Long on promises, short on delivery? Insights from the first two years of onshore wind auctions in Germany

Renewable energy auctions have been lauded for bringing about price reductions. However, the methods applied in investigating such impacts have so far been inadequate and often do not allow conclusions to be drawn as to whether observed price reductions were caused by auctions or by other factors. We have analysed the outcomes of the first onshore wind auctions in Germany held in 2017 and 2018, taking into account the site-specific wind conditions and realisation deadlines of the successfully bid projects. Our results show that after a temporary reduction, prices exceeded both the initial levels and the transitional feed-in tariff. A lack of public acceptance and numerous legal complaints against building permissions have contributed to bids falling below auction volumes in 2018. These results are discussed against the backdrop of the functional and structural promises associated with the introduction of auctions, including reduced remuneration levels, better control of the pace of the capacity expansion and who is able to influence the setting of the remuneration levels.