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Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

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  • Daly, Hannah E.
  • Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

Abstract

In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2012. "Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 172-183.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:51:y:2012:i:c:p:172-183
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.066
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    3. Calnan, P. & Deane, J.P. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2013. "Modelling the impact of EVs on electricity generation, costs and CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 230-237.
    4. Travesset-Baro, Oriol & Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó. & Jover, Eric & Rosas-Casals, Marti, 2016. "Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 78-92.
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