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The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts

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  • Ma, Xiaohan
  • Samaniego, Roberto

Abstract

We develop measures of oil earnings uncertainty (OEU) using analyst forecasts drawn from a large firm-level dataset. OEU is related to future economic downturns, so some OEU measures may serve to forecast future downturns. An increase in OEU also has adverse effects on the US oil sector. The results are robust to conditioning on aggregate uncertainty. At the same time, OEU is related to increases in stock prices – unlike aggregate uncertainty, which has the opposite effect. OEU is thus an independent influence on both the oil industry and on economic aggregates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Xiaohan & Samaniego, Roberto, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:90:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320301729
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104832
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    3. Koirala, Niraj Prasad & Ma, Xiaohan, 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and U.S. employment growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Ma, Xiaohan, 2023. "Oil uncertainty and the price-cost markup: Evidence from U.S. data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Kale, Arati & Kale, Devendra, 2023. "Do exogenous economic crises change investors’ response to earnings announcements?: A detailed review using the data from COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Elder, John & Payne, James E., 2024. "Oil price uncertainty shocks and the gender gap in U.S. unemployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
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    8. Ponomareva, Natalia & Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2024. "Metal and energy price uncertainties and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Marc Gronwald & Sania Wadud & Kingsley Dogah, 2024. "Oil Market Efficiency, Quantity of Information, and Oil Market Turbulence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10995, CESifo.
    10. Elder, John & Payne, James E., 2023. "Racial and ethnic disparities in unemployment and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil earnings uncertainty; Business cycles; Oil markets; Analyst forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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