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Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets: a comprehensive framework

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  • Niklas Höhne
  • Hanna Fekete
  • Michel G.J. den Elzen
  • Andries F. Hof
  • Takeshi Kuramochi

Abstract

One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual assessment approach. We recommend that such a comprehensive ambition assessment framework, employing a large variety of approaches, is used in the future to capture a wide spectrum of perspectives on ambition.POLICY RELEVANCEAssessing the ambition of the national climate proposals is particularly important as the Paris Agreement asks for regular reviews of national contributions, keeping in mind that countries raise their ambition over time. Such an assessment will be an important part of the regular global stocktake that will take place every five years, starting with a ‘light’ version in 2018. However, comprehensive methods to assess the proposals are lacking. This article provides such a comprehensive assessment framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas Höhne & Hanna Fekete & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Andries F. Hof & Takeshi Kuramochi, 2018. "Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets: a comprehensive framework," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 425-441, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:18:y:2018:i:4:p:425-441
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1294046
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    Cited by:

    1. Chul-Ho Kim & Seung-Eon Lee & Kwang-Ho Lee & Kang-Soo Kim, 2019. "Detailed Comparison of the Operational Characteristics of Energy-Conserving HVAC Systems during the Cooling Season," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-29, October.
    2. Ceecee Holz & Guy Cunliffe & Kennedy Mbeva & Pieter W. Pauw & Harald Winkler, 2023. "Tempering and enabling ambition: how equity is considered in domestic processes preparing NDCs," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, September.
    3. D'Adamo, Idiano & Falcone, Pasquale Marcello & Gastaldi, Massimo & Morone, Piergiuseppe, 2020. "RES-T trajectories and an integrated SWOT-AHP analysis for biomethane. Policy implications to support a green revolution in European transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. den Elzen, Michel & Kuramochi, Takeshi & Höhne, Niklas & Cantzler, Jasmin & Esmeijer, Kendall & Fekete, Hanna & Fransen, Taryn & Keramidas, Kimon & Roelfsema, Mark & Sha, Fu & van Soest, Heleen & Vand, 2019. "Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 238-250.
    5. Jenna Dodson & Patricia Dérer & Philip Cafaro & Frank Götmark, 2022. "Population growth, family planning and the Paris Agreement: an assessment of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs)," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 561-576, September.
    6. Dioha, Michael O. & Kumar, Atul, 2020. "Exploring the energy system impacts of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contributions and low-carbon transition to mid-century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Kuriyama, Akihisa & Tamura, Kentaro & Kuramochi, Takeshi, 2019. "Can Japan enhance its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets? Assessment of economic and energy-related assumptions in Japan's NDC," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 328-340.
    8. Zhao Yang, 2023. "The Impact of Green Finance on High-Quality Economic Development in China: Vertical Fiscal Imbalance as the Moderating Effect," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, June.
    9. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Kouvaritakis, Nikos, 2018. "Model-based analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and 2 °C pathways for major economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 965-978.
    10. Hamdy Abdelaty & Daniel Weiss & Delia Mangelkramer, 2023. "Climate Policy in Developing Countries: Analysis of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Measures in Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, June.

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