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Russian Natural Gas Exports to Europe: Effects of Russian Gas Market Reforms and the Rising Market Power of Gazprom

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  • Eirik Lund Sagen
  • Marina Tsygankova

Abstract

Gazprom, the dominant gas company in Russia, is widely believed to be the key supplier of gas to Europe in the foreseeable future. However, there are numerous uncertainties and challenges within the Russian and European gas industry that may alter the allocation of Gazprom´s gas sales between domestic and export markets. In this paper we use both theoretical and numerical models to study potential effects on Russian gas exports from changes in Russian domestic gas prices and the production capacities in 2015. We also investigate whether the liberalization of the European gas markets may provide incentives for Gazprom to induce monopoly power in its export markets. Our main findings suggest that both increased domestic gas prices and sufficient production capacities are vital to maintain Gazprom´s market share in Europe over the next decade. At low domestic prices, Gazprom may even have difficulties to carry out its long-term export commitments. However, if export possibilities are ample due to both lower domestic demand at higher prices and high overall production capacities, a large share of spot trades in Europe may encourage Gazprom to exercise market power in its export markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Eirik Lund Sagen & Marina Tsygankova, 2006. "Russian Natural Gas Exports to Europe: Effects of Russian Gas Market Reforms and the Rising Market Power of Gazprom," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 597, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp597
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2006. "L'interdépendance gazière de la Russie et de l'Union européenne : quel équilibre entre le marché et la géopolitique ?," Post-Print halshs-00119602, HAL.
    2. Marina Tsygankova, 2007. "The Export of Russian Gas to Europe: Breaking Up the Monopoly of Gazprom," Energy and Environmental Modeling 2007 24000062, EcoMod.
    3. Marina Tsygankova, 2007. "The export of Russian gas to Europe: breaking up the monopoly of Gazprom," Discussion Papers 494, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. repec:bla:opecrv:v:32:y:2008:i:3:p:246-264 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Spanjer, Aldo, 2007. "Russian gas price reform and the EU-Russia gas relationship: Incentives, consequences and European security of supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2889-2898, May.
    6. Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-40.
    7. Catherine Locatelli, 2008. "Gazprom's export strategies under the institutional constraint of the Russian gas market," Post-Print halshs-00341660, HAL.
    8. Sadek Boussena & Catherine Locatelli, 2017. "Gazprom and the complexity of the EU gas market: a strategy to define," Post-Print hal-01618494, HAL.
    9. Boussena, S. & Locatelli, C., 2017. "Gazprom and the complexity of the EU gas market: A strategy to define," Working Papers 2017-09, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    10. Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2008. "Russian and European gas interdependence. Can market forces balance out geopolitics?," Post-Print halshs-00129618, HAL.
    11. Catherine Locatelli, 2007. "Les stratégies d'internationalisation de Gazprom, enjeu de la constitution d'une grande compagnie d'Etat russe," Post-Print halshs-00115377, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia; Natural gas; production capacity; export; Western Europe; price; numerical model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Monopoly
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

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