storage demonstration project management: An empirical analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    15. Lan, Wenjian & Wang, Hanxiang & Liu, Qihu & Zhang, Xin & Chen, Jingkai & Li, Ziling & Feng, Kun & Chen, Shengshan, 2021. "Investigation on the microwave heating technology for coalbed methane recovery," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    16. Abdelaziz, A.Y. & Ali, E.S. & Abd Elazim, S.M., 2016. "Implementation of flower pollination algorithm for solving economic load dispatch and combined economic emission dispatch problems in power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 506-518.
    17. Rafiee, A. & Dias, E. & Koomen, E., 2019. "Analysing the impact of spatial context on the heat consumption of individual households," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 461-470.
    18. Zhou, Yinbo & Li, Hansheng & Huang, Jilei & Zhang, Ruilin & Wang, Shijie & Hong, Yidu & Yang, Yongliang, 2021. "Influence of coal deformation on the Knudsen number of gas flow in coal seams," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    19. Akdi, Yılmaz & Gölveren, Elif & Okkaoğlu, Yasin, 2020. "Daily electrical energy consumption: Periodicity, harmonic regression method and forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Jin, Jingliang & Zhou, Peng & Zhang, Mingming & Yu, Xianyu & Din, Hao, 2018. "Balancing low-carbon power dispatching strategy for wind power integrated system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 914-924.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:102:y:2016:i:c:p:436-443. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.