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Mitigation potential of CO2 emissions from modal shift induced by subsidy in hinterland container transport

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  • Tao, Xuezong
  • Wu, Qin
  • Zhu, Lichao

Abstract

A comprehensive analytical framework is presented to assess the potential modal shift (MS) from road transport to rail/water transport and resulting carbon dioxide (CO2) emission mitigation induced by a subsidy policy in port-hinterland transport. In this framework, a modal share model based on a random coefficient logit model and an activity-based method are used to analyze the contribution of an incentive policy to the potential MS and corresponding CO2 emission mitigation. Stated preference survey, face-to-face interviews, and group discussions are employed to obtain the essential data. Case study result shows that a CO2 emission mitigation of 2,586.88t may be achieved with a subsidy of 200 RMB/TEU (Renminbi/20-feet equivalent unit) to the shippers who choose the road-rail combined transport chain in Yiwu City. Compared with the business-as-usual scenario without subsidy, the subsidy policy scenario can achieve a 3.2% MS from a road-only transport chain to a road-rail combined transport chain, as well as a 2.07% CO2 emission mitigation in the Yiwu-Ningbo container transport corridor. This finding reveals that the subsidies can serve as short-term solutions, but a policy package, including financial, technological, operational, and managerial measures, is required as a long-term strategy.

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  • Tao, Xuezong & Wu, Qin & Zhu, Lichao, 2017. "Mitigation potential of CO2 emissions from modal shift induced by subsidy in hinterland container transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 265-273.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:265-273
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.11.049
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