IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v68y2014icp301-310.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An energy system model for Hong Kong in 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Tao
  • Østergaard, Poul Alberg
  • Lund, Henrik
  • Yang, Hongxing
  • Lu, Lin

Abstract

Climate change and energy security are forcing Hong Kong to shift from a fossil fuel-based to a clean and low-carbon energy structure. In this article, a simulation model for Hong Kong's energy system is developed to examine the present energy structure and analyse alternative future sustainable energy strategies. First, a reference model is established and validated based on year 2009 data. Secondly, three scenarios are modelled. The BAU (business-as-usual) scenario for Hong Kong's energy system in 2020 is presented and simulated. To address the energy security and environmental sustainability challenges posed by the BAU outcomes, two alternative scenarios are then studied. The first alternative is a fuel mix for 2020 proposed by the government which is characterized by importing more nuclear power from the mainland. As a result of the Fukushima nuclear incident, however, this proposal has been held in abeyance. Therefore, a second alternative for Hong Kong in 2020 is proposed in this study, using more RE (renewable energy) to replace nuclear power. The results show that both the governmentally proposed scenario and the RE scenario can achieve the carbon reduction target. However, the RE scenario would be much better than the government scenario in terms of environmental, social benefits and long-term sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Tao & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Lund, Henrik & Yang, Hongxing & Lu, Lin, 2014. "An energy system model for Hong Kong in 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 301-310.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:68:y:2014:i:c:p:301-310
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.02.096
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214002436
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2014.02.096?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2012. "Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 275-282.
    2. Gota, Dan-Ioan & Lund, Henrik & Miclea, Liviu, 2011. "A Romanian energy system model and a nuclear reduction strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6413-6419.
    3. Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Stadler, Ingo, 2011. "Towards 100% renewable energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 419-421, February.
    4. Liu, Wen & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2011. "Large-scale integration of wind power into the existing Chinese energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 4753-4760.
    5. Lund, H & Münster, E, 2003. "Modelling of energy systems with a high percentage of CHP and wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(14), pages 2179-2193.
    6. Pillai, Jayakrishnan R. & Heussen, Kai & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2011. "Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3233-3243.
    7. Lam, Pun-Lee, 2004. "Hong Kong's electricity market beyond 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 851-854, May.
    8. Lund, Henrik & Munster, Ebbe, 2006. "Integrated energy systems and local energy markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1152-1160, July.
    9. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Nørgaard, P., 2008. "Integrated transport and renewable energy systems," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 107-116, June.
    10. Liu, Wen & Hu, Weihao & Lund, Henrik & Chen, Zhe, 2013. "Electric vehicles and large-scale integration of wind power – The case of Inner Mongolia in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 445-456.
    11. Sperling, Karl & Möller, Bernd, 2012. "End-use energy savings and district heating expansion in a local renewable energy system – A short-term perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 831-842.
    12. Lund, Henrik & Duić, Neven & Krajac˘ić, Goran & Graça Carvalho, Maria da, 2007. "Two energy system analysis models: A comparison of methodologies and results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 948-954.
    13. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2011. "The first step towards a 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 502-507, February.
    14. Hao, Xiaoli & Yang, Hongxing & Zhang, Guoqiang, 2008. "Trigeneration: A new way for landfill gas utilization and its feasibility in Hong Kong," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3662-3673, October.
    15. Kaldellis, J. K. & Kavadias, K. A., 2001. "Optimal wind-hydro solution for Aegean Sea islands' electricity-demand fulfilment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 333-354, December.
    16. Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2013. "Priority order in using biomass resources – Energy systems analyses of future scenarios for Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-94.
    17. Lund, Henrik & Kempton, Willett, 2008. "Integration of renewable energy into the transport and electricity sectors through V2G," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3578-3587, September.
    18. Lund, Henrik & Münster, Ebbe, 2006. "Integrated transportation and energy sector CO2 emission control strategies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 426-433, September.
    19. Nielsen, Steffen & Sorknæs, Peter & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2011. "Electricity market auction settings in a future Danish electricity system with a high penetration of renewable energy sources – A comparison of marginal pricing and pay-as-bid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4434-4444.
    20. Alberg Østergaard, Poul, 2003. "Transmission-grid requirements with scattered and fluctuating renewable electricity-sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-3), pages 247-255, September.
    21. Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2006. "Ancillary services and the integration of substantial quantities of wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(5), pages 451-463, May.
    22. Zhang, Xiaoling & Shen, Liyin & Chan, Sum Yee, 2012. "The diffusion of solar energy use in HK: What are the barriers?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 241-249.
    23. Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2000. "Electric grid and heat planning scenarios with centralised and distributed sources of conventional, CHP and wind generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 299-312.
    24. Ma, Zhenjun & Wang, Shengwei, 2009. "Building energy research in Hong Kong: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1870-1883, October.
    25. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    26. Lund, Henrik, 2005. "Large-scale integration of wind power into different energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(13), pages 2402-2412.
    27. Lu, Lin & Ip, Ka Yan, 2009. "Investigation on the feasibility and enhancement methods of wind power utilization in high-rise buildings of Hong Kong," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 450-461, February.
    28. Blarke, M.B. & Lund, H., 2008. "The effectiveness of storage and relocation options in renewable energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1499-1507.
    29. Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Lund, Henrik, 2011. "A renewable energy system in Frederikshavn using low-temperature geothermal energy for district heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 479-487, February.
    30. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "Modelling the existing Irish energy-system to identify future energy costs and the maximum wind penetration feasible," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2164-2173.
    31. Le, Ngoc Anh & Bhattacharyya, Subhes C., 2011. "Integration of wind power into the British system in 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 5975-5983.
    32. Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2009. "Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 524-531.
    33. Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2012. "The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a future sustainable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 469-476.
    34. Alberg Østergaard, Poul & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Möller, Bernd & Lund, Henrik, 2010. "A renewable energy scenario for Aalborg Municipality based on low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4892-4901.
    35. Lund, H., 2006. "Large-scale integration of optimal combinations of PV, wind and wave power into the electricity supply," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 503-515.
    36. Chow, Larry C.H., 2010. "Changes in energy intensiveness of Hong Kong economy, 1995-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2076-2085, May.
    37. Lam, J.C. & Ng, A.K.W., 1994. "Energy consumption in Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1157-1164.
    38. Close, Josie & Pang, Huey & Lam, K.H. & Li, Thomas, 2006. "10% from renewables? The potential contribution from an HK schools PV installation programme," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 1665-1672.
    39. Lund, H. & Münster, E., 2003. "Management of surplus electricity-production from a fluctuating renewable-energy source," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-3), pages 65-74, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2013. "Priority order in using biomass resources – Energy systems analyses of future scenarios for Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-94.
    3. Hong, Lixuan & Lund, Henrik & Möller, Bernd, 2012. "The importance of flexible power plant operation for Jiangsu's wind integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 499-507.
    4. Hong, Lixuan & Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & Raczkowski, Chris, 2013. "Assessment of China's renewable energy contribution during the 12th Five Year Plan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1533-1543.
    5. Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2012. "The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a future sustainable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 469-476.
    6. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Connolly, D. & Wenzel, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Möller, B. & Nielsen, S. & Ridjan, I. & Karnøe, P. & Sperling, K. & Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. "Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-154.
    7. Mahbub, Md Shahriar & Cozzini, Marco & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Alberti, Fabrizio, 2016. "Combining multi-objective evolutionary algorithms and descriptive analytical modelling in energy scenario design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 140-151.
    8. Vidal-Amaro, Juan José & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia, 2015. "Optimal energy mix for transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources – The case of the Mexican electricity system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 80-96.
    9. Ćosić, Boris & Krajačić, Goran & Duić, Neven, 2012. "A 100% renewable energy system in the year 2050: The case of Macedonia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 80-87.
    10. Oropeza-Perez, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2014. "The influence of an estimated energy saving due to natural ventilation on the Mexican energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1080-1091.
    11. Gota, Dan-Ioan & Lund, Henrik & Miclea, Liviu, 2011. "A Romanian energy system model and a nuclear reduction strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6413-6419.
    12. Liu, Wen & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2011. "Large-scale integration of wind power into the existing Chinese energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 4753-4760.
    13. Nielsen, Steffen & Sorknæs, Peter & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2011. "Electricity market auction settings in a future Danish electricity system with a high penetration of renewable energy sources – A comparison of marginal pricing and pay-as-bid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4434-4444.
    14. Ma, Weiwu & Xue, Xinpei & Liu, Gang, 2018. "Techno-economic evaluation for hybrid renewable energy system: Application and merits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 385-409.
    15. Zakeri, Behnam & Syri, Sanna & Rinne, Samuli, 2015. "Higher renewable energy integration into the existing energy system of Finland – Is there any maximum limit?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(P3), pages 244-259.
    16. Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul, 2014. "Assessment and evaluation of flexible demand in a Danish future energy scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 309-320.
    17. Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2009. "Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 524-531.
    18. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Werner, S. & Möller, B. & Persson, U. & Boermans, T. & Trier, D. & Østergaard, P.A. & Nielsen, S., 2014. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 475-489.
    19. Pillai, Jayakrishnan R. & Heussen, Kai & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2011. "Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3233-3243.
    20. Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2011. "100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 488-501, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:68:y:2014:i:c:p:301-310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.