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Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly available data

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  • Elwell, Clifford A.
  • Biddulph, Phillip
  • Lowe, Robert
  • Oreszczyn, Tadj

Abstract

This paper presents a novel method to analyse policy performance, using the example of legislation in the UK to require domestic boilers fitted since 1 April 2005 to be condensing. A technological uptake model based on the logistic equation is combined with four physical and economic models; Bayesian techniques are used for data analysis. Projections of energy savings are presented and the impact of different policy implementation dates investigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Elwell, Clifford A. & Biddulph, Phillip & Lowe, Robert & Oreszczyn, Tadj, 2015. "Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly available data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 770-783.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:770-783
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.020
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    Cited by:

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    3. Eissa, M.M., 2019. "Developing incentive demand response with commercial energy management system (CEMS) based on diffusion model, smart meters and new communication protocol," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 273-292.
    4. Broad, Oliver & Hawker, Graeme & Dodds, Paul E., 2020. "Decarbonising the UK residential sector: The dependence of national abatement on flexible and local views of the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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