IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v237y2021ics0360544221017746.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Different investment dynamics in energy transition towards a 100% renewable energy system

Author

Listed:
  • Hrnčić, Boris
  • Pfeifer, Antun
  • Jurić, Filip
  • Duić, Neven
  • Ivanović, Vladan
  • Vušanović, Igor

Abstract

In order to mitigate the climate change process, the European Union has adopted a European Green Deal, which foresees zero net emissions of greenhouse gases for all member states by 2050. This paper investigates the possibility of achieving a 100 % renewable energy system that would meet the requirements set out in this agreement. Montenegro was used as a case study to analyse different energy transition pathways. Two scenarios with different dynamics of integrating renewable energy sources in the energy system were determined for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Scenarios were simulated and analysed in the EnergyPLAN model. Due to the large potential in Montenegro, hydropower plants will have a significant share in the production of electricity, but special attention was given to the integration of variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind energy. The analysis shows that it will be possible to achieve a 100 % renewable energy system in both scenarios with the implementation of energy efficiency measures, energy storage systems, synergies with the transportation sector, and balancing through demand response.

Suggested Citation

  • Hrnčić, Boris & Pfeifer, Antun & Jurić, Filip & Duić, Neven & Ivanović, Vladan & Vušanović, Igor, 2021. "Different investment dynamics in energy transition towards a 100% renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:237:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221017746
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121526
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221017746
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121526?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Calise & Massimo Dentice D’Accadia & Carlo Barletta & Vittoria Battaglia & Antun Pfeifer & Neven Duic, 2017. "Detailed Modelling of the Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios with Demand Response Technologies in the Heating and Cooling Sector: A Case Study for Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-33, October.
    2. Child, Michael & Breyer, Christian, 2016. "Vision and initial feasibility analysis of a recarbonised Finnish energy system for 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 517-536.
    3. Rasmussen, Morten Grud & Andresen, Gorm Bruun & Greiner, Martin, 2012. "Storage and balancing synergies in a fully or highly renewable pan-European power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 642-651.
    4. Kondziella, Hendrik & Bruckner, Thomas, 2016. "Flexibility requirements of renewable energy based electricity systems – a review of research results and methodologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 10-22.
    5. Lund, Henrik & Kempton, Willett, 2008. "Integration of renewable energy into the transport and electricity sectors through V2G," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3578-3587, September.
    6. Lund, Henrik, 2018. "Renewable heating strategies and their consequences for storage and grid infrastructures comparing a smart grid to a smart energy systems approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 94-102.
    7. Reichenberg, Lina & Hedenus, Fredrik & Odenberger, Mikael & Johnsson, Filip, 2018. "The marginal system LCOE of variable renewables – Evaluating high penetration levels of wind and solar in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 914-924.
    8. Jimenez-Navarro, Juan-Pablo & Kavvadias, Konstantinos & Filippidou, Faidra & Pavičević, Matija & Quoilin, Sylvain, 2020. "Coupling the heating and power sectors: The role of centralised combined heat and power plants and district heat in a European decarbonised power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    9. İnci, Mustafa & Büyük, Mehmet & Demir, Mehmet Hakan & İlbey, Göktürk, 2021. "A review and research on fuel cell electric vehicles: Topologies, power electronic converters, energy management methods, technical challenges, marketing and future aspects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Elliston, Ben & Diesendorf, Mark & MacGill, Iain, 2012. "Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 606-613.
    11. Huber, Matthias & Dimkova, Desislava & Hamacher, Thomas, 2014. "Integration of wind and solar power in Europe: Assessment of flexibility requirements," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 236-246.
    12. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2011. "The first step towards a 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 502-507, February.
    13. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Lionetti, Matteo & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Sparber, Wolfram & Moser, David, 2019. "Transition pathways optimization methodology through EnergyPLAN software for long-term energy planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 356-368.
    14. Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2009. "Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 524-531.
    15. Hedegaard, Karsten & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Heiselberg, Per, 2012. "Wind power integration using individual heat pumps – Analysis of different heat storage options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 284-293.
    16. Pfeifer, Antun & Dobravec, Viktorija & Pavlinek, Luka & Krajačić, Goran & Duić, Neven, 2018. "Integration of renewable energy and demand response technologies in interconnected energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 447-455.
    17. Kirkerud, Jon Gustav & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & Trømborg, Erik, 2017. "Power-to-heat as a flexibility measure for integration of renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 776-784.
    18. Kiviluoma, Juha & Meibom, Peter, 2010. "Influence of wind power, plug-in electric vehicles, and heat storages on power system investments," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1244-1255.
    19. Dorotić, Hrvoje & Doračić, Borna & Dobravec, Viktorija & Pukšec, Tomislav & Krajačić, Goran & Duić, Neven, 2019. "Integration of transport and energy sectors in island communities with 100% intermittent renewable energy sources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 109-124.
    20. Blakers, Andrew & Lu, Bin & Stocks, Matthew, 2017. "100% renewable electricity in Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 471-482.
    21. Dominković, D.F. & Bačeković, I. & Ćosić, B. & Krajačić, G. & Pukšec, T. & Duić, N. & Markovska, N., 2016. "Zero carbon energy system of South East Europe in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1517-1528.
    22. Dranka, Géremi Gilson & Ferreira, Paula, 2018. "Planning for a renewable future in the Brazilian power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 496-511.
    23. Meha, Drilon & Pfeifer, Antun & Duić, Neven & Lund, Henrik, 2020. "Increasing the integration of variable renewable energy in coal-based energy system using power to heat technologies: The case of Kosovo," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    24. Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2018. "Solar driven net zero emission electricity supply with negligible carbon cost: Israel as a case study for Sun Belt countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 87-104.
    25. Lynch, Muireann Á. & Tol, Richard S.J. & O'Malley, Mark J., 2012. "Optimal interconnection and renewable targets for north-west Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 605-617.
    26. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1183-1217.
    27. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Cozzini, Marco & Garegnani, Giulia & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Moser, David & Filippi Oberegger, Ulrich & Pernetti, Roberta & Vaccaro, Roberto & Sparber, Wolfram, 2018. "Multi-objective optimization algorithm coupled to EnergyPLAN software: The EPLANopt model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 213-221.
    28. Krajacic, Goran & Duic, Neven & Carvalho, Maria da Graça, 2011. "How to achieve a 100% RES electricity supply for Portugal?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 508-517, February.
    29. Abdin, Zainul & Zafaranloo, Ali & Rafiee, Ahmad & Mérida, Walter & Lipiński, Wojciech & Khalilpour, Kaveh R., 2020. "Hydrogen as an energy vector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    30. Pfeifer, Antun & Krajačić, Goran & Ljubas, Davor & Duić, Neven, 2019. "Increasing the integration of solar photovoltaics in energy mix on the road to low emissions energy system – Economic and environmental implications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1310-1317.
    31. Mason, I.G. & Page, S.C. & Williamson, A.G., 2010. "A 100% renewable electricity generation system for New Zealand utilising hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3973-3984, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Groppi, Daniele & Feijoo, Felipe & Pfeifer, Antun & Garcia, Davide Astiaso & Duic, Neven, 2023. "Analyzing the impact of demand response and reserves in islands energy planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    2. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "Detrended cross-correlation analysis in quantiles between oil price and the US stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. Neshat, Mehdi & Nezhad, Meysam Majidi & Sergiienko, Nataliia Y. & Mirjalili, Seyedali & Piras, Giuseppe & Garcia, Davide Astiaso, 2022. "Wave power forecasting using an effective decomposition-based convolutional Bi-directional model with equilibrium Nelder-Mead optimiser," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    4. Jurasz, Jakub & Piasecki, Adam & Hunt, Julian & Zheng, Wandong & Ma, Tao & Kies, Alexander, 2022. "Building integrated pumped-storage potential on a city scale: An analysis based on geographic information systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    5. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Danieli, Piero & Carraro, Gianluca & Volpato, Gabriele & Cin, Enrico Dal & Lazzaretto, Andrea & Masi, Massimo, 2024. "Guidelines for minimum cost transition planning to a 100% renewable multi-regional energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    7. Chen, Xiaoyuan & Zhang, Mingshun & Jiang, Shan & Gou, Huayu & Zhou, Pang & Yang, Ruohuan & Shen, Boyang, 2023. "Energy reliability enhancement of a data center/wind hybrid DC network using superconducting magnetic energy storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    8. Groppi, Daniele & Nastasi, Benedetto & Prina, Matteo Giacomo, 2022. "The EPLANoptMAC model to plan the decarbonisation of the maritime transport sector of a small island," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    9. Zhao, Ziwen & Ding, Xinjun & Behrens, Paul & Li, Jianling & He, Mengjiao & Gao, Yuanqiang & Liu, Gongcheng & Xu, Beibei & Chen, Diyi, 2023. "The importance of flexible hydropower in providing electricity stability during China’s coal phase-out," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    10. Fernando Martins & Pedro Moura & Aníbal T. de Almeida, 2022. "The Role of Electrification in the Decarbonization of the Energy Sector in Portugal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-35, February.
    11. Kamila Słupińska & Marek Wieruszewski & Piotr Szczypa & Anna Kożuch & Krzysztof Adamowicz, 2022. "Public Perception of the Use of Woody Biomass for Energy Purposes in the Evaluation of Content and Information Management on the Internet," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-11, September.
    12. Piero Danieli & Massimo Masi & Andrea Lazzaretto & Gianluca Carraro & Enrico Dal Cin & Gabriele Volpato, 2023. "Is Banning Fossil-Fueled Internal Combustion Engines the First Step in a Realistic Transition to a 100% RES Share?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-18, July.
    13. Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2024. "Climate change, energy security risk, and clean energy investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Michał Jasiński & Arsalan Najafi & Tomasz Sikorski & Paweł Kostyła & Jacek Rezmer, 2022. "Operation of an Energy Storage System Integrated with a Photovoltaic System and an Industrial Customer under Different Real and Pseudo-Real Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-27, November.
    15. Frković, Lovro & Ćosić, Boris & Pukšec, Tomislav & Vladimir, Nikola, 2022. "The synergy between the photovoltaic power systems and battery-powered electric ferries in the isolated energy system of an island," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    16. Haroon ur Rashid Khan & Usama Awan & Khalid Zaman & Abdelmohsen A. Nassani & Mohamed Haffar & Muhammad Moinuddin Qazi Abro, 2021. "Assessing Hybrid Solar-Wind Potential for Industrial Decarbonization Strategies: Global Shift to Green Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    17. Ramzan, Muhammad & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Iqbal, Hafiz Arslan & Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, 2023. "What's at Stake? The empirical importance of government revenue and debt and renewable energy for environmental neutrality in the US economy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 475-489.
    18. Hosseini Dehshiri, Seyyed Shahabaddin & Firoozabadi, Bahar, 2022. "A new application of measurement of alternatives and ranking according to compromise solution (MARCOS) in solar site location for electricity and hydrogen production: A case study in the southern clim," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    19. Bartolucci, L. & Cordiner, S. & Mulone, V. & Pasquale, S. & Sbarra, A., 2022. "Design and management strategies for low emission building-scale Multi Energy Systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    20. Chu, Baoju & Lin, Boqiang & Tian, Lichun & Zheng, Chaofeng & Ye, Nan & Zhu, Yafang & Tan, Zhizhou, 2024. "A long-term impact assessment of carbon capture (storage) investment conducted by conventional power company on sustainable development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    21. Arévalo, Paul & Cano, Antonio & Jurado, Francisco, 2024. "Large-scale integration of renewable energies by 2050 through demand prediction with ANFIS, Ecuador case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    22. Akdeniz, Halil Yalcin, 2022. "Landing and take-off (LTO) flight phase performances of various piston-prop aviation engines in terms of energy, exergy, irreversibility, aviation, sustainability and environmental viewpoints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    23. Bobrowski, Jakub & Łaska, Grażyna, 2023. "Using spatial elimination and ranking methods in the renewable energy investment parcel search process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    24. dos Santos, Fábio Sandro & do Nascimento, Kerolly Kedma Felix & da Silva Jale, Jader & Xavier, Sílvio Fernando Alves & Ferreira, Tiago A.E., 2024. "Brazilian wind energy generation potential using mixtures of Weibull distributions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    3. Raza, Muhammad Amir & Khatri, Krishan Lal & Hussain, Arslan, 2022. "Transition from fossilized to defossilized energy system in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 19-29.
    4. Maruf, Md. Nasimul Islam, 2021. "Open model-based analysis of a 100% renewable and sector-coupled energy system–The case of Germany in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    5. Diesendorf, Mark & Elliston, Ben, 2018. "The feasibility of 100% renewable electricity systems: A response to critics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 318-330.
    6. Mark Z. Jacobson & Anna-Katharina von Krauland & Zachary F.M. Burton & Stephen J. Coughlin & Caitlin Jaeggli & Daniel Nelli & Alexander J. H. Nelson & Yanbo Shu & Miles Smith & Chor Tan & Connery D. W, 2020. "Transitioning All Energy in 74 Metropolitan Areas, Including 30 Megacities, to 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-40, September.
    7. Ma, Weiwu & Xue, Xinpei & Liu, Gang, 2018. "Techno-economic evaluation for hybrid renewable energy system: Application and merits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 385-409.
    8. Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Sorknæs, Peter & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Chang, Miguel & Madsen, Poul Thøis & Kany, Mikkel Strunge & Skov, Iva Ridjan, 2022. "Smart energy Denmark. A consistent and detailed strategy for a fully decarbonized society," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Fernandes, Liliana & Ferreira, Paula, 2014. "Renewable energy scenarios in the Portuguese electricity system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 51-57.
    10. Elliston, Ben & MacGill, Iain & Diesendorf, Mark, 2013. "Least cost 100% renewable electricity scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 270-282.
    11. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Connolly, D. & Wenzel, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Möller, B. & Nielsen, S. & Ridjan, I. & Karnøe, P. & Sperling, K. & Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. "Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-154.
    12. Bellocchi, Sara & Manno, Michele & Noussan, Michel & Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Vellini, Michela, 2020. "Electrification of transport and residential heating sectors in support of renewable penetration: Scenarios for the Italian energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    13. Victoria, Marta & Gallego-Castillo, Cristobal, 2019. "Hourly-resolution analysis of electricity decarbonization in Spain (2017–2030)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 674-690.
    14. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    15. Jacobson, Mark Z. & Delucchi, Mark A. & Cameron, Mary A. & Mathiesen, Brian V., 2018. "Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 236-248.
    16. Vaiaso, T.V. Jr. & Jack, M.W., 2021. "Quantifying the trade-off between percentage of renewable supply and affordability in Pacific island countries: Case study of Samoa," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    17. Elliston, Ben & MacGill, Iain & Diesendorf, Mark, 2014. "Comparing least cost scenarios for 100% renewable electricity with low emission fossil fuel scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 196-204.
    18. Borasio, M. & Moret, S., 2022. "Deep decarbonisation of regional energy systems: A novel modelling approach and its application to the Italian energy transition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    19. Riesz, Jenny & Elliston, Ben, 2016. "Research and deployment priorities for renewable technologies: Quantifying the importance of various renewable technologies for low cost, high renewable electricity systems in an Australian case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 298-308.
    20. Pastore, Lorenzo Mario & Lo Basso, Gianluigi & Cristiani, Laura & de Santoli, Livio, 2022. "Rising targets to 55% GHG emissions reduction – The smart energy systems approach for improving the Italian energy strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:237:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221017746. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.