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Higher moment risk premiums for the crude oil market: A downside and upside conditional decomposition

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  • Da Fonseca, José
  • Xu, Yahua

Abstract

Relying on options written on the USO, an exchange traded fund tracking the daily price changes of the WTI light sweet crude oil, we extract variance and skew risk premiums in a model-free way. We further decompose these risk premiums into downside and upside conditional components and show that they can be partially explained by USO excess returns and, more importantly, these decomposed risk premiums enable a much better prediction of USO excess returns than the standard, or undecomposed, variance and skew risk premiums. A comparison with existing results for the equity index option market further confirms the usefulness of the decomposition for the crude oil market.

Suggested Citation

  • Da Fonseca, José & Xu, Yahua, 2017. "Higher moment risk premiums for the crude oil market: A downside and upside conditional decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 410-422.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:410-422
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.08.024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wong, Patrick, 2023. "Explaining intraday crude oil returns with higher order risk-neutral moments," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    2. Da Fonseca, José & Ignatieva, Katja, 2019. "Jump activity analysis for affine jump-diffusion models: Evidence from the commodity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 45-62.
    3. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2018. "Risk-neutral moments in the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 583-600.
    4. Zhang, Xinxin & Bouri, Elie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Gongqiu, 2022. "The asymmetric relationship between returns and implied higher moments: Evidence from the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Xiaolan Jia & Xinfeng Ruan & Jin E. Zhang, 2021. "The implied volatility smirk of commodity options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 72-104, January.
    6. Zhang, Zhengyong & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Tail risk transmission from commodity prices to sovereign risk of emerging economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2019. "Moment spreads in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 598-609.
    8. Jia, Xiaolan & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2023. "Carr and Wu’s (2020) framework in the oil ETF option market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil market; Variance risk premium; Skew risk premium; Conditional risk premiums; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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