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Pricing derivatives with modeling CO emission allowance using a regime-switching jump diffusion model: with regime-switching risk premium

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  • Chang-Yi Li
  • Son-Nan Chen
  • Shih-Kuei Lin

Abstract

Carbon markets trade the spot European Union Allowance (EUA), with one EUA providing the right to emit one tone of carbon dioxide (CO2). We examine the spot EUA returns in BlueNext that exhibit jumps and a volatility clustering feature. We propose a regime-switching jump diffusion model (RSJM) with a hidden Markov chain to capture not only a volatility clustering feature, but also the dynamics of the spot EUA returns that are influenced by change in the CO2 emission economic conditions. In addition, the switching jump intensities of the RSJM are shown to be affected by change in the carbon-market macroeconomic environment. We further derive the theoretical futures-option prices with a constant convenience yield under the RSJM via the generalized Esscher transform where regime-switching risk is priced with a risk premium. The empirical study shows that the derived futures-option pricing model under the RSJM with regime-switching risk is a more complete model than a jump diffusion model for pricing CO2 options.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang-Yi Li & Son-Nan Chen & Shih-Kuei Lin, 2016. "Pricing derivatives with modeling CO emission allowance using a regime-switching jump diffusion model: with regime-switching risk premium," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 887-908, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:22:y:2016:i:10:p:887-908
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2015.1050526
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lei Su & Wenjiao Yu & Zhongxuan Zhou, 2023. "Global Trends of Carbon Finance: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Hsu, Yuan-Lin & Lin, Shih-Kuei & Hung, Ming-Chin & Huang, Tzu-Hui, 2016. "Empirical analysis of stock indices under a regime-switching model with dependent jump size risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 260-275.
    4. E. Savku & G.-W Weber, 2022. "Stochastic differential games for optimal investment problems in a Markov regime-switching jump-diffusion market," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(2), pages 1171-1196, May.
    5. Yanping Liu & Bo Yan, 2024. "Spillover effects of carbon, energy, and stock markets considering economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(3), pages 563-591, September.
    6. Yue Qi & Yue Wang, 2023. "Innovating and Pricing Carbon-Offset Options of Asian Styles on the Basis of Jump Diffusions and Fractal Brownian Motions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Huang, Yumeng & Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2021. "A hybrid model for carbon price forecastingusing GARCH and long short-term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).

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