IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v177y2023ics0301421523001581.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating current effects of upcoming EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Evidence from China's futures market

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Boqiang
  • Zhao, Hengsong

Abstract

The European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU CBAM) has already generated concerns worldwide. In this study, we investigate the reactions of the energy-intensive industries to legislative announcement of the EU CBAM. We employ the event study method to empirically examine the existence of the green paradox based on the steel and aluminum data from China's futures market. The empirical results provide strong evidence of a significant decrease in returns for steel rebar and aluminum futures. However, there exists a stronger effect on aluminum futures than steel rebar due to the higher export intensity and carbon emission of aluminum products. Theoretically, the responses from energy-intensive industries appear to be driven by three potential channels (production, storage, and consumption), but our empirical results suggest that only producers respond to the EU CBAM event. Moreover, we also find that the CBAM event subsidized aluminum's carbon dioxide emissions by around 24 RMB per metric ton by quantifying the effect size of the event on the futures prices. We recommend that policymakers shorten the implementation lag of climate policies and limit the potential for new production capacity to be added.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Boqiang & Zhao, Hengsong, 2023. "Evaluating current effects of upcoming EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Evidence from China's futures market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:177:y:2023:i:c:s0301421523001581
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421523001581
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113573?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van der Meijden, Gerard & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2015. "International capital markets, oil producers and the Green Paradox," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 275-297.
    2. Overland, Indra & Sabyrbekov, Rahat, 2022. "Know your opponent: Which countries might fight the European carbon border adjustment mechanism?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. van der Meijden, Gerard & Ryszka, Karolina & Withagen, Cees, 2018. "Double limit pricing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 153-167.
    4. Smulders, Sjak & Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 2012. "Announcing climate policy: Can a green paradox arise without scarcity?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 364-376.
    5. Lin, Boqiang & Zhu, Junpeng, 2019. "Fiscal spending and green economic growth: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 264-271.
    6. Bao, Qin & Tang, Ling & Zhang, ZhongXiang & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Impacts of border carbon adjustments on China's sectoral emissions: Simulations with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 77-94.
    7. Thomas Eichner & Rüdiger Pethig, 2011. "Carbon Leakage, The Green Paradox, And Perfect Future Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(3), pages 767-805, August.
    8. Di Maria, Corrado & Lange, Ian & van der Werf, Edwin, 2014. "Should we be worried about the green paradox? Announcement effects of the Acid Rain Program," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 143-162.
    9. Derek Lemoine, 2017. "Green Expectations: Current Effects of Anticipated Carbon Pricing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 499-513, July.
    10. Perdana, Sigit & Vielle, Marc, 2022. "Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    11. Michael Hoel, 2011. "The Supply Side of CO 2 with Country Heterogeneity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(4), pages 846-865, December.
    12. Hendrik Ritter & Mark Schopf, 2014. "Unilateral Climate Policy: Harmful or Even Disastrous?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 155-178, May.
    13. Cairns, Robert D., 2014. "The green paradox of the economics of exhaustible resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 78-85.
    14. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(4), pages 360-394, August.
    15. Di Maria, Corrado & Smulders, Sjak & van der Werf, Edwin, 2012. "Absolute abundance and relative scarcity: Environmental policy with implementation lags," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 104-119.
    16. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "Is there really a green paradox?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 342-363.
    17. Li, Jianglong & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Inter-factor/inter-fuel substitution, carbon intensity, and energy-related CO2 reduction: Empirical evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 483-494.
    18. Li, Shupeng & Niu, Liping & Yue, Qiang & Zhang, Tingan, 2022. "Trajectory, driving forces, and mitigation potential of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's primary aluminum industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    19. Helm, Carsten & Schmidt, Robert C., 2015. "Climate cooperation with technology investments and border carbon adjustment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 112-130.
    20. Li, Aijun & Zhang, Aizhen, 2012. "Will carbon motivated border tax adjustments function as a threat?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 81-90.
    21. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2022. "The growth of oil futures in China: Evidence of market maturity through global crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    22. Karolina Ryszka & Cees Withagen, 2016. "Unilateral Climate Policies: Incentives and Effects," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(2), pages 471-504, February.
    23. Schinko, Thomas & Bednar-Friedl, Birgit & Steininger, Karl W. & Grossmann, Wolf D., 2014. "Switching to carbon-free production processes: Implications for carbon leakage and border carbon adjustment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 818-831.
    24. van der Werf, Edwin & Di Maria, Corrado, 2012. "Imperfect Environmental Policy and Polluting Emissions: The Green Paradox and Beyond," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 153-194, March.
    25. Kuik, Onno & Hofkes, Marjan, 2010. "Border adjustment for European emissions trading: Competitiveness and carbon leakage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1741-1748, April.
    26. Fischer, Carolyn & Fox, Alan K., 2012. "Comparing policies to combat emissions leakage: Border carbon adjustments versus rebates," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 199-216.
    27. Zhong, Jiarui & Pei, Jiansuo, 2022. "Beggar thy neighbor? On the competitiveness and welfare impacts of the EU's proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    28. Antimiani, Alessandro & Costantini, Valeria & Kuik, Onno & Paglialunga, Elena, 2016. "Mitigation of adverse effects on competitiveness and leakage of unilateral EU climate policy: An assessment of policy instruments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 246-259.
    29. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2021. "Do China's macro-financial factors determine the Shanghai crude oil futures market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jingzhi Zhu & Yuhuan Zhao & Lu Zheng, 2024. "The Impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s Exports to the EU," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-18, January.
    2. Antoine Ebeling, 2024. "ECB’s Climate Speeches and Market Reactions," Working Papers of BETA 2024-38, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Li, Wei & Liu, Xing & Lu, Can, 2023. "Analysis of China's steel response ways to EU CBAM policy based on embodied carbon intensity prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johannes Pfeiffer, 2017. "Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77.
    2. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2021. "(Bio-)Fuel mandating and the green paradox," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Kollenbach, Gilbert & Schopf, Mark, 2022. "Unilaterally optimal climate policy and the green paradox," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Marie-Catherine Riekhof & Johannes Bröcker, 2017. "Does The Adverse Announcement Effect Of Climate Policy Matter? — A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-34, May.
    5. Nachtigall, Daniel & Rübbelke, Dirk, 2016. "The green paradox and learning-by-doing in the renewable energy sector," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 74-92.
    6. Akkaya Sahin & Bakkal Ufuk, 2020. "Carbon Leakage Along with the Green Paradox Against Carbon Abatement? A Review Based on Carbon Tax," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, June.
    7. Marz, Waldemar & Pfeiffer, Johannes, 2020. "Petrodollar recycling, oil monopoly, and carbon taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Christian Beermann, 2015. "Climate Policy and the Intertemporal Supply of Fossil Resources," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 62.
    9. Jus Darko & Meier Volker, 2015. "Announcing is Bad, Delaying is Worse: Another Pitfall in Well-intended Climate Policy," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(3), pages 286-297, June.
    10. Najm, Sarah, 2019. "The green paradox and budgetary institutions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Fischer, Carolyn & Salant, Stephen W., 2017. "Balancing the carbon budget for oil: The distributive effects of alternative policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 191-215.
    12. Najm, Sarah & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2020. "Does renewable energy substitute LNG international trade in the energy transition?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    13. Di Maria, Corrado & Lange, Ian & van der Werf, Edwin, 2014. "Should we be worried about the green paradox? Announcement effects of the Acid Rain Program," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 143-162.
    14. van der Werf, Edwin & Di Maria, Corrado, 2012. "Imperfect Environmental Policy and Polluting Emissions: The Green Paradox and Beyond," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 153-194, March.
    15. Malik Curuk & Suphi Sen, 2015. "Oil Trade and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 5285, CESifo.
    16. Thomas Michielsen, 2013. "Brown Backstops Versus the Green Paradox," OxCarre Working Papers 108, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. Zhang, Kun & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the green paradox in China: From the perspective of fiscal decentralization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 203-211.
    18. Hou, Xiang & Hu, Qianlin & Liang, Xin & Xu, Jingxuan, 2023. "How do low-carbon city pilots affect carbon emissions? Staggered difference in difference evidence from Chinese firms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 664-686.
    19. Espinola-Arredondo, Ana & Muñoz-García, Félix & Duah, Isaac, 2019. "Anticipatory effects of taxation in the commons: When do taxes work, and when do they fail?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Seo, Seongmin & Park, Sang Soo, 2024. "Entry regulations with implementation lag: Evidence from convenience store markets in Korea," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:177:y:2023:i:c:s0301421523001581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.