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Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve

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  • Gallagher, Brian

Abstract

A logistic function is used to characterize peak and ultimate production of global crude oil and petroleum-derived liquid fuels. Annual oil production data were incrementally summed to construct a logistic curve in its initial phase. Using a curve-fitting approach, a population-growth logistic function was applied to complete the cumulative production curve. The simulated curve was then deconstructed into a set of annual oil production data producing an "idealized" Hubbert curve. An idealized Hubbert curve (IHC) is defined as having properties of production data resulting from a constant growth-rate under fixed resource limits. An IHC represents a potential production curve constructed from cumulative production data and provides a new perspective for estimating peak production periods and remaining resources. The IHC model data show that idealized peak oil production occurred in 2009 at 83.2Â Mb/d (30.4Â Gb/y). IHC simulations of truncated historical oil production data produced similar results and indicate that this methodology can be useful as a prediction tool.

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  • Gallagher, Brian, 2011. "Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 790-802, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:2:p:790-802
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
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    3. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Martina, Esteban & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos, 2012. "Cyclical behavior of crude oil markets and economic recessions in the period 1986–2010," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 47-58.
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