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Carbon value dynamics for France: A key driver to support mitigation pledges at country scale

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  • Assoumou, Edi
  • Maïzi, Nadia

Abstract

The climate agenda in France and several other countries is a complex combination of unilateral commitments with regional and international objectives. When analyzing national policies, the findings of worldwide analyses are of limited accuracy and the large aggregates on which they are built level out most local specificities and inertia. Specific assessments are hence needed. This paper quantifies the dynamic evolution of carbon values for French climate and energy policy. Its time dependency over successive periods and the effects of setting intermediate targets are evaluated using a long-term optimization model. Addressing critical issues for France, we produce consistent energy, emissions and carbon value estimates with a 5-year time step. Our results are situated above the upper range of carbon value estimates of world models with an overlapping zone. We show that the official policy guideline value is only consistent with an optimistic combination of assumptions. The central estimates are 4 times greater than the guideline carbon value for 2050 and up to 14 times greater in 2020 because of short-term inertia that are costly to move. We also find that with intermediate objectives, the carbon value's dynamic is more than a simple upward curve and that its variability is itself time dependent.

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  • Assoumou, Edi & Maïzi, Nadia, 2011. "Carbon value dynamics for France: A key driver to support mitigation pledges at country scale," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4325-4336, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:7:p:4325-4336
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    8. Hickey, Conor & Deane, Paul & McInerney, Celine & Ó Gallachóir, Brian, 2019. "Is there a future for the gas network in a low carbon energy system?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 480-493.
    9. Merkel, Erik & Fehrenbach, Daniel & McKenna, Russell & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "Modelling decentralised heat supply: An application and methodological extension in TIMES," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 592-605.
    10. Forsell, Nicklas & Guerassimoff, Gilles & Athanassiadis, Dimitris & Thivolle-Casat, Alain & Lorne, Daphné & Millet, Guy & Assoumou, Edi, 2013. "Sub-national TIMES model for analyzing future regional use of biomass and biofuels in Sweden and France," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 415-426.
    11. Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Lavigne, Denis & Rout, Ullash K. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling the impacts of challenging 2020 non-ETS GHG emissions reduction targets on Ireland′s energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1438-1452.
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    13. Hugues, Paul & Assoumou, Edi & Maizi, Nadia, 2016. "Assessing GHG mitigation and associated cost of French biofuel sector: Insights from a TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 288-300.

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