IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v133y2019ics030142151930477x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Challenges and strategies for electricity market transition in China

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Jiang
  • Kahrl, Fredrich
  • Yuan, Jiahai
  • Liu, Xu
  • Zhang, Weirong

Abstract

China is currently pursuing electricity reforms that will create wholesale markets for electricity. Electricity markets hold considerable promise for facilitating China's transition to clean energy systems, but face obstacles. The most significant obstacle to market reforms is their potential financial impact on coal generation, which currently accounts for most of China's generating capacity. In this paper, we examine the impact of market reforms on coal generation in China, using Guangdong Province as a case study. We find that, in the near term, market prices are likely to lead to significant decreases in net revenues for coal generators relative to the current benchmark tariff, with 40%–60% of coal generation capacity unable to cover the cost of remaining in commercial operation. We estimate that existing coal generators in Guangdong had 94 billion yuan (US$14 billion) in outstanding debt in 2016, creating large risks for banks and raising questions about the potential impacts of electricity market reforms on China's financial industry. The impact of market reforms on coal generators creates two problems—transition and resource adequacy. The development of mechanisms for long-term resource adequacy provides a common solution to both of these problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Jiang & Kahrl, Fredrich & Yuan, Jiahai & Liu, Xu & Zhang, Weirong, 2019. "Challenges and strategies for electricity market transition in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:133:y:2019:i:c:s030142151930477x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110899
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151930477X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110899?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michaels, Robert J., 1994. "Unused and useless: The strange economics of stranded investment," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(8), pages 12-22, October.
    2. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Christopher R. Knittel & Catherine Wolfram, 2008. "Inefficiencies And Market Power In Financial Arbitrage: A Study Of California'S Electricity Markets," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 347-378, June.
    3. Brennan, Timothy J & Boyd, James, 1997. "Stranded Costs, Takings, and the Law and Economics of Implicit Constracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 41-54, January.
    4. Xu, Shaofeng & Chen, Wenying, 2006. "The reform of electricity power sector in the PR of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(16), pages 2455-2465, November.
    5. DeBenedictis, Andrew & Miller, David & Moore, Jack & Olson, Arne & Woo, C.K., 2011. "How Big Is the Risk Premium in an Electricity Forward Price? Evidence from the Pacific Northwest," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 72-76, April.
    6. Ma, Jinlong, 2011. "On-grid electricity tariffs in China: Development, reform and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2633-2645, May.
    7. Kahn, Edward, 1998. "Introducing competition to the electricity industry in Spain: the role of initial conditions," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 15-22, March.
    8. Peter Cramton & Steven Stoft, 2006. "The Convergence of Market Designs for Adequate Generating Capacity," Papers of Peter Cramton 06mdfra, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised 2006.
    9. Johnson, Todd M., 1992. "China's power industry, 1980–1990: Price reform and its effect on energy efficiency," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 17(11), pages 1085-1092.
    10. Woo, C.K & Lloyd, D & Karimov, R & Tishler, A, 2003. "Stranded cost recovery in electricity market reforms in the US," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-14.
    11. Black, Bernard S., 1994. "A proposal for implementing retail competition in the electricity industry," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(8), pages 58-72, October.
    12. Ma, Chunbo & He, Lining, 2008. "From state monopoly to renewable portfolio: Restructuring China's electric utility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1697-1711, May.
    13. Peter Cramton & Axel Ockenfels & Steven Stoft, 2013. "Capacity Market Fundamentals," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    14. Kahrl, Fredrich & Williams, Jim & Jianhua, Ding & Junfeng, Hu, 2011. "Challenges to China's transition to a low carbon electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4032-4041, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yaoyu & Wu, Chenye & Gu, Nan & Yu, Yang, 2022. "The robustness of low-carbon policies during China’s electricity reform," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Li, Tianyu & Gao, Ciwei & Chen, Tao & Jiang, Yu & Feng, Yingchun, 2022. "Medium and long-term electricity market trading strategy considering renewable portfolio standard in the transitional period of electricity market reform in Jiangsu, China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Li, Junjie, 2024. "Spatialized carbon-energy-water footprint of emerging coal chemical industry in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    4. Guo, Hongye & Davidson, Michael R. & Chen, Qixin & Zhang, Da & Jiang, Nan & Xia, Qing & Kang, Chongqing & Zhang, Xiliang, 2020. "Power market reform in China: Motivations, progress, and recommendations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Chen, Hao & Cui, Jian & Song, Feng & Jiang, Zhigao, 2022. "Evaluating the impacts of reforming and integrating China's electricity sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Wei, Xiaolin & Shang, Yunfeng, 2023. "Modernization of governance at Chinese universities: Role of fossil fuels and green energy resource," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    7. Deqin Lin & Wenyang Deng & Siting Dai, 2022. "A Margin Design Method Based on the SPAN in Electricity Futures Market Considering the Risk of Power Factor," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-14, July.
    8. Li, Junjie & Yan, Yulong & Wang, Yirong & Zhang, Yifu & Shao, Lianwei & Li, Menggang, 2024. "Spatial-successive transfer of virtual scarcity water along China's coal-based electric chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    9. Zhang, Pengfei & Ma, Chao & Lian, Jijian & Li, Peiyao & Liu, Lu, 2024. "Medium- and long-term operation optimization of the LCHES-WP hybrid power system considering the settlement rules of the electricity trading market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    10. Li, Bingkang & Zhao, Huiru & Wang, Xuejie & Zhao, Yihang & Zhang, Yuanyuan & Lu, Hao & Wang, Yuwei, 2022. "Distributionally robust offering strategy of the aggregator integrating renewable energy generator and energy storage considering uncertainty and connections between the mid-to-long-term and spot elec," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 400-417.
    11. Liu, Yang & Jiang, Zhigao & Guo, Bowei, 2022. "Assessing China’s provincial electricity spot market pilot operations: Lessons from Guangdong province," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    12. Hui Wang & Congcong Wang & Wenhui Zhao, 2022. "Decision on Mixed Trading between Medium- and Long-Term Markets and Spot Markets for Electricity Sales Companies under New Electricity Reform Policies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-23, December.
    13. Liu, Y. & Jiang, Z. & Guo, B., 2021. "Assessing China's Provincial Electricity Spot Market Pilot Operations: Lessons from the Guangdong Province," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2165, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Haonan Zhang & Xingping Zhang & Jiahai Yuan, 2020. "Coal power in China: A multi‐level perspective review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(6), November.
    15. Li, T. & Gao, C. & Pollitt, M. & Chen, T. & Ming H., 2022. "Measuring the effects of power system reform in Jiangsu province, China from the perspective of Social Cost Benefit Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2247, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Cui, Jian & Song, Feng & Jiang, Zhigao, 2023. "Efficiency vs. equity as China's national carbon market meets provincial electricity markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Zhu, Yanlei & Song, Yan & Yuan, Jiahai, 2021. "Structural distortion and the shortage of peak-load power resources in China: A screening curve approach and case study of Shandong Province," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    18. Wang, Yongli & Zhou, Minhan & Zhang, Fuli & Zhang, Yuli & Ma, Yuze & Dong, Huanran & Zhang, Danyang & Liu, Lin, 2021. "Chinese grid investment based on transmission and distribution tariff policy: An optimal coordination between capacity and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    19. Wang, Pengyu & Fang, Debin & Wang, Shuyi, 2022. "Optimal dynamic regulation in retail electricity market with consumer feedback and social learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    20. Li, Bo & Ma, Ziming & Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia & Lathem, Alex & Fedorova, Natalie & He, Gang & Zhong, Haiwang & Chen, Minyou & Kammen, Daniel M., 2021. "Modeling the impact of EVs in the Chinese power system: Pathways for implementing emissions reduction commitments in the power and transportation sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kahrl, Fredrich & Williams, James H. & Hu, Junfeng, 2013. "The political economy of electricity dispatch reform in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 361-369.
    2. Lin, Jiang & Kahrl, Fredrich & Yuan, Jiahai & Chen, Qixin & Liu, Xu, 2019. "Economic and carbon emission impacts of electricity market transition in China: A case study of Guangdong Province," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1093-1107.
    3. Kahrl, Fredrich & Williams, Jim & Jianhua, Ding & Junfeng, Hu, 2011. "Challenges to China's transition to a low carbon electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4032-4041, July.
    4. Teng, Fei & Wang, Xin & Zhiqiang, LV, 2014. "Introducing the emissions trading system to China’s electricity sector: Challenges and opportunities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 39-45.
    5. Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin, 2015. "Demand side management in China: The context of China’s power industry reform," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 954-965.
    6. Woo, C.K. & Cheng, Y.S. & Law, A. & Zarnikau, J. & Ho, S.T. & Leung, H.Y., 2015. "Consumer support for a public utilities commission in Hong Kong," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 87-97.
    7. Yuk-shing Cheng & Man-kit Chung & Kam-pui Tsang, 2023. "Electricity Market Reforms for Energy Transition: Lessons from China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, January.
    8. H. Qi & C. K. Woo & K. H. Cao & J. Zarnikau & R. Li, 2024. "Price responsiveness of solar and wind capacity demands," Post-Print hal-04597188, HAL.
    9. Peter Cramton, 2022. "Fostering Resiliency with Good Market Design: Lessons from Texas," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 145, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    10. Zhang, Yin-Fang & Gao, Ping, 2016. "Integrating environmental considerations into economic regulation of China's electricity sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 62-71.
    11. Tangerås, Thomas P., 2018. "Equilibrium supply security in a multinational electricity market with renewable production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 416-435.
    12. Simshauser, P., 2020. "Merchant utilities and boundaries of the firm: vertical integration in energy-only markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2039, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Tooraj Jamasb & Rabindra Nepal & Govinda Timilsina & Michael Toman, 2014. "Energy Sector Reform, Economic Efficiency and Poverty Reduction," Discussion Papers Series 529, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    14. Simshauser, P. & Gilmore, J., 2020. "Is the NEM broken? Policy discontinuity and the 2017-2020 investment megacycle," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2048, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Fabra, Natalia, 2018. "A primer on capacity mechanisms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 323-335.
    16. Simshauser, Paul, 2019. "Missing money, missing policy and Resource Adequacy in Australia's National Electricity Market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Levin, Todd & Botterud, Audun, 2015. "Electricity market design for generator revenue sufficiency with increased variable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 392-406.
    18. Zhang, Hao, 2019. "Antinomic policy-making under the fragmented authoritarianism: Regulating China’s electricity sector through the energy-climate-environment dimension," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 162-169.
    19. Chen, Zhongfei & Barros, Carlos Pestana & Borges, Maria Rosa, 2015. "A Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis of Chinese fossil-fuel electricity generation companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 136-144.
    20. Simshauser, Paul & Akimov, Alexandr, 2019. "Regulated electricity networks, investment mistakes in retrospect and stranded assets under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 117-133.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:133:y:2019:i:c:s030142151930477x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.