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Effect of major policy disruptions in energy system transition: Case Finland

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  • Pilpola, Sannamari
  • Lund, Peter D.

Abstract

Finland has ambitious climate targets and intends to ban the use of coal and halve the oil use by 2030, mainly based on traditional forest biomass and nuclear power. These policy choices, however, encompass sizeable risks for a low-carbon energy transition. Here we investigate alternative pathways for disruptive risks from such policies based on massive introduction on variable renewable electricity (VRE) with intersectoral coupling through Power-to-X technologies (P2X), also considering future demand uncertainties. We analyzed several risk-involving scenarios for years 2030 and 2050 using a national energy system model with 1-h resolution, which includes power, heat and fuel sectors. The results indicate that even in case of worst-case energy policy risks with nuclear and bioenergy, a feasible energy system solution can be found. Renewable energy resources were employed to their maximum potential levels with P2X flexibility options, especially Power-to-Heat. However, without energy efficiency measures, the present renewable energy resource base was not able to compensate for all primary energy fall-out, which would lead to higher system costs and CO2 emissions. This implies that in case of high dominance of a few energy sources, an alternative pathway may require strong energy efficiency measures and developing further the renewable energy resource base.

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  • Pilpola, Sannamari & Lund, Peter D., 2018. "Effect of major policy disruptions in energy system transition: Case Finland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 323-336.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:323-336
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.02.028
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    3. Pilpola, Sannamari & Lund, Peter D., 2020. "Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    4. Pingkuo, Liu & Huan, Peng, 2022. "What drives the green and low-carbon energy transition in China?: An empirical analysis based on a novel framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    5. Jaakko J. Jääskeläinen & Sakari Höysniemi & Sanna Syri & Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, 2018. "Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-25, September.
    6. Magdalena Zioło & Iwona Bąk & Anna Spoz, 2024. "The Role of Financial Markets in Energy Transitions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Anahita Farsaei & Sanna Syri & Ville Olkkonen & Ali Khosravi, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of National Climate Policy on International Electricity Markets—Case Finland’s Ban on Coal-Fired Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, April.
    8. Sannamari Pilpola & Vahid Arabzadeh & Jani Mikkola & Peter D. Lund, 2019. "Analyzing National and Local Pathways to Carbon-Neutrality from Technology, Emissions, and Resilience Perspectives—Case of Finland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-22, March.
    9. Vahid Arabzadeh & Peter D. Lund, 2020. "Effect of Heat Demand on Integration of Urban Large-Scale Renewable Schemes—Case of Helsinki City (60 °N)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, May.
    10. Plazas-Niño, F.A. & Ortiz-Pimiento, N.R. & Montes-Páez, E.G., 2022. "National energy system optimization modelling for decarbonization pathways analysis: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Majuri, Pirjo & Arola, Teppo & Kumpula, Anne & Vuorisalo, Timo, 2021. "Geoenergy permits in Finnish regional administration – Contradictory practices and inadequate judicial regulation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 151-159.

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