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Robust resource adequacy planning in the face of coal retirements

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  • Lueken, Roger
  • Apt, Jay
  • Sowell, Fallaw

Abstract

We investigate the resource adequacy requirements of the PJM Interconnection, and the sensitivity of capacity procurement decisions to the choice of reliability metric used to measure resource adequacy. Assuming that plants fail independently, we find that PJM's 2010 reserve margin of 20.5% was sufficient to achieve the stated reliability standard of one loss of load event per ten years, with 0.012 expected loss of load events per year. PJM could reduce reserve margins to 13% and still achieve adequate levels of reliability as measured by the 2.4 Loss of Load Hours metric and the 0.001% Unserved Energy metric, which are used by other U.S. and international systems. A reserve margin of 13–15% would minimize long-run system costs. Reducing reserve margins from 20.5% to 13% in 2010 would have reduced PJM's capacity procurement by 11GW, the same amount of coal capacity that PJM has identified as at high risk of retirement. We also investigate the risk posed by correlated failures among generators, a risk traditionally not modeled by system planners. We illustrate that three types of correlated failures may increase outage risks: natural gas supply disruptions, reduced reliability among generators during winter months, and the simultaneous shutdown of multiple nuclear generators for regulatory reasons.

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  • Lueken, Roger & Apt, Jay & Sowell, Fallaw, 2016. "Robust resource adequacy planning in the face of coal retirements," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 371-388.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:88:y:2016:i:c:p:371-388
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Murphy, Sinnott & Sowell, Fallaw & Apt, Jay, 2019. "A time-dependent model of generator failures and recoveries captures correlated events and quantifies temperature dependence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
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    4. Francisco Ralston Fonseca & Paulina Jaramillo & Mario Bergés & Edson Severnini, 2019. "Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 435-451, June.
    5. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2018. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 27, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    6. Murphy, Sinnott & Apt, Jay & Moura, John & Sowell, Fallaw, 2018. "Resource adequacy risks to the bulk power system in North America," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1360-1376.
    7. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2019. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1059-1078.

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