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Decarbonisation perspectives for the Polish economy

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  • Kiuila, Olga

Abstract

In the coming decades the energy sector in Poland will undergo a substantial transition towards low carbon usage, which will have a predominant impact on the economy. Several modernization scenarios for energy policy are currently being discussed by the government and not yet concluded. The main objective of this paper is to provide a tool that allows to simulate such scenarios and to show the impact of decarbonisation on the whole economy. We propose an intertemporal hybrid general equilibrium modeling that incorporates energy technologies (bottom-up approach) directly into a macroeconomic structure (top-down approach). By accounting for wide adjustments in the economy, while controlling for all major constraints, the model gives a unique and detailed insight into the future shape of the energy sector and prospects of low carbon economy in Poland. Our simulation results suggest that there are no free lunches. No realistic energy mix allows to achieve sustainable positive economic growth when considerable emission reduction is to be achieved. The price on CO2 will exceed EUR 100 for 30% emission reduction with respect to business-as-usual scenario. Gradual phase-out of coal requires focusing on biomass technology (the first best), nuclear and wind power (the second best).

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  • Kiuila, Olga, 2018. "Decarbonisation perspectives for the Polish economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 69-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:118:y:2018:i:c:p:69-76
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.03.048
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    Cited by:

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    2. Przemysław Kaszyński & Jacek Kamiński, 2020. "Coal Demand and Environmental Regulations: A Case Study of the Polish Power Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-24, March.
    3. Nieto, Jaime & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis J. & de Blas, Ignacio, 2020. "Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Grzegorz Lew & Beata Sadowska & Katarzyna Chudy-Laskowska & Grzegorz Zimon & Magdalena Wójcik-Jurkiewicz, 2021. "Influence of Photovoltaic Development on Decarbonization of Power Generation—Example of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    5. Bożena Gajdzik & Magdalena Jaciow & Radosław Wolniak & Robert Wolny & Wieslaw Wes Grebski, 2023. "Assessment of Energy and Heat Consumption Trends and Forecasting in the Small Consumer Sector in Poland Based on Historical Data," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-33, September.
    6. Sylwia Mrozowska & Jan A. Wendt & Krzysztof Tomaszewski, 2021. "The Challenges of Poland’s Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, December.
    7. Magdalena Wójcik-Jurkiewicz & Marzena Czarnecka & Grzegorz Kinelski & Beata Sadowska & Katarzyna Bilińska-Reformat, 2021. "Determinants of Decarbonisation in the Transformation of the Energy Sector: The Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, February.
    8. Maciej Ciołek & Izabela Emerling & Katarzyna Olejko & Beata Sadowska & Magdalena Wójcik-Jurkiewicz, 2022. "Assumptions of the Energy Policy of the Country versus Investment Outlays Related to the Purchase of Alternative Fuels: Poland as a Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, March.
    9. Baran, Jan & Szpor, Aleksander & Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan, 2020. "Low-carbon transition in a coal-producing country: A labour market perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Sivek, Martin & Jirásek, Jakub & Kavina, Pavel & Vojnarová, Markéta & Kurková, Tereza & Bašová, Andrea, 2020. "Divorce after hundreds of years of marriage: Prospects for coal mining in the Czech Republic with regard to the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks & Marek Antosiewicz & Andrzej Ceglarz & Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Jakub Sawulski & Aleksander Szpor & Baiba Witajewska-Baltvilka, 2018. "Risks associated with the decarbonisation of the Polish power sector," IBS Research Reports 05/2018, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    12. Iwona Markuszewska, 2021. "The Energy Landscape versus the Farming Landscape: The Immortal Era of Coal?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, October.
    13. Pramit Verma & Justyna Chodkowska‐Miszczuk & Agata Lewandowska & Łukasz Wiśniewski, 2023. "Local resilience for low‐carbon transition in Poland: Frameworks, conditions and opportunities for Central European countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 1278-1295, June.
    14. Witajewski-Baltvilks Jan & Boratyński Jakub, 2021. "Workers or Consumers: Who Pays for Low-Carbon Transition – Theoretical Analysis of Welfare Change in General Equilibrium Setting," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 231-245, January.
    15. Jan Frankowski & Joanna Mazurkiewicz & Jakub Sokolowski, 2021. "The coal phase-out and the labour market transition pathways: the case of Poland," IBS Working Papers 01/2021, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    16. Neofytou, H. & Nikas, A. & Doukas, H., 2020. "Sustainable energy transition readiness: A multicriteria assessment index," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    17. Kiuila Olga & Lewczuk Emilia, 2021. "Economic Dynamic Modelling of Climate Policy in Poland," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 246-255, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C68; D58; Q43; Q58; Computable general equilibrium modeling; Dynamics; Energy technologies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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