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Assessment Of Transport Policies Toward Future Emission Targets: A Backcasting Approach For Stockholm 2030

Author

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  • MARKUS ROBÈRT

    (Department of Urban Studies, Royal Institute of Technology, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • R. DANIEL JONSSON

    (Department of Transport and Economics, Royal Institute of Technology, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract

Stockholm has set a target for greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2030, based on the United Nation's (IPCC) recommendations for an acceptableCO2level in the atmosphere. In this study we use a backcasting framework to analyze a range of specific transport policies and fuel technology related developments with respect to the emission target. Our study employs a transport modelling system, traditionally used for forecasts, to quantify the impacts of various travel demand measures (TDM). Our study shows that the change in travel demand, induced by various travel policies, will not suffice on its own to reach the target. Even if fuel price is tripled, a substantial share of renewable fuels is required for target achievement. While our study shows that travel demand measures have a fairly small effect onCO2emissions, it also hints at other compelling reasons for introducing such measures. Constructive strategies for the transport system would not only contribute to reduce risks with climate change. Even small reductions of transport volumes might imply large socio economic savings in traffic related costs, reduced emissions of substances with health impacts, fewer accidents, shorter travel times and higher travel time reliability. These aspects are arguably all part of a sustainable transport development.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Robèrt & R. Daniel Jonsson, 2006. "Assessment Of Transport Policies Toward Future Emission Targets: A Backcasting Approach For Stockholm 2030," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 451-478.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jeapmx:v:08:y:2006:i:04:n:s1464333206002578
    DOI: 10.1142/S1464333206002578
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Banister, David, 2017. "Participatory visioning in transport backcasting studies: Methodological lessons from Andalusia (Spain)," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 113-126.
    2. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Banister, David, 2017. "Dynamic participation processes for policy packaging in transport backcasting studies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-30.
    3. Helena Sustar & Miloš N. Mladenović & Moshe Givoni, 2020. "The Landscape of Envisioning and Speculative Design Methods for Sustainable Mobility Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Lindfeldt, Erik G. & Saxe, Maria & Magnusson, Mimmi & Mohseni, Farzad, 2010. "Strategies for a road transport system based on renewable resources - The case of an import-independent Sweden in 2025," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1836-1845, June.
    5. Francisco Candel‐Sánchez & Juan Perote‐Peña, 2020. "Optimal Incentives on Multiple Prosocial Activities when Reputation Matters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(3), pages 1207-1230, July.
    6. Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2012. "Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 172-183.
    7. Nayel Urena Serulle & Cinzia Cirillo, 2016. "Transportation needs of low income population: a policy analysis for the Washington D.C. metropolitan region," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 103-123, March.
    8. de Grange, Louis & Troncoso, Rodrigo & González, Felipe, 2012. "An empirical evaluation of the impact of three urban transportation policies on transit use," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 11-19.
    9. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Banister, David, 2018. "Evaluating the impacts of transport backcasting scenarios with multi-criteria analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 26-37.
    10. Olsson, Linda & Hjalmarsson, Linnea & Wikström, Martina & Larsson, Mårten, 2015. "Bridging the implementation gap: Combining backcasting and policy analysis to study renewable energy in urban road transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 72-82.

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