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CO2 fleet regulation and the future market diffusion of zero-emission trucks in Europe

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  • Breed, Annelis K.
  • Speth, Daniel
  • Plötz, Patrick

Abstract

Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles and has recently been extended to heavy-duty vehicles. In Europe, truck manufacturers are required to reduce the CO2 emissions of newly sold vehicles by 30% until 2030 compared to 2019/2020. Accordingly, several manufacturers have announced the introduction of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) such as battery electric or fuel cell trucks. However, the sales shares of zero emission trucks to meet the targets have not been analyzed in the literature yet. Here, we derive sales share scenarios for zero emission trucks in Europe based on emissions reduction options and their associated costs. We find that manufacturers will require at least 4–22% of their newly sold heavy-duty vehicles to be zero emission in 2030, depending on their strategy to improve their diesel trucks. This implies a stock share of 2–11% for ZEV trucks in Europe in 2030. Yet, high sales shares for ZEVs and the super credits granted by the regulation allow manufacturers to meet their target with little CO2 reduction in the conventional fleet leading to low actual emission reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Breed, Annelis K. & Speth, Daniel & Plötz, Patrick, 2021. "CO2 fleet regulation and the future market diffusion of zero-emission trucks in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:159:y:2021:i:c:s030142152100505x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112640
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Jochem, Patrick & Yilmaz, Hasan Ümitcan & Kaschub, Thomas, 2019. "Impact of electric trucks powered by overhead lines on the European electricity system and CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-40.
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    3. Fritz, Markus & Plötz, Patrick & Funke, Simon A., 2019. "The impact of ambitious fuel economy standards on the market uptake of electric vehicles and specific CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Cong, Rong-Gang & Caro, Dario & Thomsen, Marianne, 2017. "Is it beneficial to use biogas in the Danish transport sector?–An environmental-economic analysis," MPRA Paper 112291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    2. Teng, Fei & Zhang, Qi & Chen, Siyuan & Wang, Ge & Huang, Zhenyue & Wang, Lu, 2024. "Comprehensive effects of policy mixes on the diffusion of heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks in China considering technology learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. Li, Chao & Yi, Yongxi & Zhang, Aoxiang & Chen, Biao, 2023. "Fuel consumption-reduction investment decisions and coordination contracts in fuel vehicle supply chains: A dynamic analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Jakob Schneider & Olaf Teichert & Maximilian Zähringer & Korbinian Götz & Markus Lienkamp, 2023. "Spoilt for Choice: User-Centric Choice of Battery Size and Chemistry for Battery-Electric Long-Haul Trucks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Remzi Can Samsun & Michael Rex & Laurent Antoni & Detlef Stolten, 2022. "Deployment of Fuel Cell Vehicles and Hydrogen Refueling Station Infrastructure: A Global Overview and Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-34, July.
    6. Ovaere, Marten & Proost, Stef, 2022. "Cost-effective reduction of fossil energy use in the European transport sector: An assessment of the Fit for 55 Package," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

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