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Time variation in European carbon pass-through rates in electricity futures prices

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  • Huisman, Ronald
  • Kiliç, Mehtap

Abstract

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is a means to price emission allowances. Electricity market prices should reflect these market prices of emission allowances as they are a cost factor for power producers. The pass-through rate is the fraction of the emission allowance price that is passed through to electricity market prices. It is often measured and presented as an average or a fixed estimate over some time period. However, we expect that the pass-through rates should actually vary over time as electricity supply curves reflect the marginal costs of different producers that differ in emission intensity. We apply a Kalman Filter approach to observe pass-through rates in Germany and U.K. and find strong support for time varying instead of fixed pass-through rates. Although policy makers are interested in the impact of a policy on average, our results indicate that one needs to be careful with the time-frame over which pass-through rates are measured for policy evaluation, as an incorrect chosen evaluation period could cause an under- or overestimation of the pass-through rate. In addition, our model helps to provide policy makers with insight in the development of pass-through rates when market circumstances change with respect to power production.

Suggested Citation

  • Huisman, Ronald & Kiliç, Mehtap, 2015. "Time variation in European carbon pass-through rates in electricity futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 239-249.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:239-249
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.07.005
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    Cited by:

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    3. Chang, Kai & Ye, Zhifang & Wang, Weihong, 2019. "Volatility spillover effect and dynamic correlation between regional emissions allowances and fossil energy markets: New evidence from China’s emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1314-1324.
    4. Andrianesis, Panagiotis & Biskas, Pandelis & Liberopoulos, George, 2021. "Evaluating the cost of emissions in a pool-based electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    5. Zhang, Yue & Farnoosh, Arash, 2019. "Analyzing the dynamic impact of electricity futures on revenue and risk of renewable energy in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 678-690.
    6. Zhu, Bangzhu & Han, Dong & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Dynamic multiscale interactions between European carbon and electricity markets during 2005–2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 309-322.
    7. Chang, Kai & Ge, Fangping & Zhang, Chao & Wang, Weihong, 2018. "The dynamic linkage effect between energy and emissions allowances price for regional emissions trading scheme pilots in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-425.
    8. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    9. Li, Yanan & Lin, Jun & Qian, Yanjun & Li, Dehong, 2023. "Feed-in tariff policy for biomass power generation: Incorporating the feedstock acquisition process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1113-1132.

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